I had a theory recently so I decided to explore it a little. The theory is that high first round players are going to “bust” at lower rates than they have in the past. I believe this is because the learning curve isn’t anywhere near as steep as it has been in the past as college offenses and defenses become more complex like NFL schemes. Even better, NFL teams are taking ideas from college playbooks. Finally, with the new rookie wage scale, a team doesn’t feel obligated to spend a top 10 pick on a premium position like LT, QB, or a pass rusher. Add all of those things together and it could mean it’s easier to spot players who won’t pan out in the NFL because you’re translating skill a lot less.

To do this, I want to compare the 2007 and 2011 NFL Drafts and what they looked like 2 years later. Obviously this is a small sample size, but you’ll see how drastically different these two classes look. I’ll put the players into 4 categories: Stud, Solid, Questionable, and Bust. I’ll use the top 16 players as my sample size. Keep in mind this is how they looked after 2 seasons because it’s the only fair way to compare them.

2007:

Stud: Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis

Solid: LaRon Landry, Marshawn Lynch, Gaines Adams

Questionable: Lawrence Timmons, Amobi Okoye, Levi Brown, Ted Ginn Jr.

Bust: JaMarcus Russell, Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Justin Harrell

The only debate I can see is I may overrate Gaines Adams (RIP) because he was traded during his 3^rd season to the Bears, but he had back to back 6 sack seasons to start his career. If you would like to argue Adam Carriker wasn’t a bust at that point, I suggest you look at what the Redskins traded for him after his 2^nd season: swapping a few late picks. Timmons was still technically a backup his 2^nd season but has obviously turned himself into a solid or better starter.

2011:

Stud: Von Miller, AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Ryan Kerrigan

Solid: Cam Newton, Mike Pouncey, Marcel Dareus, Nick Fairley, Robert Quinn

Questionable: Jake Locker, Tyron Smith, Christian Ponder

Bust: Blaine Gabbert

I don’t see how anyone can argue with the 7 studs; all of them have already made the Pro Bowl. You could argue Cam Newton and Robert Quinn belong up top (Quinn quietly had a 10.5 sack season for a very underrated defense). Blaine Gabbert is the only player I cannot foresee with a chance to start for the team who drafted him in 2014. Jake Locker has a ton of potential, but I doubt he makes it. Tyron Smith could possibly belong in the Solid category right now and Ponder was the QB of a playoff team.

Only 4 players in the 2011 top 16 may not be considered a solid starter or better during their career. There were 8 players after 2 years in 2007. Adam Carricker did remove the bust label and Lawrence Timmons stepped up big time in year 3. That’s still 6 outright busts in the top 16 and if you look at other drafts that’s not a bad number, it’s about average.

* * * * *

For fun, let’s look at the 2012 draft purely from a stud and solid starter angle. 1 season is way too early to declare a player a bust, but it’s safe to say there are some bona fide studs.

Stud: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, and Luke Kuechly

Solid: Morris Claiborne, Mark Barron, Ryan Tannehill, Fletcher Cox, Stephen Gilmore, Bruce Irvin, and Michael Brockers

See what I mean? 12 of 16 players are safely and confidently listed as starters headed into the 2013 season and all of them give their teams a lot of confidence they’ll be consistent performers. I could probably put Quinton Coples under solid as well, but he’s changing positions and required a little motivation from Rex Ryan to show up to voluntary workouts. That makes me a little hesitant.

Quick Hits

-While digging through the info for this column, I realize that the Rams defense needs its own column. They’ve made some very good decisions on that side of the ball as of late and they’re going to need a dominant defense if they want to keep up with the Seahawks and 49ers.

-Tough break for the Chargers and Melvin Ingram. Ingram has an ACL tear and his availability for the 2013 season is in doubt. This led the Chargers to sign Dwight Freeney to fill the pass rushing void.

-If Josh Freeman leaves the Bucs after this season and he goes to a team with good QB coaching I firmly believe he can regain his form from 2 years ago. In 2010 Freeman had 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. Cleveland could be a great spot if they move on from Brandon Weeden.

-The PFT “saga” on UDFA and former Eagles RB Miguel Maysonet was just another low for Mike Florio. Florio was strongly pushing that the Eagles cut Maysonet because of a “disconnect” between new head coach Chip Kelly and GM Howie Roseman. That or they signed free agent Felix Jones and Maysonet was way down on the depth chart and had virtually no chance at making the roster. I won’t link it because the story doesn’t deserve more page views.

-The NHL playoffs have been incredible. Once they’re over, I go nuts with boredom. My wife goes nuts too because she can’t handle me when I have free time. I constantly need to be doing something. Any hobbies beyond writing I should take up in a month or so?

-If any Redskins fans want to buy RGIII wedding gifts, here’s a story with the details.

Want more of Gimpy’s insight on the NFL, NHL, or wedding gifts?  Follow him on Twitter. There’s at least at 37 percent chance you won’t regret doing it.

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Top 3 Needs: OT, Pass Rusher, ILB

#1 – Eric Fisher – OT/Central Michigan

-Best offensive tackle in this class.  Great athlete with size and presence.

-Fits in at RT right away and starts.  Long term security to the vital LT spot.

#63 – Travis Kelce – TE/Cincinnati

-Former wildcat quarterback with athletic, huge but still growing frame

-Gives KC a more complete TE that will block well and does things after the catch

#96 – Knile Davis – RB/Arkansas

-Total package when considering the tool set but underachieved on tape.

-Will fill out the depth chart and be given the opportunity to back up Charles.

#99 – Nico Johnson – LB/Alabama

-Capable two down run defender that needs to be kept inside

-Provides much needed talent and depth next to and/or behind Derrick Johnson

#134 – Sanders Commings – CB/Georgia

-Versatile skill set that can play all over the secondary.  Reliable performer.

-Can be used as a quality backup throughout the entire secondary

#170 – Eric Kush – C/California (PA)

-Quality athlete for the interior that moves fast with power and balance

-Developmental guy that can eventually add depth along the three inside spots

#204 – Braden Wilson – FB/Kansas State

-Huge, physical lead blocker that can makes some things happen with the ball

-Reid likes to use a conventional fullback to pave the way for his ground attack

#207 – Mike Catapano – DE/Princeton

-Strong presence on the outside that impressed in workouts and interviews

-Much needed depth outside that fits in well with a multi-look scheme

What They Did:

Year one of the Andy Reid era has gotten off to a great start.  Their offseason has to be considered a major success to this point, as they’ve pushed all the right buttons when it comes to building their roster to contend for a record over .500 in 2013.  They went offense-heavy in the first two days of the draft that will aid the resurgence of an offense that has the capability of being an efficient unit.  The two additions from the SEC conference on day three aren’t household names,, but Johnson and Commings are the kind of players that are valuable components that can put that defense on an elite level.

Top Value Pick: Sanders Commings – CB/Georgia (#60 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Tyler Bray – QB/Tennessee

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Top 3 Needs: Edge Rusher, Cornerback, Safety

#2 – Luke Joeckel – OT/Texas A&M

-Quality young blocker that is a safe bet to be a long time productive starter

-Will give Gabbert two high level blockers protecting the edge

#33 – Johnathan Cyprien – S/Florida International

-Physical presence over the middle that covers and tackles well

-Gives Bradley an immediate starter at a position with minimal NFL talent

#64 – Dwayne Gratz – CB/Connecticut

-Quick thinker that has an explosive and physical approach

-Rebuilding a secondary that really struggled in 2012 and lost its two best players

#101 – Ace Sanders – WR/South Carolina

-Playmaking talent that can use his lack of size to his advantage.  Used everywhere.

-Adds a missing dimension to an offense that has some overlooked promise

#135 – Denard Robinson – RB/Michigan

-Talented player with the ball in his hands.  Big play waiting to happen.

-Coaches can get creative with him and keep opposing defenses on their toes.

#169 – Josh Evans – S/Florida

-Pass defender that can play deep zone or man receivers up.  Physical and versatile

-A potential starter that fits in perfectly to the Bradley scheme next to Cyprien.

#208 – Jeremy Harris – CB/New Mexico State

-Tall and long corner with easy hips and light feet

-Another scheme based selection that can be coached up and thrown in to the fire.

#210 – Demetrius McCray – CB/Appalachian State

-Big and physical press corner with good ball skills

-Can fill out the depth chart and contend for playing time as a press corner

What They Did:

The secondary was a glaring weakness that needed to be addressed, and address it they did.  They brought in several schematic fits that will compete for starting positions right away. What they did at safety was one of the more impressive upgrades of draft weekend for me.  The league is turning towards a strict format consisting of one physical mauler and one rangy cover man at safety.  Evans and Cyprien will play very well next to each other.  They went with a sure thing to shore up the offensive line early, which is never a bad move with a young unproven quarterback.  And while he matures, they can help take the pressure off with the explosive playmakers added in Swearinger and Robinson.  Very successful draft for year one of the Caldwell/Bradley era.

Top Value Pick: Josh Evans – S/Florida (#53 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Matt Scott – QB/Arizona

Be sure to follow Dave on Twitter.

I’ll spare everyone the rant I gave last year on draft grades, but there are still plenty of topics related to the draft to discuss. There were several noteworthy trends that show what direction the NFL is headed.

The game of football starts and stops with the QB. When the Bills took EJ Manuel as the top QB, it shocked a lot of people. It forced many people to take another look at Manuel to see what they didn’t see. Basically, the Bills made an “upside” pick. I know Tommy was very low on Manuel and only included him in his top 100 because he knew Manuel would be drafted there. Manuel has superb physical gifts…yet with 10 other NFL draftees from this past season on his team he never dominated. You’d assume a 1^st round QB on a team with double digit NFL picks would be a guy whose play screams “NFL QB.” It didn’t.

Manuel has all of the physical tools to be a great QB. He comes off as confident and intelligent in interviews. You see flashes of brilliance on tape but he’s inconsistent at best. The Bills think they can turn him into the next Colin Kaepernick and thankfully Manuel will have a ton of talent around him. The Bills have one of the best 1-2 punches at RB in the NFL, a very good WR in Stevie Johnson, and a solid OL. If Manuel can cut down on the mistakes he made in college (28 INTs in 31 games) and take advantage of his athleticism plus the playmakers around him… it may work. I don’t think it will, but for the sake of long-suffering Bills fans, I hope I’m wrong. Bills vs. Dolphins for the AFC East is must more entertaining than Patriots vs. nobody.

Other than EJ, it’s tough to say any of the QBs had a good weekend. Geno Smith went from a possible top 5 pick to a 2^nd round pick. Matt Barkley could have been a top 10 pick if he came out in 2012. He was the #1 overall pick…in the 4^th round. Zac Dysert was a mid-round sleeper: 7^th round. At best, a few players were drafted in the correct vicinity. Mike Glennon in the 3^rd, Landry Jones in the 4^th, and Tyler Wilson in the 4^th went about when they were reasonably expected to go. I don’t want to call this a bad QB class because you never know who’s going to pan out. Geno Smith could develop a Tom Brady-sized chip on his shoulder and he’s certainly more physically talented than Brady was at this point. Mike Glennon could be the starter for the Bucs in 2014. Matt Barkley may be the QB of the future in Philadelphia if the Eagles don’t rely on their QB to run the ball.

We could easily see 3 or 4 long term starters out of this draft. We could also see none. It’s doubtful we’ll ever witness a 2012 Draft ever again, where we have at least 4 long term starters already inked onto depth charts (Luck, RG3, Tannehill and Wilson) and several others (Weeden, Foles, Osweiler) who could end up there as well. That doesn’t make the 2013 Draft a bad QB draft; it’s just tough to see it differently with the emphasis on the QB position as of late.

What I think NFL teams have realized is that they don’t have to draft premium positions with 1^st round picks. Before the rookie wage scale, a player drafted in the top 10 instantly became one of if not the highest paid player at his position. Eric Berry became the highest paid safety in NFL history due to his rookie contract. CJ Spiller, taken 8^th overall, got $20.8M guaranteed. To put that into comparison, the contract extension LeSean McCoy received before the 2012 season paid him $20.765M guaranteed. Spiller received more guaranteed money as a rookie than a premier player’s extension 2 years later. As you can see, there’s a reason this system was changed. 

Now that a top 10 player isn’t instantly one of the highest paid at his position, teams can spend a high 1^st on any offensive or defensive starter. The result: 2 Guards and 4 OTs in the top 11. As I noted in my Draft Preview column, an OG had not gone in the top 10 in 16 years. For two to go it shows a shifting value system in the NFL for 1^st round picks. Teams will still have their position preferences, but they aren’t locked into taking a QB, LT, pass rusher, or CB in the top 10. In fact, it’s quite possible none of the top 3 OTs taken will start at LT their first season or two. The Chiefs have Branden Albert at LT right now, the Jags have Eugene Monroe, and the Eagles have Jason Peters. Think about that. In the previous 10 NFL drafts, I could not find a single OT taken in the top 5 who was not drafted as an immediate and long term starter at LT. Jason Smith played RT as a rookie, but they wanted him at LT ASAP. This year we may have 3 who aren’t intended to see LT as a rookie.

Miscellaneous Draft thoughts

-When you take a step back and look at the top teams in the NFL and compare those to below average ones, it’s glaringly obvious via the draft why that is. Just compare what the 49ers and Ravens got compared to the Titans and Cardinals. Compare the players and what they’ll have in the 2014 NFL Draft. Could the Titans and Cardinals end up with better players in the long run? Absolutely, but the value presented strongly favors the Ravens and 49ers.

-The last time a QB didn’t go in the top 10? That would be Chad Pennington in 2000. The last time a RB didn’t go in the 1^st round? 1963.

-The Big Ten had as many 1^st rounders as C-USA, MAC, Big East, and non-Notre Dame independents: one. It really lends credence to how awful the Big 10 was this past season outside of Ohio State, who was on a bowl ban.  (Ed note – And the B10 player was Wisconsin C Travis Frederick, picked 31st, and who many thought should have been a 3rd Rd pick)

-I still can’t believe the Jaguars didn’t draft a QB. They have the worst QB situation in the NFL. They have two guys that no one can see as a future NFL starter and two undrafted rookies who are nowhere close to being ready to start. Teams with far better QB situations like the Eagles, Steelers and Giants took QBs in the 4^th round.

-I love that the Packers took Eddie Lacy in the 2^nd and Johnathan Franklin in the 4^th. They completely revamped their RB position without spending a 1^st round pick. What’s odd is that Franklin may get more playing time than Lacy. Franklin may be the back we see in the first half due to his speed and value in a pass heavy offense. I think they drafted Lacy to be a closer. They’ll run Lacy hard in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters to eat the clock as much as possible when they have a lead. With an inability to run late in games, the Packers were forced to throw the ball a lot in the 4^th quarter.

An example: against the Bears late in the season (a game they did win by 8) the Packers could not put the Bears away. In the 4^th quarter, the Packers RBs had 7 rushes for 20 yards and 0 first downs from those runs. The Bears got the ball back with 3:47 and 56 seconds left on the clock. The Bears were an above average run D (8^th in rushing yards allowed, 14^th in yards per carry). If they can get Lacy to simply go 3 yards, 4 yards, 3 yards…they have a 1^st down and eat up 2 more minutes off of the clock. That’s something they were consistently unable to do in 2012. It’s not good to give a playoff contender 2 shots at tying the game with less than 4 minutes to go in the game.

As always, follow me on Twitter. I’m almost at 500 followers. I have an email from Tommy this time last year congratulating me on 100. Sorry for the lack of a column last week, life has been a pain in the ass lately.

I didn’t think the agents did a good job at all. Geno isn’t without fault, but the whole point in hiring an agent is having someone to guide you through the pre-draft process.

Geno skipping the Senior Bowl was the first major blunder. You can only skip the Senior Bowl if you are an elite prospect that is all but assured of being a Top 10 pick. The agents should have done everything possible to get Geno to Mobile. That would have given him a chance to show what he could do in a pro style offense. It would also have let him spend time around NFL coaches.

Many QBs over the years have benefited from this. Donovan McNabb impressed Jon Gruden in 1999. Philip Rivers impressed Marty Schottenheimer in 2004. Even odd QBs like Jake Locker, Tim Tebow, and Colin Kaepernick benefited from the Senior Bowl. EJ Manuel benefited in a big way this year.

You go there to sell yourself. You show that you’re willing to compete and get into an uncomfortable situation. You show how you can adapt to a new offense in a short time. You can show that you’re coachable.

Not going raises questions. It makes the player look either scared to compete or over-confident. Neither is a good option. It means that the player won’t meet teams until the Combine, which isn’t an ideal setting. Players are tired from medical exams and the crazy set up. The Senior Bowl is more relaxed and everything is football down in Mobile.

Geno had some bad meetings with teams, some at the Combine and some in visits. From the sound of things, he simply hadn’t been prepped on what he needed to do and say. A lot of it should be common sense, but things can be a bit complicated when millions of dollars are on the line.

This doesn’t make Geno a bad guy. It doesn’t mean that he won’t go on to have a great NFL career. Things got off to a rocky start because he either hired the wrong people or wouldn’t listen to their advice. Teams want to be comfortable with a QB when they invest a high pick in him. Drafting the wrong QB can lead to a coach and/or GM getting fired.

This isn’t just about money. The point is that the coach and GM must show that they can choose the right player to lead their organization. Talent is part of that, but brains, work ethic, maturity, tact, and mental/emotional toughness are every bit as important. We know Geno has NFL talent. The other stuff seems like more of a mystery at this point. He can answer a lot of those questions by how he handles things in the coming months.

I hope Geno does well. The NFL needs all the talented passers it can find and Geno has the potential to be a good QB and one that’s fun to watch.

* I am happy that NFL teams showed discipline this year in regard to drafting QBs. It hurts both teams and the players when the guys get over-drafted. That puts undue pressure on them. Guys like Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, and Tyler Wilson won’t be looked at as franchise QBs, but they all have the potential to be starters, whether in 2013 or down the road.

* Was there a better pick than the Ravens getting LB Arthur Brown in the 2nd round? That just feels like a great fit.

* I was surprised to see the Texans take Sam Montgomery to play LB. He looked a bit stiff to me. I thought he was more of a DE than a LB. I do trust Wade Phillips. If he thinks Montgomery can be a LB, who am I to question that.

* If RB Chris Thompson can stay healthy, the Skins are going to have one hell of a running attack. Thompson broke his back in 2011 and tore his ACL in 2012. The reason he was still a 5th round pick is that he has explosive speed. And he’s a tough runner for a small RB. The thought of him and RG3 in the backfield together is scary.

* Tim Tebow is on the street and no team seems to be interested. This isn’t about football. This is about the circus that comes with him. There are plenty of coaches who would like a chance to work with Tebow as a role player. No team wants the attention that he brings. Tebow brings a lot of this on himself. He should shun the media for a while if he wants to stay in the NFL. It would also help if he would tell teams that he’s open to playing H-back.

* What are the Lions going to do at OT? LT Jeff Backus retired. RT Gosder Cherilus left in free agency. Riley Reiff is the projected LT for now. There is no one on the roster that looks like a reliable RT. QB Matt Stafford has elite potential, but he needs protection in order to play up to that potential. I hope the Lions have another move planned.

* It is going to be a lot of fun this year to see what Gus Bradley can do in Jacksonville. He’s got an infectious personality and that is a big part of what that organization needs. Gus will bring over some ideas from Seattle. I’m very curious to see what he can replicate and what he can’t.

_

- FINAL -

1. Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
2. Jaguars – Dion Jordan, DE Oregon
3. Raiders – Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
4. Eagles – Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
5. Lions – Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
6. Browns – Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
7. Cardinals – DJ Fluker, OT Alabama
8. Bills – Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse
9. Jets – Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
10. Titans – Chance Wormack, OG Alabama
11. Chargers – Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina
12. Dolphins – Ziggy Ansah, DE BYU
13. Jets – Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida State
14. Panthers – Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida
15. Saints – Barkevious Mingo, OLB LSU
16. Rams – Kenny Vaccaro, FS Texas
17. Steelers – Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
18. Cowboys – Alec Ogletree, SLB Georgia
19. Giants – Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State
20. Bears – Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
21. Bengals – Terron Armstead, OT Arkansas Pine-Bluff
22. Rams – DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
23. Vikings – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
24. Colts – Jesse Williams, NT Alabama
25. Vikings – Arthur Brown, MLB Kansas State
26. Packers – Datone Jones, DE UCLA
27. Texans – Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
28. Broncos – Manti Te’o, MLB Notre Dame
29. Jaguars(f/NE) – Geno Smith, QB West Virginia (TRADE)
30. Falcons – Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
31. 49ers – Matt Elam, S Florida
32. Ravens – Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee

_

NFC EAST – How They Finished in 2012:

Washington Redskins (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

#4 (1st)
#35 (2nd)
#67 (3rd)
#101 (4th)
#136 (5th)
#210 (7th)
#212 (7th) f/CLE
#218 (7th) f/TB
#239 (7th) Comp

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After a 14 year run with a lot of regular season success, the Andy Reid era has come to an end.  Enter Chip Kelly and his unorthodox, but dangerous offense from the college ranks.  Just how similar this offense will resemble what we saw at Oregon remains gray, but Kelly and former Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmer have plenty of playmakers with elite speed and quickness to use.  They added a couple of role players to that offense, James Casey and Arrelious Benn, giving this offense more options play-to-play than most teams around the league.  Defensively, this looks like an entirely new squad from what we saw in 2012.  Bill Davis will run a 3-4 scheme with some hybrid looks thanks to the versatility that already resided on that side of the ball.  They were very aggressive during free agency, bringing in multiple pieces to the puzzle that have experience in starting lineups across the league, but are still on the front nine of their careers.  The entire secondary has been altered, with potentially two new starters at cornerback and two new starters at safety. No defense has gone through more transition than the Eagles this offseason. Who the Eagles will be in 2013 is a huge mystery to me.

1 – Offensive Line

A high paced, as-many-plays-as-possible offensive scheme may not mesh well with multiple aging offensive linemen.  This was a unit that got beat up too often in 2012, its time for an infusion of young, fresh talent.

2 – Defensive End

The 3-4 scheme relies heavily on guys that demand attention up front.  While the personnel transition is under way, they still need depth outside and a guy that can wreck havoc.

3 – Defensive Back

The current starters are questionable talents that may be best suited for specific roles rather than every down duty.  They could add multiple cornerbacks and safeties where the value strikes.

The Plan:

Kelly may look at this offense as a potential juggernaut considering the amount of playmaking ability at his disposal at wide receiver and in the backfield.  In order for him to maximize their potential as a whole, he must look to beef up that offensive line with young, athletic talent.  There will be value available at some point and he must go after it when the time is right.  He has a specific kind of player that fits this system, thus he could stand to wait and not reach, allowing him to grab more defensive help early.

It is very important for the Eagles take their top graded player with their first selection, regardless of position.  Picking #4 overall with 8 more selections afterward is a tremendous opportunity to upgrade the talent of a team.  While they’ve been busy on defense via free agency, there are plenty of spots with room for young talent that can create a sense of competition within the current roster.  Kelly may want to add a quarterback later in the draft as well because of the specific traits his signal callers usually possess.

3 Round Mock:

#4 – Sharif Floyd – DT – Florida
#35 – Jonathan Cyprien – S – Florida International
#67 – David Bakhtiari – OT – Colorado

DALLAS COWBOYS

#18 (1st)
#47 (2nd)
#80 (3rd)
#114 (4th)
#151 (5th)
#185 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Dallas continues to remain in the gray area of mediocrity.  They are not a bottom feeder, but they are not close to Super Bowl contention.  Changes needed to be made after their 8 win season in 2012.  They are throwing away the 3-4 defense, as Rob Ryan no longer runs that side of the ball.  Enter Monte Kiffin from the Tampa Cover 2 frame of mind that will attempt to create a new culture in Dallas.  One that will revolve around top tier pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and a top-notch duo of starting cornerbacks.  This team really struggled against the running game last year and even though they have a new scheme in place, they’ve lost some of their better defensive linemen without any quality replacements during free agency.  Veterans Justin Durant and Will Allen have been scheme-based acquisitions but will not raise the level of this unit.  Offensively, Dallas returns most of the underachieving unit from 2012, minus running back Felix Jones and wide receiver Kevin Ogletree.  Their offensive line was one of the worst in the league but the group returns intact hoping for better results.

1 – Offensive Line

There is enough talent at the skill positions to give the opposing defense a lot of headaches.  But their big boys up front do not control the point of attack which is easily exploited.

2 – Defensive Line

This isn’t a bad starting front four but the age concerns will catch up with them at some point.  The depth, especially outside, needs an upgrade considering the schematic change.

3 – Linebacker

They have lost a few quality backups to free agency and Kiffin needs to have more speed at the position so he can play the most ideal packages within his scheme.  The starting weak side spot could be upgraded, as could the depth along all three spots.

The Plan:

The Cowbouys have been competitive for a long time.  Ever since Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe, this has been a team that appeared to be the team to beat within this divison multiple times.  With that said, this current roster is the worst its been in quite some time.  They have drafted poorly for years in a row, proving that Jerry Jones is clearly in over his head.  They need to almost start this process over, selecting their highest graded players in every round regardless of position.

There is a sense of urgency along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They rarely control the point of attack.  No matter who is out there at the skill positions, if the lines are getting beat up they are toast.  Almost all of their most valuable players have past the 30 year old mark which could mean dark days ahead unless quality depth is added via the draft.

3 Round Mock  

#18 – DJ Fluker – OT – Alabama
#47 – JJ Wilcox – S – Georgia Southern
#80 – Malliciah Goodman – DE – Clemson

New York Giants

#19 (1st)
#49 (2nd)
#81 (3rd)
#116 (4th)
#152 (5th)
#187 (6th)
#225 (7th)
#253 (7th) Comp

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After narrowly missing the playoffs, the Giants entered the 2013 offseason with a small amount of money and a lack of identity.  Their defense was scored on at will during certain stretches of the 2012 season while their inconsistent offense dealt with injuries to some of their key assets.  The salary situation caused the Giants to wave goodbye to some of their more productive, established players.  The replacements they brought in are serviceable but cannot be considered upgrades to say the least.  They gained some financial freedom however and overall they filled more holes than they created when looking at the big picture.  There is enough on this team for a Super Bowl run but they are very old compared to their counterparts around the league.  Their window is on the descent unless they can upgrade the young talent, especially in the trenches.  The core of their recent success is still here from the front office all the way down to the quarterback.

1 – Offensive Line

What used to be a rock-solid unit has turned in to an aging, beat up crew of average blockers that lack identity and presence.  The young talent behind their starters are far from reliable at this point.

2 – Linebacker

This is a very thin unit with three starters that would not start on a lot of teams across the league.  One could make the case that backups AND starters are a need at this spot.

3 – Defensive End

Osi Umenyiora has not been replaced and Justin Tuck has lost his dominant level of play.  This is a group that needs multiple bodies that can perform different roles in a rotation.  This was once a cornerstone of their defense, it is now a short and long term question mark.

The Plan:

When a team has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball but will have multiple downright embarrassing performances throughout the year, you need to check out the level of play in the trenches.  The Giants host a veteran group in there on both offense and defense.  They have a bunch of 30 year old big bodies that have been banged up over the past few seasons.  That could potentially be a major roadblock between them and another Super Bowl run.  Both for the short and long term, they need to find the right value and strengthen their line play.

The skill positions are in good shape, but there is room for another pass catcher on offense and back seven help defensively.  The linebackers have been ignored by the front office during the early rounds of the draft under the Reese regime for the most part, which has hurt them immensely.  They need to add more quality to the position, not necessarily guys that need multiple years to develop.  Again, this team could be in the thick of things next winter but the youth can be upgraded across the board.

3 Round Mock:

#19 – Datone Jones – DE – UCLA
#49 – Kiko Alonso – LB – Oregon
#81 – Alvin Bailey – G – Arkansas

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

#51 (2nd)
#85 (3rd)
#119 (4th)
#154 (5th)
#162 (5th) f/NE
#191 (6th)
#228 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

The focal point in Washington after the division winning 2012 season ended has resolved around the recovery of Robert Griffin III.  His gruesome knee injury during the playoff loss led some to initially believe his 2013 status was up in the air.  From what has been reported, it appears he is on the Adrian Peterson route of fast and effective rehabilitation and will be ready for week 1.  When it comes to the rest of their team, not much has changed this offseason.  They’ve added some depth to the offensive line in signing Jeremy Trueblood, a long time starter from Tampa Bay.  Darryl Tapp comes over from Philadelphia to add another outside pass rush presence while adding a security blanket should Brian Orakpo struggle to come back from injury.  This will be a very similar squad to what ended up winning the NFC East in 2012.

1 – Defensive Backs

The depth chart at both cornerback and safety is a weak group with several backup-caliber players.  Their pass defense was a consistent problem in 2012 and they have yet to upgrade either spot.

2 – Outside Pass Rusher

Without Orakpo in the picture, they really struggled to consistently pressure the quarterback from the outside.  Even if he comes back healthy, there is room for another option that can collapse the edge, whether it’s a linebacker or lineman.

3 – Wide Receiver

They have a nice group of proven veterans, but there is a severe lack of young talent and depth.

The Plan:

Washington does not go on the clock until the 51st overall pick because of the 2012 draft day trade for Griffin III.  They still have 7 picks however and this is a team that has found a lot of value late in drafts over the past few years.  Their defense needs to be upgraded at safety first and foremost to help take pressure off an average group of cornerbacks.  The outside pass rush is another avenue to protect those defensive backs, thus they could find solid value somewhere in those middle rounds.

Offensively this is a unit that dominated the point of attack and ran all over opponents throughout the season.  They have some aging, but still effective, offensive linemen paving the way.  This could be a great opportunity to prepare for the future because this team will go as far as RG III’s legs will take them.  It is vital to keep him safe and allow the rushing attack to continue their dominance.

3 Round Mock:

#51 – DJ Hayden – CB – Houston
#85 – Josh Evans – S – Florida

The NFL Draft starts on Thursday. At this point, we still don’t know who the #1 overall pick will be. There are some really good guesses, but it’s more or less a coin flip at this point. I’ve continually said that this is going to be one of the most interesting drafts we’ve had in a long time. The lack of a top flight QB is the start of the confusion. This will most likely be the first draft since 2008 where a QB isn’t taken 1^st overall (Matt Ryan, 3^rd pick). There’s also a good chance it’s the first draft since 2000 that a QB isn’t taken in the top 3 (Chad Pennington, 18^th pick to the Jets in the Tom Brady draft). Tommy posted positional rankings and David has gone through team by team needs. As always, I like a macro-level perspective on things so I will go over what to look for with each position over the first 2 rounds and what to watch for.

QB: The biggest crapshoot in the draft, more so than usual. Geno Smith is the top QB for most, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the top guy. Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley could steal that spot depending on who drafts a QB first and which QB they covet. The next question is how many QBs go in the first round. It could be as few as 1 and as many as 4. The main thing to watch for is how many go in the 1^st round. A few teams may trade from the 2^nd round back up into the 1^st to get their man. If the 1^st round is slow on QBs, the 2^nd round will be crazy. There could be great value in the 3^rd round at QB as well, depending on a lot of factors. I’ve been a huge fan of Zac Dysert as a 3^rd round pick with great upside.

RB: Without a top guy like Trent Richardson was last year, it’s certainly debatable whether or not a RB will be drafted in the 1^st round. There are several RB needy teams (Steelers, Broncos, Rams, Jets…) but there aren’t that many 1^st round caliber RBs. I’ve seen Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, and Jonathan Franklin listed as the top guy. What’s important to note with RBs is that it’s a position where a rookie can make an immediate impact even if he isn’t a high 1^st round pick. Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris all were worthy of their starting roles and only 1 was a high 1^st round pick. David Wilson of the Giants came on strong late in the season with 247 rushing yards and 3 TDs in his last 4 games.

NFL teams know this and won’t invest a high 1^st in a RB unless he’s special. None of these guys are special. Watch for the first RB go to off the board because it could trigger the following 2 to come off very soon after. With 3 RBs who are likely ranked 6 different ways by NFL Teams, there could be a mini-run on RBs in the late 1^st or early 2^nd round. One other thing to watch for is Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore could easy have been the top RB if it wasn’t for a gruesome knee injury. He’s easily one of my favorite players in the draft and I hope he gets the chance to shine in 2014.

TE: This is one of my favorite positions in the draft this year because it’s full of players who should translate into starters yet there aren’t many teams who have a big need. This means someone is going to steal an impact player in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. There could be 1 or 2 guys in the first round, Tyler Eifert and/or Zach Ertz. Travis Kelce is a great prospect with some character concerns around him that I’ve heard are overblown, but still not something you write off.

WR: WR is an extremely deep position with a lot slightly flawed talents. Tavon Austin is one of the most dynamic playmakers college football has seen the past few years, but his short stature (5’8”) hurts his stock a little. Cordarrelle  Patterson and Justin Hunter have had issues with drops. Keenan Allen has knee issues. There are 6 or 7 guys who will likely go in the top 2 rounds and all but Austin are 6’1 or taller. Look to see how much Austin’s height pushes him down. If he’s not one of the top 2 WRs taken, someone will be thanking the football gods. The NFL is a passing league; you need great pass catchers and there’s a lot of potential in this group.

OT: It is a close to a foregone conclusion that 3 OTs will go in the top 10. Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, and Eric Fisher are all LT prospects and in a pass heavy league they’re highly valued. The order they go in will be based off of individual preference of the teams who draft them. The main thing to look for is next 3 or 4 guys off the board, guys like Menelik Watson, Justin Pugh, and Terron Armstead. Watson and Armstead are great athletes who need a little seasoning. Pugh isn’t as great of an athlete, but is much more of a finished product. When these 3 get drafted will have a big impact on picks 15-40. If they go in the top 30, it means some very talented players will get pushed down further than they should.  

OG/C: Interior OL is a position that NFL teams do not value as worthy of a high first round pick. It has been 16 years since an OG was taken in the top 10 (Chris Naeole, 10^th overall Saints). Keep in mind that’s for players who were drafted to play OG, not guys who underwhelmed and ended up there, like Robert Gallery. That streak may end with Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper. I think there are too many other players who present better value for this to happen, but it’s possible.

DE: The raw Ziggy Ansah and Tank Carradine, still recovering from knee surgery, are the top 2 DEs. Tank just had a very good workout a few days ago and that has really helped his stock for NFL teams. If they’re confident in his knee, he could very easily go before Ansah. Ziggy has only played organized football for 2 years but his physical talent is off the charts. Both could go in the top 10 or fall into the 20s due to their concerns, something several teams in that range would love.

DT: There are three potential Top 10 picks at DT: Star Lotulelei, Shariff Floyd, and Sheldon Richardson. Each player has his own pros and cons and they could go in any order. I expect them all to go in the top 15 because there’s a large drop off after them. Unlike positions like WR, TE, and QB where there are players with similar grades and upsides, you’re losing a lot after these guys.

OLB: Can you say fun? Between Dion Jordan’s incredible range, Barkevious Mingo’s upside, and Jarvis Jones’ production, three teams are going to feel like they upgraded OLB big time on Thursday. Khaseem Greene presents great value in the 2^nd round as a 4-3 OLB. Alec Ogletree was suspended during the season for substance abuse but is a very talented player. Where he goes will depend on how teams view his off field issues.

ILB: Arthur Brown is the top dog at ILB and all non-pass rushing LBs. For all of the Manti Te’o hype during the season, Brown has finally been recognized as his superior even without the catfishing fiasco. Te’o very well may go after LSU product Kevin Minter as well. Like DT, there’s a big drop off after these 3. I’m not sure there’s another ILB in the top 50 so if you miss on them, it may hurt if you really need a MLB like Minnesota and Baltimore do.

S: The amount of value the safety position presents in the 20-60 range is incredible. Kenny Vaccaro, Matt Elam, Jonathan Cyprien, Eric Reid, Phillip Thomas, and DJ Swearinger could all go in the top 2 rounds. In a pass heavy league, safety play is vital. I expect a run in the late 1^st through mid 2^nd on these guys and we could see 4 or 5 rookies starting at safety next season.

CB: Thankfully, the deepest position in the draft in my opinion. I’m sick of QBs throwing for 300 yards like a game of backyard football. I see upwards of 14 or 15 players who could go in the first 3 rounds. Dee Milliner has been the top guy but his shoulder still isn’t at 100% and that’s concerning. An interesting name making its way around the rumor mill is DJ Hayden. Tommy mentioned him on Saturday as a player to watch for and his name is popping up too much to ignore. When you see multiple respected journalists pushing out something positive on a player this close to the draft, you pay attention. The negative stuff is normally garbage. If you’re a CB needy team and you exit day 2 without a CB, you probably messed up.

Random Thoughts/Predictions:

-There will be at least 1 trade in the top 10 and I think it’ll be for an OT. An OT needy team will make a good offer to grab one of the top 3, likely the Chargers or Dolphins if they don’t get Branden Albert.

-So many difficult to spell names in this draft class. If Tommy and I missed one, deal with it.

-I have absolutely no idea what will happen at QB. Whatever happens will be a surprise because I can’t find any way to accurately predict something close to what will happen.

-If Darrelle Revis is 100% healthy, the Buccaneers absolutely stole him. A 1^st and a 2014 3^rd (I’m assuming he’s on the team in 2014) for the top CB in the game? Would you rather have Revis or Dee Milliner? Contract differences aside, it’s not even close. It’s incredible to me how many people have forgotten how good Revis is. The only concerns the Bucs have are his health and whether or not he’ll be satisfied with his new contract. Talent level? Outside of Stevie Johnson, Revis has absolutely owned every WR he has gone against.

-I’ll be tweeting constantly during the draft. One piece of advice though: don’t believe all the negative stuff you hear this week. No player is a fast riser either; I ranted about that a few weeks ago. I know I mentioned DJ Hayden under CBs as a surprise high pick, but this is more about people finding out what NFL teams think about a specific player, not that he’s rising up boards. The only thing a player can do over the next few days is hurt his stock.

-I predict Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley will be the 1^st QB off of the board to Buffalo at 8. I lean Nassib.

-Biggest surprise will be how far Geno Smith falls. I think he was anointed the top QB a little early and will fall until someone trades back into the 1^st for him. EJ Manuel will not go in the 1^st round despite many predictions that he does.

-A top 20ish player will fall well into the 2^nd day due to an injury or off field issue unknown to the public.

-I will be incredibly wrong on many things. So will everyone else.

* Let’s talk about D.J. Hayden, the CB from Houston. I’ve not mentioned him much at all because he was a medical mystery. Hayden took a hit in practice during the year and almost died. It crushed his inferior vena cava.  NFL teams weren’t sure what to make of Hayden. Can you draft a guy who almost died from a routine hit?

Apparently teams are comfortable with him. Mike Mayock, who is well-connected to teams, has put Hayden at the top of his CB rankings. Adam Caplan, also well-connected, has heard that Hayden could go in the 20 to 30 range.

I like Hayden a lot based on game tape. The best compliment I can give to a player is that he plays with a great sense of urgency. Hayden does just that. Way too many CBs are casual. If the ball doesn’t come their way, they relax. Hayden chases plays all over the field. He wants to make every tackle. I love that. Not only does he hustle, he’s fast, tackles well, and takes good pursuit angles. Hayden saved a few TDs for Houston by chasing players down from behind when they appeared to be headed for the endzone.

A lot of times the players who play like that are not very talented. They make up for the lack of talent with great effort. That’s not the case with Hayden. He is extremely talented. Hayden is fast, quick, and athletic. He has very good hands. He is a skilled CB. Hayden is good at jumping routes and playing the ball.

In the last 2 years, Hayden had 6 INTs, 19 PDs, 6 FFs, and 9.5 TFLs. He ran 3 of the picks back for TDs. So you have a CB with skills, speed, athleticism, and who likes to play the run and tackle. This is a really gifted player. I don’t think all 32 teams will have Hayden on their draft boards. It will be interesting to see how much some teams do like him. Is he the first CB taken? Is he a Top 20 player? Does he go in the 1st round?

* FSU star Tank Carradine had his workout today. Early reports say that he ran a 4.75 at 273 pounds. Why is this a big deal? He tore his ACL in late November. He’s making a speedy recovery and might just be able to be a factor in 2013. He could still be a Top 20 pick, but team doctors will be the key guys in determining his value.

* Some raw notes on Richmond S Cooper Taylor. He is 6-4, 229.

“Massive Safety. Looks like a LB. Plays like one at times. Lines up on the LOS on a regular basis. Is withing 10 yards of the LOS on almost every snap. At times he looks like a star. JMU lined up in the Ace formation and ran at Taylor. He drove the TE backward, shed him, and stuffed the RB. A few plays later the TE drove him 5 yards off the ball. Can cover TEs. Didn’t get a feel for him against WRs. Wrap-up tackler, but didn’t drive through his targets forcefully. Showed good range vs the run. Good speed. Some teams could consider him a SAM. Taylor will take on pulling OL and has the size/strength to win some of those battles.”

* Some raw notes on James Madison OG Earl Watford.

“ LG. Active, athletic blocker. Pulls a lot. Does a good job of blocking on the move. Has good feet. Plays under control. Can move laterally or turn his hips and get outside. Shows good awareness. Chooses his targets wisely. Gets into position to block. Doesn’t lunge for targets, even in space. Uses his hands well. Solid pass protector. Lacks the size to be a dominating drive blocker.”

* San Jose State TE Ryan Otten has some fans. I’m skeptical. He is 6-5, 230 and has pretty good speed. He averaged 16 yards per reception and showed the ability to stretch the field at times. My big issue is that Otten is slow out of his stance. He lacks quickness. That worked at SJSU, but will be a major issue in the NFL. He’s worth a late round pick, but will need some work.

* Oregon State WR Markus Wheaton has some strong supporters. Count me among them. He’s got the speed to get behind defenses. He’s also a polished WR that can get open on short and underneath routes. He’ll even block when asked to.

* Safety Don Jones of Arkansas State has been getting a lot of attention from NFL teams. He is a really interesting player. Jones is 5-11, 191, but mostly played near the LOS for ASU. He would line up in the slot at times. He can cover. He also showed the ability to blitz and pressure the QB. Jones got my attention with his run defense. He was able to move through traffic and get to the ball.  Good tackler. Plays bigger than his size. Good speed and has some explosion to his game.

* DE Margus Hunt (6-8, 277) has grown on me. I was highly critical of him early on as a workout warrior. Seeing his pedestrian performance at the Senior Bowl bugged me. I’ve since studied a few games. He was really good against Tulane. He gave QB Ryan Griffin fits in that game. Hunt showed the ability to fly off the edge, but also pressure up the middle as a 3-tech DL. His age (26 this year) still bugs me. Hunt is at his physical peak. I would be willing to spend a 2nd round pick on him.

* Joe Kruger (6-6, 269) is just the opposite. I like him quite a bit as well, but Kruger is just 20 years old. He is scratching the surface of how good he can be. Kruger only started 14 games in his 3 years at Utah. I currently have him slotted as a 5th rounder, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him even go in the 4th. Kruger is tailor-made for the 3-4. He can bulk up to 285 and carry it well. He’s a good athlete and has some pass rush ability. Really good potential, but will need some time.

How They Finished in 2012:

Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Detroit Lions (4-12)

DETROIT LIONS

#5 (1st)
#36 (2nd)
#65 (3rd)
#132 (4th) Comp
#137 (4th)
#171 (6th)
#211 (7th)
#245 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Detroit finished as one of the biggest disappointments in the league last year, ending the year with 8 straight losses.  They were involved in a lot of close games but repeatedly struggled to keep the opposition out of the end zone.  They forked up a lot of points, forcing Matthew Stafford and his offense in to a pass-heavy game plan that was exploited by a lack of top tier pass protection.  They’ve lost two starters from that sub-par unit up front, and have yet to add any new pieces.  Their skill position players are some of the most explosive in the game, and that was before they signed Reggie Bush to a long term deal.  If they can control the line of scrimmage, Detroit will be nearly impossible to stop on offense.  Defensively they lost their top pass rusher in Cliff Avril, replacing him with the versatile but unspectacular Jason Jones.  The secondary struggles seem to be on the horizon yet again, as the only addition to this point is Glover Quin at free safety.  He is not a game changer and won’t be able to hide the gaping holes they have back in their back four.

1 – Left Tackle

Stafford spent too much time on the ground in 2012 and they need to do a better job of protecting him from the outside rush.  2012 first rounder Riley Reiff is an option, but he could play inside.  He is not a guy you base your draft around at all.  They could be in position to grab one of the two big time left tackles early.

2 – Defensive End

The pass defense woes will never improve without a better outside rush to help balance the performance they currently have from the top 1-2 defensive tackle punch on football.  There is a lack of credible talent among both the starters and backups.

3 – Defensive Back

The corners and safeties could use an upgrade in talent.  They did spend 3 picks on corners last year, but none of these guys should alter any draft day plans.  This secondary is average at best.

The Plan:

The offense is good enough to cause any opposing coach to lose sleep for the week leading up to their matchup.  Stafford is on the brink of becoming an elite quarterback and he has the top receiver in the game to throw to with plenty of solid secondary options.  The addition of Bush adds another dynamic that will laterally stretch the field, creating enormous matchup problems across the board.  But as we’ve seen several times, talent at the skill positions will never shine without solid play from the offensive line.  Once the opportunity is there for the Lions to bring in a talent in the trenches, they must pounce.

If the pass rush continues to underwhelm more often than not, the lack of talent in the Lions back seven is going to force the Lions in to lot of shootouts.  That has never and will never be the approach that Super Bowl teams can take.  There is a lot of potential for the Lions to control the point of attack against the run, but the outside rush needs a couple upgrades.  The Lions aren’t far away at all but a lack of talent in both trenches will make their ascent that much more difficult.

3 Round Mock:

#5 – Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
#36 – Johnthan Banks – CB – Mississippi State
#65 – Cornelius Washington – DE – Georgia   

CHICAGO BEARS

#20 (1st)
#50 (2nd)
#117 (4th)
#153 (5th)
#188 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

The Bears have, since the acquisition of Cutler in 2009, been a solid but unspectacular team that always seemed to be a player or two away from Super Bowl contention.  Not on the same level as the elite franchises, but far better than the bottom feeders.  With that in the rear view mirror, I can now say that I think the Bears are set up for a run at the NFC Championship after one of the best offseasons in the entire league.  The biggest moves towards the future were the firing of Head Coach Lovie Smith and the lack of interest in bringing back Linebacker Brian Urlacher.  The offensive minded Marc Trestman has been brought in from Canadian Football League.  It is a great hire that will help bring this offense to another level, one that has been knocking on the door for years.  The talent has been there at every position, but the offensive line has been a roller coaster ever since Cutler put on the Bears uniform.  Enter established veterans Jermon Bushrod and Matt Slauson to control the left side.  Mel Tucker comes in from Chicago to lead a revamped defense full of versatile and productive personnel.  The free agent period has been a great one for Chicago defensively, as the signings of linebackers DJ Williams and James Anderson give them a potentially dominant front seven.  The veterans that departed for other teams will not be missed on either side of the ball, as their replacements are either upgrades or lateral.  Chicago is primed for a huge season as they enter draft weekend.

1 – Defensive Tackle

If the Bears want to maximize the strength of their top tier linebacker group, they will have to add a body inside that can occupy lineman.  This is a very important component to Tucker’s scheme.

2 – Defensive Back

There are a couple age concerns at cornerback and the depth at safety lacks athleticism and coverage ability.

3 – Offensive Line

This will be the best starting group Cutler has played behind since coming to Chicago.  But there is a lack of quality depth inside and out.

The Plan:

With just 5 picks in this entire draft, it was important that the Bears re-tooled their squad via free agency.  The one glaring hole that remains is at defensive tackle, a vital spot for this scheme that will rely heavily on the linebackers.  If there is a good enough value early to bring in a run stuffer, they have to bring him in.  This team can be tough to score on because of the speed they possess on all three levels of the defense but if they are consistently getting beat up against the inside run, it could be a long season.

Cutler has been set up for success in 2013.  He is in a much better system under Trestman and the offensive line will provide the protection he’s missed for a couple years now.  There is room for depth in the trenches and they could bring in another wide receiver if that value fits.  Without any glaring holes on this side of the ball, they can trust their board and let value fall in to their laps.

3 Round Mock:

#20 – Sylvester Williams – DT – North Carolina
#50 – Kevin Minter – LB  – LSU

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

#23 (1st)
#25 (1st) f/SEA
#52 (2nd)
#83 (3rd)
#102 (4th) f/DET
#120 (4th)
#155 (5th)
#189 (6th)
#213 (7th) f/ARI
#224 (7th) f/BUF via SEA
#229 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

It has been a relatively stagnant offseason for the Vikings with minimal turnover, returning most of their 10-win team on both sides of the ball.  They did however trade their top wide receiver, Percy Harvin, to Seattle for a 1st round pick and replacing him with the established Greg Jennings.  The offense lost an explosive dynamic weapon, but gained a savvy well rounded veteran that Christian Ponder could have used in 2012 throughout his up and down season.  Speaking of the quarterback, his new backup is a veteran with plenty of starting experience and may push for playing time should the inconsistent play continue.  Matt Cassel was brought in after being cut by the new regime in Kansas City decided to move forward without him.  Defensively the Vikings lost a starting linebacker and cornerback, leaving both groups very thin.  They’ve drafted well over the past few years, giving the defense as a whole a very well balanced unit that has been tough to score for a few years running.  As long as Adrian Peterson can stay on the field, this team has enough talent to contend for the playoffs.

1 – Middle Linebacker

Jasper Brinkley left for Arizona, leaving the Vikings defense without a starting caliber linebacker inside.

2 – Defensive Tackle

There is a need for a better run defending body inside, especially with what currently stands at middle linebacker.  Kevin Williams is nearing the end of his career as well.

3 – Cornerback

There is some intriguing young talent at the position already, but the lost of Winfield makes this a susceptible unit as it currently stands.  Fresh talent is always sought after in the offseason in a division with Rodgers, Stafford, and Cutler-led passing attacks

The Plan:

The Vikings will only go as far as Peterson will take them.  There should always be steps taken to ensure they get the most out of him such as beefing up the offensive line and improving the passing game by adding wide receiver talent.  While the greatest needs reside on the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota should look to use a few of their 11 selections on their lack of depth on offense.

Replacements at linebacker and cornerback will need to be drafted at some point throughout the weekend.  With 11 picks, Minnesota can be patient and grab the right value instead of reaching for lower graded players.  The don’t have a lot of holes to fill, therefore they could try to trade up a couple times if they feel the right fit is available.

3 Round Mock:

#23 – Manti Te’o – LB – Notre Dame
#25 (f/SEA) – Keenan Allen – WR – California
#52 – Kawann Short – DT – Purdue
#83 – Dwayne Gratz – CB – Connecticut

GREEN BAY PACKERS

#26 (1st)
#55 (2nd)
#88 (3rd)
#122 (4th)
#159 (5th)
#167 (5th) comp
#193 (6th)
#232 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After an injury-riddled season, the Packers were still able to take home the NFC North crown.  They have lost the dominance that most thought was on the way because of a top tier passing attack along with a productive and deep defensive unit.  Injuries hurt their chances more than anything in 2012 and if everyone can remain healthy this year, look for Green Bay to be in the thick of things next January.  It has been a very quiet offseason in Green Bay with minimal additions and subtractions from their 11 win squad in 2012.  Veterans Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Charles Woodson are no longer in the picture.  Their lack of presence in the locker room will hurt more than their level of performance on the field because of what currently resides on the depth chart and old age catching up to them.  This is a team that has drafted exceptionally well over the years and it shows with how deep their roster is on both sides of the ball with quality young talent.  Not much needs to change for this team to sustain a high level of success.

1 – Offensive Line

There isn’t a glaring hole anywhere up front.  But this is a group that could be much better over the next season or two.  The run blocking was abysmal in 2012 and Rodgers spent too much time scrambling away from outside pressure.

2 – Safety

There is enough talent in this secondary to succeed in 2013 but  they could use a better strong safety against the pass.

3 – Wide Receiver

Potentially paying Aaron Rodgers $25 million per year will make it tough to keep highly paid receivers around, thus the position needs to be stocked with up and coming talent ready to contribute over the next year or two.  Need to solve this issue before it arises.

The Plan:

The Packers are in a good spot here, returning most of the team’s top talent on both sides of the ball after a division-winning season.  The Packers underachieved in 2012 and they are primed for a big year in 2013 if they can stay healthy.  This draft is all about the future, a great spot to be in.  They can trust their board early on and simply take the top graded players available.

There are a couple spots for developmental players along the offensive line to ensure they protect their number one asset in Rodgers for the duration of his career.  If they can find a spot to bring in a high upside pass blocker, they should not hesitate to select him.  Same goes for a wide receiver that needs to be coached up.  Defensively they could look to beef up their pass rush and add talent to the middle of the secondary that, again, can take a year or two to develop in to starter-quality.

3 Round Mock:

#26 – Menelik Watson – OT – Florida State
#55 – Quinton Patton – WR – Louisiana Tech
#88 – Sanders Commings – CB/S – Georgia

NFC SOUTH: How They Finished

Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

#13 (1st)
#43 (2nd)
#73 (3rd)
#112 (4th)
#126 (4th) f/NE
#147 (5th)
#181 (6th)
#196 (6th) f/DEN via PHI

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Year one of the Greg Schiano era could not have been considered a disappointment, but the Bucs failed to take the leap forward that many were projecting.  They have a good offense, led by a quarterback entering his prime playing behind an underrated offensive line and a nice set of skill players.  They had a dominant run defense all season along with established, starting caliber back seven players.  This appears to be a young team ready for the next level.  However, the Bucs have lost two of their best run stuffers along the front line so far, and have done little to replace them.  While they have able bodies up front, there is work to be done at the point of attack to replace them and find a more capable pass rusher outside.  The signing of free safety Dashon Goldson gives the Bucs a top tier safety duo that can hide some of the instability and lack of production they have been getting from their cornerbacks.    The offense pretty much returns intact from last year plus a couple veteran wide receivers that can boost production from the slot.

1 – Defensive End

With only 27 sacks from the entire team, the Bucs need to find a pass rusher somewhere in this class, preferably outside.  There is little promise on this roster as it currently stands at the position.

2 – Tight End

The one year deal for Dallas Clark in 2012 was not a failure but the Bucs did not get what they were hoping for out of him.  An athletic pass catcher with at least some presence as a blocker could be a big help for this offense.

3 – Cornerback

There are worse CB situations around the league, but the Bucs are in a division loaded with top tier passing offenses.  There is space for an early round corner if the value matches up.

The Plan:

This is a big year for Tampa Bay.  Greg Schiano has come in and changed the culture of this franchise, running a defensive minded approach that is built on controlling the line of scrimmage and using the speed and talent of their back seven to make plays.  The one element missing however, and it is a gaping hole, is the lack of a pass rush presence.  They don’t have anybody outside that demands the double teams.  Matching a quality defensive end with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy could give the Bucs that final push that elevates their defense to playoff-caliber.

Offensively, the Bucs are close to being on par with the rest of their division.  Josh Freeman is a quality quarterback and he is now handing it off to one of the top young running backs in the league.  There is more than enough talent at wide receiver to put plenty of points on the board week in, week out.  Up front, they have a solid unit but there isn’t enough depth should the injuries pile up.  They should wait until they find the right value and bring in a lineman that can play multiple spots.

3 Round Mock:

#13 – Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State
#43 – David Amerson – CB – NC State
#73 – Dallas Thomas – G – Tennessee   

CAROLINA PANTHERS

#14 (1st)
#44 (2nd)
#108 (4th)
#148 (5th)
#182 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

The Panthers lost 6 of their first 7 games in 2012, creating a hole that was too deep to dig out of despite winning their final 4 contests.  A closer look that abysmal start and you’ll notice that 5 of those early season losses were by a total of 18 points.  They were not, and are not, far from playoff contention.  New General Manager Dave Gettleman was hired from the New York Giants to tweak this roster and add the final few additions it needed in order to realize their potential.  The free agency approach was very calculated, adding role players with a proven track record of NFL production to both sides of the ball.  They avoided the big names, which was a smart move.  The biggest loss personnel wise has been cornerback Chris Gamble.  While he is far from an elite player, the pass defense really struggled in 2012 and he was one of their top players back there. Carolina is on the upward trend as long as they can continue to add young talent to an experienced roster.

1 – Defensive Back

The pass happy NFC South will pick apart sub-par secondaries all year.  There is a lack of talent in the back four, and Gettleman should look to add 1-2 of the best-valued defensive backs when the time is right.

2 – Offensive Line

There is not a pressing need for any particular spot along the line.  They could use some competition inside and at right tackle.  In addition, they have a couple of veterans on the back nine of their career.  With a QB like Newton, you need to be prepared for injuries up front.

3 – Defensive Tackle

The Panthers have one of the more talented trios at linebacker across the league.  They will look pedestrian though if the big boys up front don’t keep them clean.  They need a stronger presence inside.

The Plan

With only 5 picks in this entire draft, the Panthers need to ensure they hit on more than half of their selections.  That is not a common occurrence when looking back at past draft classes around the league.  The biggest mistake the Panthers can make would be to draft based on the need of their current roster.  There is room for depth and competition across the board on both sides of the ball.

There will be a run at defensive tackles.  There will be a run at wide receivers.  There will be a run at cornerbacks.  When that happens, value at other positions will fall.  The smart decision makers on draft weekend will see that and select the best graded player on the board.  If the Panthers can be patient and trust their board, they will get the most out of their 5 picks down the road.

3 Round Mock:

#14 – Desmond Trufant – CB – Washington
#44 – Larry Warford – G – Kentucky

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

#15 (1st)
#75 (3rd)
#109 (4th)
#144 (5th)
#183 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

2012 was a year to forget for this Saints organization.  The Bounty-Gate scandal was an enormous distraction on and off the field, as the punishments handed down from the league were a huge blow to their performance.  The defense was historically awful, and the offense lost a lot of its efficiency without Payton making the in-game adjustments.  Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan has been brought in and the team will transition to a 3-4 scheme.  The personnel is not completely lined up yet, so there may be a few hybrid packages thrown in there as well.  The biggest loss of the offseason has been left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who signed with Chicago.  They have a decent group of experienced players that will compete for that spot, so the hole there is not a gaping one.  Defensively, this veteran-loaded unit added a couple of 3-4 pieces but still lacks the linebackers, both inside and out, that truly fit this scheme.  The Saints will be fighting an uphill battle in 2013, but they can still score against anybody.  They only need a defense that is average, so they aren’t far away personnel-wise.

1 – Pass Rushing Outside Linebacker

Ryan’s scheme demands a lot of outside pass rush coming from the linebackers.  There are a couple pieces with limited potential already in place, but nothing that screams 10+ sacks per season.

2 – Nose Tackle

The Saints were beat up against the running games between the tackles all year.  This scheme needs a big body that occupies blockers and control the two inside gaps.

3 – Defensive Back

There are depth issues at both cornerback and safety.  If they want to compete in this pass happy division, they need multiple options in the defensive backfield.

The Plan:

Nobody would be surprised to see the Saints back in the thick of things, fighting for an NFC Championship in 2013.  Their offense returns one of the game’s top passing attacks, as the presence of Payton on the sidelines will be a huge help.  Whether or not they compete will depend on the new defense.  Their personnel packages will rely heavily on this rookie class because this is an aging unit that doesn’t exactly fit in with the 3-4 scheme.  The players they bring in must show immediate production.  The needs on that side of the ball are so great, they really could bring in their top rated defenders and plug them in to the system.

Offensively they will thrive with what is on the roster.  If by some chance there is a big time offensive line value available in any round, it should be a consideration to bring him in to help prolong Brees’ career.  In an offense that relies on timing and efficiency, the blocking needs to be above average along the entire front.

3 Round Mock:

#15 – Barkevious Mingo – OLB – LSU
#75 – Brandon Williams – DT – Missouri Southern State

ATLANTA FALCONS

#30 (1st)
#60 (2nd)
#92 (3rd)
#127 (4th)
#133 (4th) Comp
#163 (5th)
#198 (6th)
#236 (7th)
#243 (7th) Comp
#244 (7th) Comp
#249 (7th) Comp

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After a 13 win season that ended with a loss in the NFC Championship game, Atlanta was poised to maintain their high scoring offense while adding a little more balance.  They replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, an upward move despite Jackson turning 30 prior to the 2013 season.  Tony Gonzalez returns from retirement, the offensive line loses just one starter, and we now have an offense that is capable of scoring the most points in football.  There are no glaring issues on that side of the ball that need to be addressed.  Defensively, the offseason hasn’t been as friendly.  They’ve lost two of their top three cornerbacks without any replacements yet.  The youth at that position leaves a lot to be desired and unless they strike gold in this draft, it could end up being a roadblock between their team and reaching the next level.  John Abraham has been replaced with Osi Umenyiora, a lateral move that won’t change much when looking at the big picture.  This defense, as it stands right now, will still struggle to reach the quarterback consistently.

1 – Cornerback

Their top corner is 32 years old and has shown signs of slowing down.  Behind him are average-at-best cover men that would not start on most teams around the league.  Not a good combination for the NFC South considering the passing attacks they will be up against.

2 – Defensive End

Umenyiora is at his best when used in a rotation.  In order for the team to get the most out of him, there needs to be more viable options that can rush the edge and apply pressure.

3 – Offensive Line Depth

When the success of a team relies so heavily on a high scoring offense, multiple backup options need to be available should injuries occur.  Atlanta is very thin at tackle.

The Plan:

The NFC South will not be an easy division to stay on top of in 2013.  Atlanta has the tools on offense, both at the skill positions and in the trenches, to be a dominant unit again.  Their defense however could be an easy group to score on because there is a lack of talent in the defensive backfield and a questionable group of pass rushers.  That is a dangerous combination.  The second they can find the right value to strengthen those units, they must strike.

There will be opportunities to beef up their offensive line, which is always a strong consideration when a team relies so much on their quarterback.  The skill positions are host to several current and former Pro-Bowlers, but the youth behind them could use an upgrade in talent as well once the value is there.  Atlanta can approach this draft defensive-minded and not reach for anyone.  But at the same time, they have enough space on offense for new talent.

3 Round Mock:

#30 – Margus Hunt – DE – SMU
#60 – Darius Slay – CB – Mississippi State
#92 – Marcus Lattimore – RB – South Carolina

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