The Scouts Notebook

Tommy has been on here talking to you about corners and linebackers lately. I can respect that, but nothing gets me more excited than watching a big, sweaty lineman. Wait – I mean – well Buddy Ryan would be on my side here so I couldn’t care less what you think.

Battles are won at the point of attack and with the draft just over a week away I felt it imperative that we talk about some of the top defensive tackles in this class. The Combine, Twitter and social media have set what I’d call a “social value” to some of these players that I just don’t feel holds up on film.

Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State – I’ve believed firmly for some time now that Cox is not only the top defensive tackle in this class, but that the gap between him and the others is not close. He is a scheme diverse player that can not only play in the 3-4 or 4-3, but could start at either end or tackle in the latter. I’ve heard comparisons from NFL personnel and “couch scouts” I respect just as much of Cox to guys like Ty Warren, Kevin Williams and Richard Seymour now. Personally, I see a lot of a younger Cullen Jenkins in him. I have him 7th on my personal value board and there are a mine field of teams picks 7 through 15 that could use his services.

Michael Brockers, DT LSU – I saw Brockers be dominant and at times, get handled a little bit. That said, he’s playing in the SEC and is only a sophomore with a lot to learn. I love the idea of what he could become. Michael has an amount of athleticism to him that I don’t see in most two-gap linemen. His feet are quick and his body control is far above average. Some have talked about his “pass rushing skills” – there aren’t any. I don’t know what tape they watched. This is a disciplined player who does his job the right way. Again, Brockers is going to appeal to both 3-4 and 4-3 teams. Now, the one projection I’ve seen from many analysts is NFL teams drafting him as a 3-4 nose tackle because I don’t see that as a fit at all. To me, you’ve got a five-tech or a nose tackle in a four-front here.

Dontari Poe, DT Memphis – Dontari really is the poster child of what the Combine, Twitter and social media can do for a player. If you read or listen to some people, he’s a dominant inside presence. If you simply watch any Memphis game he gets dominated at times by absolutely inferior competition and also tries to be Dwight Freeney at 346 pounds. His first step is outstanding, but I’m not bringing him into my organization to rush the passer – I want him to take on two men and crush their will. I can honestly say he is player that will go in the 1st round whose film was the most unimpressive. Of course his upside is what is going to draw teams in because his Combine performance is already legendary and that can’t be ignored. As Tommy has said to me when talking about Poe, “When drafting him you have to accept that this is a player that could be a complete bust.”

At this point those are the three players I think are guaranteed to go in the 1st round. Jerel Worthy is the fourth I could see creeping in as there are teams like the Broncos who do have a ridiculous need at the position and Worthy’s value is somewhere in the 1 or 2 range.

The NFL Draft is a mere 10 days away. Tommy and Matt are working diligently to update scouting reports, mock drafts, and the top 100 and they’re two of the best in the industry at it. I’m not. I simply have some juicy blackmail over Tommy and Matt and strong armed them into letting me write this column or else the photos of them enjoying tofu together will surface.

But what I can bring you are some of the storylines that are going to come out of the draft that fans need to pay attention to. Andrew Luck and RG3 are going 1 and 2, most likely in that order. After that, the rest of the top 10 could get very, very interesting. The Vikings are at #3 and all logic dictates they will take Matt Kalil, OT from USC, to be their LT for the next decade. It’s a safe pick and great value. The question is will someone make them an offer they can’t refuse? Continue reading →

As the draft approaches the public is constantly inundated with rumors of trade ups, players climbing and players falling. It’s that time of year where those of us sick enough to dedicate our lives to the three-day event are sweaty-palmed and jumping at every tweet, article or whisper. It’s ridiculous.

When I say it’s ridiculous – keep in mind I’m doing the same thing all of you are. I’m no different or better. I’m just as pathetic.

One thing I did want to take some time to talk about though is value and a few players I consider to be premium prospects. Every year you have Top 10 picks, but you don’t always have ten premium players. Those are the guys you need to get on your roster.

In my opinion, this year there are five premium players – Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Matt Kalil. While the sixth ranked player may only be one slot below them, the natural talent gap and lesser potential of the following player is a big difference if I’m sitting in the GM chair.

I bring this up for a reason. While everyone does their mock drafts – including me – in the end you can’t spend top dollar on an imposter.

Specifically, let’s talk about Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd – whichever wide receiver you have rated higher. Sure, the St. Louis Rams really need a wideout. It’s really sad looking at what they’ve got at the position.

That said if Morris Claiborne is on the table you have to take him. Let’s make this a simple exercise…

Do you think Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd are the caliber players that Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald are? I’m sure 95-percent of you reading this said no.

You wouldn’t draft Roddy White, Greg Jennings or Hakeem Nicks with the 6th overall pick in the draft, especially over what could be an elite NFL cornerback.

Morris Claiborne has elite ability and ridiculous potential. If you’ve watched enough of him even as a fan, you’ve seen him effortlessly run down field covering a defender, make a circus interception displaying tremendous ball skills and then instantly turn into an offensive player taking the ball the other way.

If you think of what a player like Antonio Cromartie did at his best when he was with the Chargers, that’s Claiborne. Ridiculous ball skills. He can be an Asante Samuel or a Champ Bailey type of player. You don’t pass on those players because of need.

Surely enough, some of you might be wondering about Trent Richardson or Ryan Tannehill.

As I said before, Richardson is in my opinion one of the elite. I believe he’s the best running back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. Also, he shared the ball until this season, so he has a ton of tread left on the tires. If those two are on the board – pick your poison.

With Tannehill, I understand the need for a franchise QB in the NFL. It’s a premium and these days – it’s higher than ever. That said I would never draft Ryan Tannehill before Morris Claiborne.

The point of all of this is two-fold. One, as fun as it is to change picks in mocks to create different situations; I expect those five to be the first off the board on day one.

Second, I expect movement by way of trade in picks 6 through 10. In fact, after Tannehill is moved up for there could be a mass exodus this year. The teams picking in those areas simply have too many holes to fill and it’s a buyer’s market for teams wanting to move up.

So, we’ll see how wrong or right I am on draft day. My point is that if I’m running the draft room – I don’t pass on premier talent for very good talent that’s a big need. That’s how you lose your job.

Does the free agency period tell us anything about the draft?  If so, Luke Kuechly won’t be a Top 10 pick.  Top 15?  Could he slide?

We just had the deepest crop of ILBs in free agency in a long, long time.  Teams could choose from Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, David Hawthorne, London Fletcher, and even lesser guys like Barrett Ruud and Jameel McClain.  None of those guys got the deals they wanted.  Teams sat and waited and waited until the players caved in and signed lesser deals.  Simply put, MLB ain’t what it used to be.

We have a talented group in the draft.  Luke Kuechly (aka Luke Kuechwalker), Mychal Kendricks, and James-Michael Johnson are all 4-3 guys.  Dont’a Hightower might be, but can be a star in the 3-4.

The question now is how early Kuechly goes.  12 to KC?  13 to ARZ?  15 to PHI?  Is there anyway a Top 10 team could take him?  Based on how FA played out, you might have to shift your thinking.  Maybe 15 is the earliest he goes.  Maybe Luke slides into the 20s.

Is Hightower a lock for the 1st round?  Do the Steelers grab him or does he slide into the 2nd round?  Kendricks is value in the mid to late 2nd.  JMJ should be a 3rd round pick.

The flip side is that we saw OGs get big deals.  Carl Nicks, Ben Grubbs, and Evan Mathis had teams willing to give them major money.  Does that mean that David DeCastro and Cordy Glenn will be Top 15 players for sure?  Will Amini Solatu sneak into the 1st round?

We know some people will slide.  Will it be Luke/Dont’a or DeCastro/Glenn?  Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

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How weak is the TE class?  The guys generating buzz are players like Taylor Thompson and Derek Carrier.

Thompson was a star TE coming out of HS.  He went to SMU and became a DE.  Scouts had him work out as a TE at an all star game and then again at his Pro Day.  Thompson put up terrific numbers and looked good in the TE drills.  Gil Brandt thinks he could be a Top 100 player.  Here are the workout numbers:

6-6, 259
4.58
VJ – 37 inches
BJ – 10’6
SS – 4.41
3C – 7.40
22 reps

Amazingly, the only major difference in his workout and Jimmy Graham’s is the 3-cone time.  Other than that, very similar (size too).

Derek Carrier played at Beloit.  He was so far under the radar that they had to track him with sonar.  Not any more.  Check out his workout numbers:

6-3, 239
4.50
VJ – 38 inches
BJ – 10’2
SS – 4.07
3C – 6.65

Wow, huh?  The agility times (SS/3-cone) are phenomenal for a guy with his size.  Is he a big WR or TE?

TE is one of those spots where it doesn’t matter where you came from.  You can have 10 career catches or 200.  All that matters is that you have a good combination of size and athletic ability.  Beloit has a good frame and he absolutely has NFL athleticism.  I can’t wait to see where he’s drafted and how he plays.

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Adam Schefter is reporting that the Vikings would like to move out of pick 3.  Say what?  Stay there and take Matt Kalil.  Do the safe, smart thing.  I think the Vikings are trying to see if anyone wants their pick.  I fully anticipate them shopping it publicly and then staying put to take Kalil.  We’ll see.

Quick stuff today…

Texas A&M has a pair of talented Senior CBs.  Coryell Judie missed a lot of time due to injury and then had a strange Combine showing.  He ran in the upper 4.4s, which is plenty fast.  His SS and 3-cone times were terrible for a guy who is 194 pounds.

Terrence Frederick lit it up in Indy.  He’s 5-10, 187 and ran in the mid-4.5s, which is only okay.  He was exceptionally good in the SS and 3-cone drills.  That kind of quickness and agility shows up on tape.  Gifted athlete.  Played in the slot on a regular basis for A&M and NFL teams could like him there.  Frederick finished his career with 22 TFLs so you know he can tackle and play the run.  Also had 30 PBUs.  Probably a 5th round guy, but could be a good role player.

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CB Asa Jackson from Cal-Poly “only” had 8 career INTs.  Good total, but hardly special.  What he did once he made the catch did stand out.  Jackson had 5 returns of at least 46 yards.  He took one back 100 yards for a TD.  3 of the 8 picks were run back for scores.  Impressive I-AA player.

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Mike Mayock isn’t a fan of DE Quinton Coples.  Mike said on Path To The Draft that he would not take Coples in the 1st round.  Wow.  That’s strong stuff from Mayock.  I doubt 32 NFL teams would agree with him, but it does make you wonder if Coples will slide a bit.

Mayock’s big complaint with Coples is the lack of good Senior tape.  Coples was very good in 2010, but just pedestrian as a Senior.  He did have a strong showing at the Senior Bowl, but history is littered with guys who looked good in Mobile after a down regular season and then flamed out in the NFL.

I think Mayock is being a bit overly harsh.  Coples was out of position at RDE in 2011.  He’s just not an explosive guy.  Put him at LDE and he looks much more natural.  I do agree that I’d have a hard time spending an early pick on the guy.  Still, it would hard to pass on 6-6, 284 DEs that have good natural ability.  Those guys aren’t available in every draft.  Also factor in that UNC didn’t have coach Butch Davis in 2011 and the program went through a very strange season.

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Clemson TE Dwayne Allen confuses me.  On tape, he’s terrific.  Can play TE, H-back, or slot receiver.  Great hands.  Athletic.  Good production.

Then he goes to the Combine and runs 4.89.  VJ is only 32.  TE is a spot where you need to be athletic.  His workout numbers are actually pretty close to Eagles TE Brent Celek’s (and both were 255 pounds) so it isn’t like Allen is awful.  Point is … do you draft him in the 2nd round?  His game tape is really good.  I don’t want to overlook that.

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I’ve been a fan of TE Michael Egnew since at least the Senior Bowl.  He had a great workout in Indy.  Ran the 40 in .27 seconds faster than Allen.  Almost out-jumped him by 2 feet in the broad jump (21 inches).  And Egnew is a very good pass catcher.  I wonder how many teams could have Egnew ahead of Allen or Orson Charles?

Oklahoma TE James Hanna had a great workout in Indy and flashed on game tape, but he’s more of a project.

I haven’t talked enough about CB Josh Norman. He really came into prominence at the Shrine Game practices. Everyone raved about him. Norman had a terrific career, but he played at Coastal Carolina and it is easy to fly under the radar at a small school like that.

I’ve been adjusting CB rankings and went back to re-watch some game tape on Norman. He really is an impressive player. He loves to be a physical press corner. He’s athletic enough to also back off and play trail coverage. Norman dominated the Big South competition he faced. He has NFL size at 6-0, 197. He can jolt receivers with a good jam at the LOS. If he did give them a clean release, he’s able to turn and run with them.    Continue reading →

So, I wasn’t going to write about this as I find it rather unimportant, but it keeps getting brought up. I had only found a 12 question “primer” test before and let’s face it — that’s not real.

This morning, I found a full 50-question sample test floating out there. I wanted to see how well I’d do. Am I Morris Claiborne wielding out a 4 or Ryan Fitzpatrick with a 48? Knowing how many braincells I killed between the years of 1999 and 2004 I figured my score would end up somewhere in the middle and hopefully respectable as this story was going up regardless.

First was the set-up. These players have their future on the line. If they screw up it could cost them millions of dollars. You and I have been to job interviews, but I don’t think we’ve ever felt the pucker they’ve had. I had to figure out something that would truly make my blood curdle.

The best thing I could think was to annoy myself through the worst distraction — Soulja Boy’s “Put My Swag On”. The worst “song” ever recorded. I cranked the volume so loud that I guarantee my neighbors were wondering if I was sacrificing a lamb in my basement War Room.

No NFL prospect knows the pain I endured for those 12 minutes while that song repeated.

Onto the test…

Started out easy enough, until Math kicked in. Devil Math. Skip, skip, skip. We’ll come back to you once the fear goes away. I breezed through the 50 questions and had just under 3 minutes to spare — hence was my plan.

Then I came back and put my Will Hunting hat. It didn’t fit. I successfully stink at Math, but I pulled out from behind the Guinness soaked brain cells. (Thank you Guinness).

Final Score? 39 of 50.

That puts me right on par with Eli Manning and just below Alex Smith. Take that 49ers!! I told you I was worth $50 million!!

Which leads me back to why I’m tired of hearing about the Wonderlic — who gives a crap? I can’t throw a football. I probably run about a 5.4 40-yard dash if I don’t fall over while attempting it. I’m 6-foot-3, 260 pounds (30 is cheesesteak coating), but an NFL offensive lineman would just laugh at me while I ran away.

My biggest accomplishment on the football field was a 22 tackle, 12 tackle for loss performance against Northern High School in high school — and the stadium announcer couldn’t even pronounce my name right. I’m not even freaking Al Bundy.

Look, if I’m an NFL team I care about the Wonderlic at QB, S and center. That’s it. If there’s a low score there I want to bring those guys in and just check them out on the chalk board. If they check out, I’m drafting them.

Some people don’t test well. I have a family member who barely scored over a 700 on their SAT. They run multiple hospitals now and make big bucks. I scored a 1370 on mine. Big deal. I test well.

It’s time to put this baby to rest. It’s becoming less of a useful tool and more of a way to mock players.

Until a study is done that shows a correlation between success in the NFL and your Wonderlic score; I simply don’t care.

I’ll take guys like Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Cam Newton and Donovan McNabb (without his incessant whining) anyday to be my franchise QB.

You can have Ryan Fitzpatrick (not saying he’s bad, but c’mon.)

Now I need to go listen to at least two hours of Zeppelin to get that song out of my head.

by NFL Gimpy

Welcome to the sugar overdosed MAQB! My house is full of candy and baked goods and the writers at ScoutsNotebook are not exactly known for our svelte figures, so I’m eating waaaay too much. We’re built for power, not squeezing through tight hallways. So, between a sugar overdose and too much travel, I’m going to make this column short and sweet.

This time of year is one of the most interesting in the NFL due to misinformation, rumors, speculation, and mancrushes. Everyone who follows the draft inevitably has some mancrushes. A lot of times it’ll be an elite prospect like Eric Berry that has fans drooling. Other times it’ll be a workout warrior that rarely showed up on tape like Bruce Campbell who gets pumped up by fans as a first round pick when front offices see him as a mid round guy. My 2011 mancrush was Colin Kaepernick.

In-between all of the hype for overrated players, rumors of who covets who, and crazy theories, this time of year is underrated free agent signing time. NFL teams are like coupon clipping soccer Moms at TJ Maxx this time of year. They’re looking for bargain basement deals on players that still have a lot to offer. Here’s a few players who have signed deals in the past week or so: David Hawthorne (Saints), Luis Castillo (Chargers), Demetress Bell (Eagles), Derek Landri (Eagles), Barrett Ruud (Seahawks), Amobi Okoye (Bucs) and Deuce Lutui (Seahawks).     Continue reading →

Greg Cosell was talking draft on Twitter over the weekend.  He said that he thinks Georgia OL Cordy Glenn can play LT.  I have him rated as a OG because I think he’s a long shot to play OT in the NFL.  Glenn doesn’t have great feet.  He’s also not a natural knee bender.

I do think it is possible that a team who likes massive OTs and who has a QB that gets rid of the ball quickly could be interested.  This could be the Buffalo Bills at pick 10.  And GM Buddy Nix loves prospects from the South.  The SEC and ACC have long been his favorite spots for finding players.

I don’t think Glenn is worth pick 10, but part of that is because I see him as a G prospect.  If a team likes him and sees him as LT material, Glenn might actually make some sense at pick 10.  You also wonder about the Cardinals with pick 13.  They need an OT.  Russ Grimm has coached a lot of big guys in Arizona and from his days with the Steelers.   Maybe Glenn will be a Top 15 pick.

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This is a weak Safety class, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some interesting targets.  3 late round guys I like are Jerron McMillian, Charles Mitchell, and Tavon Wilson.

I’ve written about McMillian a few times.  SS from Maine.  Real good run defender.  Downhill guy that loves to fly up in run support.  Had a good workout at the Combine and proved to be a better athlete than I expected.

Mitchell played at Mississippi State.  I watched tape of him last summer and he was so-so.  Didn’t really catch my eye.  I was watching Fletcher Cox recently and kept noticing this #4 flying around and make tackles.  That was Mitchell.  He played a lot better than I remembered from last summer.  I watched some more tape of him and stayed impressed.  Check out his profile.

Wilson is a guy that I watched quickly during the season.  Played CB for Illinois and wasn’t impressive.  Recently I saw teams were setting up lots of visits with him.  Turns out he played Safety in 2010 and teams like him as a Safety.  I watched some old tape and sure enough he is impressive.  Natural Safety despite the fact most of his experience is at CB.  Intriguing.  Unlike Mitchell and McMillian, Wilson has some coverage potential.

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On the flip side, I don’t get the buzz on Harrison Smith, the Senior Safety from Notre Dame.  Good player.  Good prospect.  Mike Mayock has said that some teams have a 1st round grade on him.  I just don’t see that.

Smith is talented.  On his best day, maybe he looks like a 1st rounder.  He certainly did have a good showing at the Combine.  Problem for me is that I watched a few games and didn’t see him play at a consistently high level.  I currently have him ranked behind Antonio Allen in the Safety rankings.  I’m sure Mayock and the teams that love Smith will think I’m nuts.  I know what/who Allen is.  Smith, I’m not so sure.  Could be a good NFL starter, but far from a lock.

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The more I watch of Utah State LB Bobby Wagner, the more I like him.  He has the toughness to be an ILB.  Will take on blockers and is a good run defender.  Athletic enough for OLB and is a playmaker.  I recently re-watched some of the Senior Bowl practices and game.  Wagner showed just how good he can be.  Tough, athletic, physical, playmaker.

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The more I watch of QB Brock Osweiler the less I get the hype.  His game tape isn’t that good.  His raw talent isn’t that impressive.  He could be a starting QB in the NFL, but needs a ton of work.  And he just doesn’t look special at all to me.  I wouldn’t touch him with a ten-foot pole if I was running an NFL team.

Everyday we find out which players have been visiting which teams.  We find out which players are doing private workouts for specific teams.  This can be really useful information, but also highly confusing.

The biggest thing to understand is that players have to be judged on an individual basis.  Think about the scouting process.  In a little over a month, scouts will begin gathering information on rising Seniors for the 2013 draft.  Teams will spend 6 to 7 months studying, interviewing, and researching those Senior players.  That is a long, arduous process.

In late December and early January underclassmen will declare for the draft.  Teams have much less time to research and study them.  Those prospects can’t play in the Senior Bowl or Shrine Game so teams don’t have that avenue to watch them.  The Scouting Combine is the first time when teams get to meet underclassmen up close.    Continue reading →