The Scouts Notebook

by NFL Gimpy

The NFL Draft starts on Thursday. At this point, we still don’t know who the #1 overall pick will be. There are some really good guesses, but it’s more or less a coin flip at this point. I’ve continually said that this is going to be one of the most interesting drafts we’ve had in a long time. The lack of a top flight QB is the start of the confusion. This will most likely be the first draft since 2008 where a QB isn’t taken 1^st overall (Matt Ryan, 3^rd pick). There’s also a good chance it’s the first draft since 2000 that a QB isn’t taken in the top 3 (Chad Pennington, 18^th pick to the Jets in the Tom Brady draft). Tommy posted positional rankings and David has gone through team by team needs. As always, I like a macro-level perspective on things so I will go over what to look for with each position over the first 2 rounds and what to watch for.

QB: The biggest crapshoot in the draft, more so than usual. Geno Smith is the top QB for most, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the top guy. Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley could steal that spot depending on who drafts a QB first and which QB they covet. The next question is how many QBs go in the first round. It could be as few as 1 and as many as 4. The main thing to watch for is how many go in the 1^st round. A few teams may trade from the 2^nd round back up into the 1^st to get their man. If the 1^st round is slow on QBs, the 2^nd round will be crazy. There could be great value in the 3^rd round at QB as well, depending on a lot of factors. I’ve been a huge fan of Zac Dysert as a 3^rd round pick with great upside.

RB: Without a top guy like Trent Richardson was last year, it’s certainly debatable whether or not a RB will be drafted in the 1^st round. There are several RB needy teams (Steelers, Broncos, Rams, Jets…) but there aren’t that many 1^st round caliber RBs. I’ve seen Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, and Jonathan Franklin listed as the top guy. What’s important to note with RBs is that it’s a position where a rookie can make an immediate impact even if he isn’t a high 1^st round pick. Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris all were worthy of their starting roles and only 1 was a high 1^st round pick. David Wilson of the Giants came on strong late in the season with 247 rushing yards and 3 TDs in his last 4 games.

NFL teams know this and won’t invest a high 1^st in a RB unless he’s special. None of these guys are special. Watch for the first RB go to off the board because it could trigger the following 2 to come off very soon after. With 3 RBs who are likely ranked 6 different ways by NFL Teams, there could be a mini-run on RBs in the late 1^st or early 2^nd round. One other thing to watch for is Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore could easy have been the top RB if it wasn’t for a gruesome knee injury. He’s easily one of my favorite players in the draft and I hope he gets the chance to shine in 2014.

TE: This is one of my favorite positions in the draft this year because it’s full of players who should translate into starters yet there aren’t many teams who have a big need. This means someone is going to steal an impact player in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. There could be 1 or 2 guys in the first round, Tyler Eifert and/or Zach Ertz. Travis Kelce is a great prospect with some character concerns around him that I’ve heard are overblown, but still not something you write off.

WR: WR is an extremely deep position with a lot slightly flawed talents. Tavon Austin is one of the most dynamic playmakers college football has seen the past few years, but his short stature (5’8”) hurts his stock a little. Cordarrelle  Patterson and Justin Hunter have had issues with drops. Keenan Allen has knee issues. There are 6 or 7 guys who will likely go in the top 2 rounds and all but Austin are 6’1 or taller. Look to see how much Austin’s height pushes him down. If he’s not one of the top 2 WRs taken, someone will be thanking the football gods. The NFL is a passing league; you need great pass catchers and there’s a lot of potential in this group.

OT: It is a close to a foregone conclusion that 3 OTs will go in the top 10. Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, and Eric Fisher are all LT prospects and in a pass heavy league they’re highly valued. The order they go in will be based off of individual preference of the teams who draft them. The main thing to look for is next 3 or 4 guys off the board, guys like Menelik Watson, Justin Pugh, and Terron Armstead. Watson and Armstead are great athletes who need a little seasoning. Pugh isn’t as great of an athlete, but is much more of a finished product. When these 3 get drafted will have a big impact on picks 15-40. If they go in the top 30, it means some very talented players will get pushed down further than they should.   Continue reading →

Just some random stuff for today.

* Let’s talk about D.J. Hayden, the CB from Houston. I’ve not mentioned him much at all because he was a medical mystery. Hayden took a hit in practice during the year and almost died. It crushed his inferior vena cava.  NFL teams weren’t sure what to make of Hayden. Can you draft a guy who almost died from a routine hit?

Apparently teams are comfortable with him. Mike Mayock, who is well-connected to teams, has put Hayden at the top of his CB rankings. Adam Caplan, also well-connected, has heard that Hayden could go in the 20 to 30 range.

I like Hayden a lot based on game tape. The best compliment I can give to a player is that he plays with a great sense of urgency. Hayden does just that. Way too many CBs are casual. If the ball doesn’t come their way, they relax. Hayden chases plays all over the field. He wants to make every tackle. I love that. Not only does he hustle, he’s fast, tackles well, and takes good pursuit angles. Hayden saved a few TDs for Houston by chasing players down from behind when they appeared to be headed for the endzone.

A lot of times the players who play like that are not very talented. They make up for the lack of talent with great effort. That’s not the case with Hayden. He is extremely talented. Hayden is fast, quick, and athletic. He has very good hands. He is a skilled CB. Hayden is good at jumping routes and playing the ball.

In the last 2 years, Hayden had 6 INTs, 19 PDs, 6 FFs, and 9.5 TFLs. He ran 3 of the picks back for TDs. So you have a CB with skills, speed, athleticism, and who likes to play the run and tackle. This is a really gifted player. I don’t think all 32 teams will have Hayden on their draft boards. It will be interesting to see how much some teams do like him. Is he the first CB taken? Is he a Top 20 player? Does he go in the 1st round?

* FSU star Tank Carradine had his workout today. Early reports say that he ran a 4.75 at 273 pounds. Why is this a big deal? He tore his ACL in late November. He’s making a speedy recovery and might just be able to be a factor in 2013. He could still be a Top 20 pick, but team doctors will be the key guys in determining his value.

* Some raw notes on Richmond S Cooper Taylor. He is 6-4, 229.

“Massive Safety. Looks like a LB. Plays like one at times. Lines up on the LOS on a regular basis. Is withing 10 yards of the LOS on almost every snap. At times he looks like a star. JMU lined up in the Ace formation and ran at Taylor. He drove the TE backward, shed him, and stuffed the RB. A few plays later the TE drove him 5 yards off the ball. Can cover TEs. Didn’t get a feel for him against WRs. Wrap-up tackler, but didn’t drive through his targets forcefully. Showed good range vs the run. Good speed. Some teams could consider him a SAM. Taylor will take on pulling OL and has the size/strength to win some of those battles.”

* Some raw notes on James Madison OG Earl Watford.

“ LG. Active, athletic blocker. Pulls a lot. Does a good job of blocking on the move. Has good feet. Plays under control. Can move laterally or turn his hips and get outside. Shows good awareness. Chooses his targets wisely. Gets into position to block. Doesn’t lunge for targets, even in space. Uses his hands well. Solid pass protector. Lacks the size to be a dominating drive blocker.”

* San Jose State TE Ryan Otten has some fans. I’m skeptical. He is 6-5, 230 and has pretty good speed. He averaged 16 yards per reception and showed the ability to stretch the field at times. My big issue is that Otten is slow out of his stance. He lacks quickness. That worked at SJSU, but will be a major issue in the NFL. He’s worth a late round pick, but will need some work.

* Oregon State WR Markus Wheaton has some strong supporters. Count me among them. He’s got the speed to get behind defenses. He’s also a polished WR that can get open on short and underneath routes. He’ll even block when asked to.

* Safety Don Jones of Arkansas State has been getting a lot of attention from NFL teams. He is a really interesting player. Jones is 5-11, 191, but mostly played near the LOS for ASU. He would line up in the slot at times. He can cover. He also showed the ability to blitz and pressure the QB. Jones got my attention with his run defense. He was able to move through traffic and get to the ball.  Good tackler. Plays bigger than his size. Good speed and has some explosion to his game.

* DE Margus Hunt (6-8, 277) has grown on me. I was highly critical of him early on as a workout warrior. Seeing his pedestrian performance at the Senior Bowl bugged me. I’ve since studied a few games. He was really good against Tulane. He gave QB Ryan Griffin fits in that game. Hunt showed the ability to fly off the edge, but also pressure up the middle as a 3-tech DL. His age (26 this year) still bugs me. Hunt is at his physical peak. I would be willing to spend a 2nd round pick on him.

* Joe Kruger (6-6, 269) is just the opposite. I like him quite a bit as well, but Kruger is just 20 years old. He is scratching the surface of how good he can be. Kruger only started 14 games in his 3 years at Utah. I currently have him slotted as a 5th rounder, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him even go in the 4th. Kruger is tailor-made for the 3-4. He can bulk up to 285 and carry it well. He’s a good athlete and has some pass rush ability. Really good potential, but will need some time.

by David Syvertsen

How They Finished in 2012:

Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Detroit Lions (4-12)

DETROIT LIONS

#5 (1st)
#36 (2nd)
#65 (3rd)
#132 (4th) Comp
#137 (4th)
#171 (6th)
#211 (7th)
#245 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Detroit finished as one of the biggest disappointments in the league last year, ending the year with 8 straight losses.  They were involved in a lot of close games but repeatedly struggled to keep the opposition out of the end zone.  They forked up a lot of points, forcing Matthew Stafford and his offense in to a pass-heavy game plan that was exploited by a lack of top tier pass protection.  They’ve lost two starters from that sub-par unit up front, and have yet to add any new pieces.  Their skill position players are some of the most explosive in the game, and that was before they signed Reggie Bush to a long term deal.  If they can control the line of scrimmage, Detroit will be nearly impossible to stop on offense.  Defensively they lost their top pass rusher in Cliff Avril, replacing him with the versatile but unspectacular Jason Jones.  The secondary struggles seem to be on the horizon yet again, as the only addition to this point is Glover Quin at free safety.  He is not a game changer and won’t be able to hide the gaping holes they have back in their back four.

1 – Left Tackle

Stafford spent too much time on the ground in 2012 and they need to do a better job of protecting him from the outside rush.  2012 first rounder Riley Reiff is an option, but he could play inside.  He is not a guy you base your draft around at all.  They could be in position to grab one of the two big time left tackles early.

2 – Defensive End

The pass defense woes will never improve without a better outside rush to help balance the performance they currently have from the top 1-2 defensive tackle punch on football.  There is a lack of credible talent among both the starters and backups.

3 – Defensive Back

The corners and safeties could use an upgrade in talent.  They did spend 3 picks on corners last year, but none of these guys should alter any draft day plans.  This secondary is average at best.

The Plan:

The offense is good enough to cause any opposing coach to lose sleep for the week leading up to their matchup.  Stafford is on the brink of becoming an elite quarterback and he has the top receiver in the game to throw to with plenty of solid secondary options.  The addition of Bush adds another dynamic that will laterally stretch the field, creating enormous matchup problems across the board.  But as we’ve seen several times, talent at the skill positions will never shine without solid play from the offensive line.  Once the opportunity is there for the Lions to bring in a talent in the trenches, they must pounce.

If the pass rush continues to underwhelm more often than not, the lack of talent in the Lions back seven is going to force the Lions in to lot of shootouts.  That has never and will never be the approach that Super Bowl teams can take.  There is a lot of potential for the Lions to control the point of attack against the run, but the outside rush needs a couple upgrades.  The Lions aren’t far away at all but a lack of talent in both trenches will make their ascent that much more difficult.

3 Round Mock:

#5 – Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
#36 – Johnthan Banks – CB – Mississippi State
#65 – Cornelius Washington – DE – Georgia    Continue reading →

by David Syvertsen

NFC SOUTH: How They Finished

Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

#13 (1st)
#43 (2nd)
#73 (3rd)
#112 (4th)
#126 (4th) f/NE
#147 (5th)
#181 (6th)
#196 (6th) f/DEN via PHI

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Year one of the Greg Schiano era could not have been considered a disappointment, but the Bucs failed to take the leap forward that many were projecting.  They have a good offense, led by a quarterback entering his prime playing behind an underrated offensive line and a nice set of skill players.  They had a dominant run defense all season along with established, starting caliber back seven players.  This appears to be a young team ready for the next level.  However, the Bucs have lost two of their best run stuffers along the front line so far, and have done little to replace them.  While they have able bodies up front, there is work to be done at the point of attack to replace them and find a more capable pass rusher outside.  The signing of free safety Dashon Goldson gives the Bucs a top tier safety duo that can hide some of the instability and lack of production they have been getting from their cornerbacks.    The offense pretty much returns intact from last year plus a couple veteran wide receivers that can boost production from the slot.

1 – Defensive End

With only 27 sacks from the entire team, the Bucs need to find a pass rusher somewhere in this class, preferably outside.  There is little promise on this roster as it currently stands at the position.

2 – Tight End

The one year deal for Dallas Clark in 2012 was not a failure but the Bucs did not get what they were hoping for out of him.  An athletic pass catcher with at least some presence as a blocker could be a big help for this offense.

3 – Cornerback

There are worse CB situations around the league, but the Bucs are in a division loaded with top tier passing offenses.  There is space for an early round corner if the value matches up.

The Plan:

This is a big year for Tampa Bay.  Greg Schiano has come in and changed the culture of this franchise, running a defensive minded approach that is built on controlling the line of scrimmage and using the speed and talent of their back seven to make plays.  The one element missing however, and it is a gaping hole, is the lack of a pass rush presence.  They don’t have anybody outside that demands the double teams.  Matching a quality defensive end with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy could give the Bucs that final push that elevates their defense to playoff-caliber.

Offensively, the Bucs are close to being on par with the rest of their division.  Josh Freeman is a quality quarterback and he is now handing it off to one of the top young running backs in the league.  There is more than enough talent at wide receiver to put plenty of points on the board week in, week out.  Up front, they have a solid unit but there isn’t enough depth should the injuries pile up.  They should wait until they find the right value and bring in a lineman that can play multiple spots.

3 Round Mock:

#13 – Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State
#43 – David Amerson – CB – NC State
#73 – Dallas Thomas – G – Tennessee    Continue reading →

by NFL Gimpy

Several days ago, Steelers WR Emmanuel Sanders tweeted “Hate the business side of the NFL.” Why would he say that? Sanders, as a restricted free agent (RFA), received a 1-year contract offer from the Steelers with a 3^rd round compensation if he signed elsewhere. If Sanders signed an offer with another NFL team, there would be 2 possibilities: the Steelers match that offer and Sanders stays with the Steelers or they don’t match and the Steelers receive a 3^rd round pick from that team. Sanders’ situation became very interesting when the Patriots offered him a 1 year, $2.5M contract, roughly a $1.2M increase from his RFA offer. This set off a week of uncertainty for Sanders which easily explains his disdain for a process that has now ended with the Steelers matching the offer. Sanders will remain in Pittsburgh for 2013.

There were several questions around this whole scenario that made it much different than a normal RFA contract offer. Primarily, why would the Patriots only offer a 1-year deal? That seems to be the most puzzling thing of all on the surface, but if you break it down a little bit it makes sense. There were 4 reasons for a 1-year deal. First, the Patriots could turn around and immediately re-sign Sanders to an extension as long as his cap number for 2013 was larger than the offer ($2.5M). That would be very easy to accomplish and the offer was designed so they could extend him before the season began. Second, they assumed it would be difficult for the Steelers to pass up a 3^rd round pick for a player they will most likely lose next offseason. Third, the Steelers have major salary cap concerns and an additional $1.2M would make things even more difficult. Finally, if the Steelers do match, Sanders is likely to be a free agent next season (the Steelers would have to place the franchise tag on him or sign him to an extension) and the Patriots can take another shot at him.

Given that Sanders did try to leave the Steelers, it shows that he may not be interested in a contract extension. For Sanders, this was a win-win proposition. Either he receives a $1.2M raise in 2013 or he earns a long term contract. If Sanders doesn’t trust the Steelers to pay him what he thinks he deserves, he has to make a move and this was it. Now, the Steelers know if they want to keep Sanders after this season, he needs an extension ASAP because he will happily test the market without one.

I think the Steelers made a mistake here. Unless they’re very confident they can sign Sanders to an extension, they lost a 3^rd round pick for one year of Sanders at WR. Sanders has been an above average player and may be close to a breakout season. If the Steelers don’t win the Super Bowl and they lose Sanders in free agency, it was all for naught. I understand the mentality of teams like the Steelers; they’re always a contender and will plan to compete every season. But do you sacrifice a good draft pick for one year of an above average WR when you’re a long shot to win the Super Bowl? That doesn’t seem prudent to me.   Continue reading →

I’m way late on getting this stuff posted, but for those who don’t know…I had a serious family issue that pushed draft writing to the back-burner for the last 6 or so weeks.  I will start entering this info in the rankings section and posting notes.  Sorry for the delay.

I’m still working on some underclassmen and small school players.  There could be changes between now and the draft, even though that is just 2 weeks away.

TOP 12 per Position    (why 12?  It’s one more than 11)

QB

Geno Smith
Tyler Wilson
Zac Dysert
Ryan Nassib
Matt Barkley
Mike Glennon
Matt Scott
EJ Manuel
Tyler Bray
Landry Jones
Jeff Tuel
Sean Renfree

RB

Eddie Lacy
Gio Bernard
Jonathan Franklin
Montee Ball
Le’Veon Bell
Joseph Randle
Mike Gillislee
Christine Michael
Marcus Lattimore
Andre Ellington
Kenjon Barner
Kerwynn Williams

TE

Tyler Eifert
Zach Ertz
Gavin Escobar
Travis Kelce
Jordan Reed
Vance McDonald
Dion Sims
Michael Williams
Mychal Rivera
Nick Kasa
Ryan Otten
Chris Gragg   Continue reading →

by David Syvertsen

NFC WEST – How They Finished:

1 – San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
2 – Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
3 – St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
4 – Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

ARIZONA CARDINALS

#7 (1st)
#38 (2nd)
#69 (3rd)
#103 (4th)
#140 (5th)
#174 (6th)
#219 (7th) f/OAK

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

The Cardinals overachieved their way to a 4-0 record to start off the 2012 season.  They eventually made their way back down to the bottom of the NFC West, finishing 1-11 in their final 12 games.  They were the worst offensive team in football, scoring just 18 offensive touchdowns all year.  The most important part of the offseason has been the change in leadership with a new General Manager and Head Coach.  Bruce Arians and his aggressive downfield passing attack are now calling the shots.  After allowing 58 sacks in 2012, the Cardinals have surprisingly not yet addressed the offensive line.  They did however trade for veteran quarterback Carson Palmer to pair with Drew Stanton as the team’s new duo of signal callers.  Defensively, they’ve added a lot of veteran role players to supplement an already strong unit.  2013 will be an uphill battle but they should be able to keep games close.  Their deciding factor will revolve around what else they can do to upgrade that offense from here on out.

1 – Pass Blockers

The entire offensive line could be upgraded, although they are not an incapable group as it stands right now.  More competition and depth need to be brought in though to help support Arians’ downfield passing attack and Palmer’s lack of mobility.

2 – Quarterback

Whether or not Palmer has another short run of success left in the tank, the Cardinals don’t have any long term stability at quarterback.  Arians has had a lot of success with first rounders at the position.  If they can find the right value early on, go get it.

3 – Run Defending Safety

Adrian Wilson was replaced by Yeremiah Bell for 2013.  Not a bad move, as the two are pretty close in value but the long term outlook at the position is bleak.  This is an important role within that defense and they need to be better prepared for injuries and/or the future.

The Plan:

The Cardinals may be in position to grab their top graded quarterback at number seven overall.  While that offensive line could certainly use a boost inside and out, the opportunity to bring in whichever signal caller they want will be very tempting considering what is on the current roster.  Bruce Arians had tremendous success with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck in their respective rookie seasons.  He knows how to disguise an inexperienced offensive leader.  If he finds the value in any early round, he should take it and run.

Defensively, the Cardinals are more than good enough to compete week in, week out.  They are strong and deep on all three levels of the defense.  The weakness I see there is a lack of quality youth, however.  They are a veteran group.  They should look to add some quality depth that can take a couple years to get ready for bigger roles.

3 Round Mock:

#7 – Chance Warmack – G – Alabama
#38 – Mike Glennon – QB – NC State
#69 – Jonathan Cyprien – S – Florida International   Continue reading →

by David Syvertsen

New England Patriots (12-4)
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
New York Jets (6-10)
Buffalo Bills (6-10)

BUFFALO BILLS

#8 (1st)
#41 (2nd)
#71 (3rd)
#105 (4th)
#143 (5th)
#177 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Buffalo’s performance in 2012 was not a true testament to the upside of this roster, particularly on defense.  There is a lot of up and coming talent on this team that is ready to compete.  Head Coach Doug Marrone was brought in from Syracuse to help give that final push towards playoff contention.  The personnel work started on offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick being cut and the oft-injured Kevin Kolb brought in to compete with Tarvaris Jackson for a starting position.  The long term answer at quarterback may not be on the roster yet, however.  Defensively, Mike Pettine is now calling the shots with what appears to be a match made in heaven when it comes to his scheme and the Bills’ personnel.  They are a young, hungry, and most importantly, versatile group of defenders that can play in multiple schemes.  They’ve lost their two leading tacklers so far, but the nucleus of a strong unit is already in place.  Better leadership is in place, and we all know that’s where it must begin.

1 – Wide Receiver

Stevie Johnson is the only pass catcher on this roster that opposing defenses need to create a gameplan around.  There are not enough options on this roster for a quarterback to work with.  They are starving for talent, whether its an outside or inside receiver.

2 – Guard

There is a respectable amount of talent at offensive tackle already.  But they were thin inside before they lost Andy Levitre via free agency.  In an offense that depends on the run and with a quarterback that lacks mobility and presence in the pocket, they will need to find a starting caliber guard.

3 – Back Seven Defender

The Bills gave up a ton of points in 2012.  Only 6 teams gave up more.  Opposing offenses were not afraid to throw the ball deep and they were consistently capable of running the ball with ease.  They need a defender in the back seven that can stuff the run and cover tight ends.

The Plan:

Again, this depth chart is an attractive group of young players that could very well compete for a playoff spot in 2013.  The defense underachieved in 2012 but the hiring of Pettine was a great move, arguably the top hiring across the league.  They need to upgrade their ability to put points on the board though if they want to bridge the gap between them and the Patriots.  The value may not be there at wide receiver with their first pick, but they will have their options in round 2.  With that first pick, the Bills must take the best player available they have graded on either side of the ball.  They need more presence and playmaking ability on defense.

They have six total selections at the moment.  Their offensive line is going to be depended on.  Even though they’ve done a fine job of piecing together overlooked, but effective players, there will be opportunity to upgrade the unit as a whole at some point.  A quarterback with one of their first 4-5 picks would be a smart move as well because Marrone needs to find a long term solution if he plans to hold on to his job for more than a couple years.

3 Round Mock:

#8 – Cordarelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee
#41 – Matt Barkley – QB – USC
#71 – DeVonte Holloman – LB – South Carolina

NEW YORK JETS

#9 (1)
#39 (2)
#72 (3)
#106 (4)
#141 (5)
#178 (6)
#215 (7)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

The Jets finished with just 6 wins in year four of the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez era.  They’ve taken major steps backward since appearing in the AFC Championship in both 2009 and 2010.  They were a tough team to watch in 2012 with clear holes on both sides of the ball.  The 2013 offseason has taken an enormous bite out of their starting lineups under new General Manager John Idzik. They were in a tough spot financially and it appears 2013 is going to be a wash.  While the Jets lacked talent last season, they do not have up and coming players that can fill the vacated spots.  This will be year one in an effort to rebuild this franchise with young players.  Darelle Revis remains on the team.  For how long is the question because if a trade could fetch multiple draft picks including a first rounder this year or next, Idzik may have no choice but to pull the trigger.

1 – Offensive Playmakers/Speed

Mark Sanchez has stalled, if not gone in reverse when it comes to his progression as a starting quarterback.  He cannot be blamed by himself, however.  The Jets could replace their entire receiving core tomorrow with street free agents and the overall quality of the group would almost remain the same.  They need players on offense that can create on their own and score touchdowns.  This is a huge disadvantage as it currently stands.

2 – Safety

The Rex Ryan scheme is an amoeba.  Always changing shapes and formations that can keep the offense unsure of what to expect post-snap.  One thing he has always needed though is an instinctive, quick reacting safety or two.  They lost both of their starters this offseason to free agency and there was nothing behind them.

3 – Blitzing Linebackers

Ryan does a nice job of creating complex blitzing schemes to exert pressure on the quarterback.  But that linebacker core is starving for talent.  They lack explosion and pass rush ability.  With ballhawking cornerbacks already on the roster, they need guys up front that can force opposing QBs to get rid of the ball quicker than they want.

The Plan:

2013 is going to be an abysmal season for the Jets barring multiple miracles.  If they actually have an offer on the table for Revis that can bring in multiple picks including a 1st rounder, they have to do it.  The best way to turn a franchise around for the long term is via the draft.  They are in a unique opportunity to give themselves a head start if someone is willing to pay a premium for a veteran CB coming off an ACL injury.

Whether or not the trade happens, the Jets need to obtain more firepower on offense to find out if Sanchez is the guy or not.  Stephen Hill has plenty of deep speed, but he does not have the elusive ability to create plays.  The group of tight ends is a sorry looking trio of guys that do not create any mismatches for opposing defenses.  There are holes all over this team.  Draft the best player available and plug him in to the system.

3 Round Mock:

#9 – Tavon Austin – WR – West Virginia
#39 – Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
#72 – DJ Swearinger – S – South Carolina  Continue reading →

by David Syvertsen

Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Cleveland Browns (6-10)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

#6 (1st)
#68 (3rd)
#104 (4th)
#139 (5th)
#164 (5) f/SF
#173 (6) f/PHI
#237 (7th) f/SF

Offseason 2013: Where They Stand

The coaching carousel ensued in Cleveland after the 2012 season ended.  After spending two years in Carolina running the Panthers offense, Ron Chudzinski has been hired to call the shots for an up and coming roster.  In addition, Michael Lombardi was hired to run the front office as the team’s General Manager.  This is a rather attractive position for them to enter, as Cleveland hosts one of the more talented young rosters in the league that is very well respected among personnel offices around the NFL.   Former Cardinals Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton has been brought in to refine the defense, rounding out a very solid coaching staff.  They’ve already solved the edge rushing issues with the free agent signings of Paul Kruger, Desmond Bryant, and Quentin Groves.  Combining them with a young and powerful defensive line, it is likely the tide is turning within the AFC North.  The Browns are not far away from playoff contention, and they’ve only upgraded their depth chart to this point.

1 – Cornerback

Joe Haden is one of the top young corners in the game.  He has not yet showed the ability to be in that top tier, but he can be an important component to a good defense.  Besides him however, Cleveland lacks a difference maker.  No matter how good your top guy is, cornerback is a position where multiple assets are needed.  They are weak as a whole.

2 – Safety

TJ Ward looks like a keeper at strong safety.  But quarterbacks were not afraid to throw the ball deep on Cleveland in 2012.  The talent at this position can easily be replaced.  This is a spot that can help offset the youth and inexperience at cornerback.

3 – Guard

The Browns have one of the top homegrown offensive lines in football.  There is a hole at guard however.  Playing in a division with loaded defensive lines, that unit up front needs to be high quality at all five spots.

The Plan:

This is a hard year to project how the top five picks will play out.  There is a good shot that the Browns will be on the clock without a player available a position of need.  It is mandatory for them to stay away from reaching for a lower graded player, however.  This is a talented squad on both sides of the ball that is on the brink of breaking through as both the Ravens and Steelers are on the downside of their divisional dominance.  Depth is still needed at pretty much every spot along the defense.  There will be a high-ceiling defender available at number 6 and they must take him.  Ray Horton does a great job of using the versatility of every defender and plugging them in to specific roles within his scheme.

The Browns will not be back on the clock until round 3 because of the supplemental selection used on WR Josh Gordon in 2012.  They are in a nice position because they do not need to fill any starting positions with their draft picks.  They will need to add talent at certain spots to create an intra-competitive environment for their young players.  The quarterback class is pretty deep if you are looking for a backup caliber guy that can push Weeden.  There are plenty of receivers that could push the likes of Gordon, Eric Norwood, and Greg Little as well.

3 Round Mock:

#6 – Star Lotulelei – DT Utah
#68 – B.W. Webb – CB – William & Mary   Continue reading →

by NFL Gimpy

The 2013 QB class is far and away the most interesting class we’ve seen in a long time. By interesting, I don’t mean great, awful, talented, or not talented; I mean there are so many opinions and possibilities that I’d bet a lot of $$ that no analyst comes even close to who goes where and when. That’s not to say a lot of analysts out there aren’t on top of their game, it’s just there are so many questions around these QBs that can’t be solved from an outside perspective.

The first question teams have to ask is whether or not a player’s flaws are fixable. Every player is flawed; there is no such thing as a perfect prospect. There are guys who are close (Andrew Luck for example) where it’s easy to see that their flaws are quickly fixed or worked around. The problem with this class is that there are a lot of players who are highly talented but they have glaring flaws in which you simply cannot determine if they’re fixable or not.

Take Geno Smith, whom most consider to be the #1 QB. Most of Geno’s throws are one-read throws in Dana Hologorsen’s offense. Screens and quick hits were a huge part of their offense and you can’t blame them at all when you have an incredible playmaker like Tavon Austin out there. Put the ball in Austin’s hands and magical things happen. Steadman Bailey is no slouch either. In the NFL, you can’t have plays with one read all game long. Geno is going to have to drop back and move to his third and fourth options all game long. This is something he can do but did not do frequently at WVU.

I don’t believe for a second Geno isn’t a hard worker. I firmly believe all of the sources I’ve seen that say he’s a film room junkie and a great leader. As a Pitt fan, when I say that, it feels like it should be gospel. I’m not exactly a fan of WVU to put it lightly. This makes the main question with Geno whether or not he’ll be able to improve his eyes. Can he drop back, scan the field through multiple targets, and throw the ball with anticipation? In the NFL you have to throw receivers open. Geno has the accuracy and arm strength to do it and the mobility to extend plays. But if he can’t go through his progressions quickly, he’ll never live up to his draft status. Whoever drafts him has to believe he can grow tremendously in that area with good coaching.    Continue reading →