* * *

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Top 3 Needs: OL, QB, S

#7 (1) Johnathan Cooper – G/North Carolina

-Athletic and powerful blocker that can handle size and speed by himself

-Much needed starting caliber lineman that can create running lanes and protect QB

#45 (2) Kevin Minter – LB/LSU

-Downhill run defender that can make an immediate difference inside

-Another solid piece to the puzzle for what could be a top tier defense

#69 (3) Tyrann Mathieu – CB/LSU

-Dynamic playmaker that will make plays no matter where they put him

-Gambling on a top flight defensive back at this point in the draft was a good move

#103 (4) Alex Okafor – DE/Texas

-Strong presence at the point of attack with explosive movements in tight spaces

-Versatile asset to a scheme that likes to exploit matchups by moving guys around

#116 (4) Earl Watford – G/James Madison

-Strong presence that controls his assignment from start to finish consistently

-Could be another starter for this rebuilding offensive line within a couple years

#140 (5) Stepfan Taylor – RB/Stanford

-Quick thumper that is effective in between the tackles.  Can handle a lot of carries

-Immediate short yardage back that gives them a sense of stability in the backfield

#174 (6) Ryan Swope – WR/Texas A&M

-Tough receiver underneath that catches well in traffic and can move with the ball

-Quality depth that will work his tail off and end up contributing eventually

#187 (6) Andre Ellington – RB/Clemson

-Shifty, explosive ball carrier that can make people miss.  Catches well.

-Third down back option in a re-built but crowded backfield

#219 (7) DC Jefferson – TE/Rutgers

-Nicely built athlete that wasn’t utilized correctly in college.  Untapped upside.

-Competition for the 3rd tight end spot with upside of becoming a quality backup

What They Did:

Arizona had one of my favorite drafts from start to finish.  They did the right thing by addressing the interior of their offensive line with two guys that could be starting early in their careers.  They also added several other players that will contribute in 2013.  Minter and Mathieu will blend in nicely to the aggressive, turnover-forcing scheme that will allow these guys to play with a controlled reckless aggression.  If Mathieu can be kept out of trouble by Peterson and the support staff, Arizona acquired one of the top defensive backs in this entire class.  Taylor and Ellington will get a shot to play early as well because the game day carries are there for the taking, as they will host an intra-roster competition throughout the preseason.  I gave both of them high grades, as they are capable of making things happen.  The theme of this draft is immediate contribution for a team that was not as bad as their record says they were.

Top Value Pick – Andre Ellington – RB/Clemson (#39 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Tony Jefferson – S/Oklahoma

The point here isn’t to grade the draft, but rather to try and understand what the team was thinking when they made the picks.

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DETROIT LIONS

Top 3 Needs: LT, DE, DB

#5 – Ezekiel Ansah – DE/BYU – 6’5/271

-Raw but blessed with an athletic skill set that is hard to find.  Strong intangibles.

-An edge presence is needed to help offset the lack of talent in their secondary

#36 – Darius Slay – CB/Mississippi State – 6’0/192

-Big, fast corner that is blossoming at the right time.  Can do everything well.

-Horrid secondary play last year needs a boost on the outside

#65 – Larry Warford – G/Kentucky – 6’3/332

-Mauler that can dominate the point of attack and pass block

-Lions very much needed a presence like this somewhere on that line

#132 – Devin Taylor – DE/South Carolina – 6’7/266

-Has the length and frame that scouts and coaches dream about.  Plays strong.

-Another project on the edge that could elevate a defense that is easy to pass on

#165 – Sam Martin – P/Appalachian State – 6’1/205

-Huge leg with some the best hang time in the class

-Another weapon that can help mask a weak defense by winning field position battle  

#171 – Corey Fuller – WR/Virginia Tech – 6’2/204

-Long-limbed, former track athlete with natural receiving skills

-Potential deep threat in this aggressive, downfield passing attack

#199 – Theo Riddick – RB/Notre Dame – 5’10/201

-RB/WR playmaker that was moved around.  Reliable hands, effective with the ball

-Special Teams contributor and potential 3^rd down back if he can pass block well

#211 – Michael Williams – TE/Notre Dame – 6’6/269

-Blocking tight end that can win most one on one battles at the point of attack

-Another piece up front that can help the playmakers with his blocking.

#245 – Brandon Hepburn – LB/Florida A&M – 6’2/242

-Strong and instinctive LB with the quickness to be an asset in the box

-Special teams help and possibly a backup down the road at both OLB spots

What They Did:

The pass defense has been holding this team back from serious contention in the NFC North.  It has been a problem that rears it’s ugly head time and time again throughout a season.  The best way to fix that problem is up front with big, physical defensive linemen that can get to the quarterback.  They have weapons inside, but the quality and quantity at defensive end were hurting.  They took chances on a couple ends in Ansah and Taylor to help lead that turnover at the position.  Both may be a year or two away, however.  Slay will compete for immediate playing time if the knee checks out and Warford could be a day one starter.  So while this draft is very much about the development of raw talents, they brought in enough immediate contribution-type prospects to upgrade their weaknesses from a year ago.

Top Value Pick: Ezekiel Ansah – DE/BYU (#13 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: LaAdrian Waddle – OT/Texas Tech

The NFC West is now hailed as possibly the best division in the NFL thanks to the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. Both teams appear set to contend for the Super Bowl for the next decade due to young franchise QBs and top notch coaching. But in that division there’s another team that may be ready to take a big step as well: the St. Louis Rams.

The first thing that jumped out to me about the Rams is how young and improved their defense has become in the past 2 years. Their 2011 defense was not exactly good. They allowed 25.4 points per game (26^th in the NFL) and got torched on the ground (152.1 yards per game; 31^st in the NFL). The Rams took some very positive steps in 2012 and improved big time in several areas. The most significant jump would be in points per game, where they dropped to 21.8 PPG, which was good for 14^th in the NFL.

Stats don’t tell the whole story though. The points per game and rushing yard numbers are skewed by the fact that the Rams got their asses kicked a lot in 2011 and allowed offenses to work the clock. The Rams lost by 17 or more points 8 times in 2011. In half of their games, it was a 3 score game at the end, meaning opposing offenses didn’t have a compelling reason to take any risks. This defense would have allowed more points and more passing yards (along with fewer rushing yards) if the games were even competitive in the 4^th quarter. When opposing QBs were throwing, they had a 21:12 TD:INT ratio in 2011.

Thanks to some important moves, things got a lot better the next season. Even though passing yards went up in 2012, most important passing stats saw an improvement. TD:INT ratio was 16:17, which makes them 1 of only 5 teams last year to have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed (Atlanta, Seattle, Arizona, and Chicago; 3 of those were 10 game winners). Yards per attempt went from 7.4 to 7.2. QB rating dropped. If they can take another step forward the Rams could easily be one of the best defenses in the NFL next season.

The question is how do you turn a defense from one of the worst to one of the best in only 2 years? The answer is simple but the execution isn’t: draft properly and don’t rely heavily on free agency. The Rams have done both to perfection.

Within the past 3 drafts, the Rams have selected 5 new starters for the defense (Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, Alec Ogletree, Janoris Jenkins, and whoever wins the FS job). You’ll notice the first 4 players are top 40 selections. Brockers, Quinn, and Jenkins all started last season and appear to be at least solid starters. Quinn and Jenkins have displayed Pro Bowl ability. If Ogletree pans out, you’ve formed the foundation of a top notch defense. The Rams already had Chris Long and James Lauranaitis before these drafts and it’s safe to say they’re among the top 10 or so players at their position.

Along with the successful drafts, the Rams have made very wise moves in free agency. They did pay top dollar for Cortland Finnegan, but Finnegan had played under head coach Jeff Fisher when they were both with the Titans. This immensely minimized the bust potential of the move because Finnegan would be with a familiar coach and scheme. The only other defensive free agent they’ve signed to a respectable contract is Kendall Langford. Langford got $24M over 4 years ($12M guaranteed) which is good money for a young starter at DT, but nothing you can’t walk away from after 2 years if he doesn’t pan out (will only be $2M in dead cap after year 2). Last year’s starter at OLB, Jo-Lonn Dunbar, signed a 2-year, $3M contract.

When you add it all together, the Rams added 8 new defensive starters over the past 3 offseasons; 7 over the past 2 (Robert Quinn is the exception-2011 draft). It has taken impeccable drafting, risk taking (Janoris Jenkins’ off-field issues in college, Finnegan’s on-field antics), and emphasizing value. The offense still leaves a lot to be desired though. Sam Bradford has not developed into a franchise QB, but a lot of that has to do with a poor supporting cast. His best offensive weapons have been an aging Steven Jackson and an oft-injured Danny Amendola, both of whom are now gone.

However, with a young and vastly improved defense, the Rams won’t be a pushover if the offense falters. Even with an inconsistent offense, the Rams still went 2-1-1 against the Seahawks and 49ers in 2012. We’ll see if the big moves they’ve made on the offense pan out. If Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, Brian Quick, and Jake Long get this offense close to the level of the defense, we may have a real 3-way race for the NFC West for a long time.

No pressure, Sam Bradford.

Follow Gimpy on Twitter.

* * *

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Top 3 Needs: CB. DL, QB

#12 – DJ Hayden – CB/Houston

-Talented athlete man that has shown flashes of top tier man coverage ability

-Oakland gets their top CB filling their biggest hole despite trading from #3 to #12

#42 – Menelik Watson – OT/Florida State

-Relatively new to the game but impresses with blend of power and foot quickness

-High upside developmental type that won’t need to be rushed in to action

#66 – Sio Moore – LB – Connecticut

-Productive and versatile player with plenty of athletic ability and pop

-Joins an already strong LB core that will add intra-team competition

#112 – Tyler Wilson – QB/Arkansas

-Good decision maker that plays tough in the pocket and throws with accuracy

-Could end up competing for a starting job at some point in 2013    

#172 – Nick Kasa – TE/Colorado

-Former OT with big time presence as a blocker and high potential as a receiver

-Added presence in the trenches to help the ground game

#181 – Latavius Murray – RB/Central Florida

-Big bodied athletic runner that attacks downhill & can outrun defenders downfield

-Will compete for the third or fourth string back behind injury-prone McFadden

#205 – Stacy McGee – DT/Oklahoma

-Athletic and thick inside rusher that constantly ran in to trouble off the field

-Low risk row of the draft with high potential reward at a position of great need

#209 – Brice Butler – WR/San Diego State

-Big and long receiver with soft hands that can go up and get the ball

-A sure handed possession receiver could go a long way in this offense

#233 – David Bass – DE/Missouri Western

-High energy, athletic player with a big body that has room for growth

-Has the size and strength to rotate in the lineup considering the thin group of DEs

What They Did:

The new brass in Oakland gambled with a trade down from #3 to #12 overall with Miami, which also gave them the 10^th pick of round 2.  Despite moving down ten slots, they still nabbed their top rated defensive player in Hayden.  He was going to be that third pick if a trade agreement wasn’t made.  They kept with the trade-down-theme in rounds 4 and 6, acquiring two extra selections in the sixth.  As I said prior to the draft, the Raiders are fighting against a tough salary cap standing to say the least.  The best way to dig themselves out of their hole will be the draft and a quantity of selections.  Nice job by them to get themselves on the clock 10 times over the course of the weekend.  They’ve added a nice blend of developmental and immediate contribution types on both side of the ball.  Most importantly, the acquisition of Tyler Wilson gives them hope at QB for the future.  He will be a quality starter, possibly sooner rather than later.

Top Value Pick: Tyler Wilson – QB/Arkansas (#97 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Lamar Mady – G/Youngstown State

I had a theory recently so I decided to explore it a little. The theory is that high first round players are going to “bust” at lower rates than they have in the past. I believe this is because the learning curve isn’t anywhere near as steep as it has been in the past as college offenses and defenses become more complex like NFL schemes. Even better, NFL teams are taking ideas from college playbooks. Finally, with the new rookie wage scale, a team doesn’t feel obligated to spend a top 10 pick on a premium position like LT, QB, or a pass rusher. Add all of those things together and it could mean it’s easier to spot players who won’t pan out in the NFL because you’re translating skill a lot less.

To do this, I want to compare the 2007 and 2011 NFL Drafts and what they looked like 2 years later. Obviously this is a small sample size, but you’ll see how drastically different these two classes look. I’ll put the players into 4 categories: Stud, Solid, Questionable, and Bust. I’ll use the top 16 players as my sample size. Keep in mind this is how they looked after 2 seasons because it’s the only fair way to compare them.

2007:

Stud: Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis

Solid: LaRon Landry, Marshawn Lynch, Gaines Adams

Questionable: Lawrence Timmons, Amobi Okoye, Levi Brown, Ted Ginn Jr.

Bust: JaMarcus Russell, Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Justin Harrell

The only debate I can see is I may overrate Gaines Adams (RIP) because he was traded during his 3^rd season to the Bears, but he had back to back 6 sack seasons to start his career. If you would like to argue Adam Carriker wasn’t a bust at that point, I suggest you look at what the Redskins traded for him after his 2^nd season: swapping a few late picks. Timmons was still technically a backup his 2^nd season but has obviously turned himself into a solid or better starter.

2011:

Stud: Von Miller, AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Ryan Kerrigan

Solid: Cam Newton, Mike Pouncey, Marcel Dareus, Nick Fairley, Robert Quinn

Questionable: Jake Locker, Tyron Smith, Christian Ponder

Bust: Blaine Gabbert

I don’t see how anyone can argue with the 7 studs; all of them have already made the Pro Bowl. You could argue Cam Newton and Robert Quinn belong up top (Quinn quietly had a 10.5 sack season for a very underrated defense). Blaine Gabbert is the only player I cannot foresee with a chance to start for the team who drafted him in 2014. Jake Locker has a ton of potential, but I doubt he makes it. Tyron Smith could possibly belong in the Solid category right now and Ponder was the QB of a playoff team.

Only 4 players in the 2011 top 16 may not be considered a solid starter or better during their career. There were 8 players after 2 years in 2007. Adam Carricker did remove the bust label and Lawrence Timmons stepped up big time in year 3. That’s still 6 outright busts in the top 16 and if you look at other drafts that’s not a bad number, it’s about average.

* * * * *

For fun, let’s look at the 2012 draft purely from a stud and solid starter angle. 1 season is way too early to declare a player a bust, but it’s safe to say there are some bona fide studs.

Stud: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, and Luke Kuechly

Solid: Morris Claiborne, Mark Barron, Ryan Tannehill, Fletcher Cox, Stephen Gilmore, Bruce Irvin, and Michael Brockers

See what I mean? 12 of 16 players are safely and confidently listed as starters headed into the 2013 season and all of them give their teams a lot of confidence they’ll be consistent performers. I could probably put Quinton Coples under solid as well, but he’s changing positions and required a little motivation from Rex Ryan to show up to voluntary workouts. That makes me a little hesitant.

Quick Hits

-While digging through the info for this column, I realize that the Rams defense needs its own column. They’ve made some very good decisions on that side of the ball as of late and they’re going to need a dominant defense if they want to keep up with the Seahawks and 49ers.

-Tough break for the Chargers and Melvin Ingram. Ingram has an ACL tear and his availability for the 2013 season is in doubt. This led the Chargers to sign Dwight Freeney to fill the pass rushing void.

-If Josh Freeman leaves the Bucs after this season and he goes to a team with good QB coaching I firmly believe he can regain his form from 2 years ago. In 2010 Freeman had 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. Cleveland could be a great spot if they move on from Brandon Weeden.

-The PFT “saga” on UDFA and former Eagles RB Miguel Maysonet was just another low for Mike Florio. Florio was strongly pushing that the Eagles cut Maysonet because of a “disconnect” between new head coach Chip Kelly and GM Howie Roseman. That or they signed free agent Felix Jones and Maysonet was way down on the depth chart and had virtually no chance at making the roster. I won’t link it because the story doesn’t deserve more page views.

-The NHL playoffs have been incredible. Once they’re over, I go nuts with boredom. My wife goes nuts too because she can’t handle me when I have free time. I constantly need to be doing something. Any hobbies beyond writing I should take up in a month or so?

-If any Redskins fans want to buy RGIII wedding gifts, here’s a story with the details.

Want more of Gimpy’s insight on the NFL, NHL, or wedding gifts?  Follow him on Twitter. There’s at least at 37 percent chance you won’t regret doing it.

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Top 3 Needs: OT, Pass Rusher, ILB

#1 – Eric Fisher – OT/Central Michigan

-Best offensive tackle in this class.  Great athlete with size and presence.

-Fits in at RT right away and starts.  Long term security to the vital LT spot.

#63 – Travis Kelce – TE/Cincinnati

-Former wildcat quarterback with athletic, huge but still growing frame

-Gives KC a more complete TE that will block well and does things after the catch

#96 – Knile Davis – RB/Arkansas

-Total package when considering the tool set but underachieved on tape.

-Will fill out the depth chart and be given the opportunity to back up Charles.

#99 – Nico Johnson – LB/Alabama

-Capable two down run defender that needs to be kept inside

-Provides much needed talent and depth next to and/or behind Derrick Johnson

#134 – Sanders Commings – CB/Georgia

-Versatile skill set that can play all over the secondary.  Reliable performer.

-Can be used as a quality backup throughout the entire secondary

#170 – Eric Kush – C/California (PA)

-Quality athlete for the interior that moves fast with power and balance

-Developmental guy that can eventually add depth along the three inside spots

#204 – Braden Wilson – FB/Kansas State

-Huge, physical lead blocker that can makes some things happen with the ball

-Reid likes to use a conventional fullback to pave the way for his ground attack

#207 – Mike Catapano – DE/Princeton

-Strong presence on the outside that impressed in workouts and interviews

-Much needed depth outside that fits in well with a multi-look scheme

What They Did:

Year one of the Andy Reid era has gotten off to a great start.  Their offseason has to be considered a major success to this point, as they’ve pushed all the right buttons when it comes to building their roster to contend for a record over .500 in 2013.  They went offense-heavy in the first two days of the draft that will aid the resurgence of an offense that has the capability of being an efficient unit.  The two additions from the SEC conference on day three aren’t household names,, but Johnson and Commings are the kind of players that are valuable components that can put that defense on an elite level.

Top Value Pick: Sanders Commings – CB/Georgia (#60 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Tyler Bray – QB/Tennessee

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Top 3 Needs: Edge Rusher, Cornerback, Safety

#2 – Luke Joeckel – OT/Texas A&M

-Quality young blocker that is a safe bet to be a long time productive starter

-Will give Gabbert two high level blockers protecting the edge

#33 – Johnathan Cyprien – S/Florida International

-Physical presence over the middle that covers and tackles well

-Gives Bradley an immediate starter at a position with minimal NFL talent

#64 – Dwayne Gratz – CB/Connecticut

-Quick thinker that has an explosive and physical approach

-Rebuilding a secondary that really struggled in 2012 and lost its two best players

#101 – Ace Sanders – WR/South Carolina

-Playmaking talent that can use his lack of size to his advantage.  Used everywhere.

-Adds a missing dimension to an offense that has some overlooked promise

#135 – Denard Robinson – RB/Michigan

-Talented player with the ball in his hands.  Big play waiting to happen.

-Coaches can get creative with him and keep opposing defenses on their toes.

#169 – Josh Evans – S/Florida

-Pass defender that can play deep zone or man receivers up.  Physical and versatile

-A potential starter that fits in perfectly to the Bradley scheme next to Cyprien.

#208 – Jeremy Harris – CB/New Mexico State

-Tall and long corner with easy hips and light feet

-Another scheme based selection that can be coached up and thrown in to the fire.

#210 – Demetrius McCray – CB/Appalachian State

-Big and physical press corner with good ball skills

-Can fill out the depth chart and contend for playing time as a press corner

What They Did:

The secondary was a glaring weakness that needed to be addressed, and address it they did.  They brought in several schematic fits that will compete for starting positions right away. What they did at safety was one of the more impressive upgrades of draft weekend for me.  The league is turning towards a strict format consisting of one physical mauler and one rangy cover man at safety.  Evans and Cyprien will play very well next to each other.  They went with a sure thing to shore up the offensive line early, which is never a bad move with a young unproven quarterback.  And while he matures, they can help take the pressure off with the explosive playmakers added in Swearinger and Robinson.  Very successful draft for year one of the Caldwell/Bradley era.

Top Value Pick: Josh Evans – S/Florida (#53 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Matt Scott – QB/Arizona

Be sure to follow Dave on Twitter.

I’ll spare everyone the rant I gave last year on draft grades, but there are still plenty of topics related to the draft to discuss. There were several noteworthy trends that show what direction the NFL is headed.

The game of football starts and stops with the QB. When the Bills took EJ Manuel as the top QB, it shocked a lot of people. It forced many people to take another look at Manuel to see what they didn’t see. Basically, the Bills made an “upside” pick. I know Tommy was very low on Manuel and only included him in his top 100 because he knew Manuel would be drafted there. Manuel has superb physical gifts…yet with 10 other NFL draftees from this past season on his team he never dominated. You’d assume a 1^st round QB on a team with double digit NFL picks would be a guy whose play screams “NFL QB.” It didn’t.

Manuel has all of the physical tools to be a great QB. He comes off as confident and intelligent in interviews. You see flashes of brilliance on tape but he’s inconsistent at best. The Bills think they can turn him into the next Colin Kaepernick and thankfully Manuel will have a ton of talent around him. The Bills have one of the best 1-2 punches at RB in the NFL, a very good WR in Stevie Johnson, and a solid OL. If Manuel can cut down on the mistakes he made in college (28 INTs in 31 games) and take advantage of his athleticism plus the playmakers around him… it may work. I don’t think it will, but for the sake of long-suffering Bills fans, I hope I’m wrong. Bills vs. Dolphins for the AFC East is must more entertaining than Patriots vs. nobody.

Other than EJ, it’s tough to say any of the QBs had a good weekend. Geno Smith went from a possible top 5 pick to a 2^nd round pick. Matt Barkley could have been a top 10 pick if he came out in 2012. He was the #1 overall pick…in the 4^th round. Zac Dysert was a mid-round sleeper: 7^th round. At best, a few players were drafted in the correct vicinity. Mike Glennon in the 3^rd, Landry Jones in the 4^th, and Tyler Wilson in the 4^th went about when they were reasonably expected to go. I don’t want to call this a bad QB class because you never know who’s going to pan out. Geno Smith could develop a Tom Brady-sized chip on his shoulder and he’s certainly more physically talented than Brady was at this point. Mike Glennon could be the starter for the Bucs in 2014. Matt Barkley may be the QB of the future in Philadelphia if the Eagles don’t rely on their QB to run the ball.

We could easily see 3 or 4 long term starters out of this draft. We could also see none. It’s doubtful we’ll ever witness a 2012 Draft ever again, where we have at least 4 long term starters already inked onto depth charts (Luck, RG3, Tannehill and Wilson) and several others (Weeden, Foles, Osweiler) who could end up there as well. That doesn’t make the 2013 Draft a bad QB draft; it’s just tough to see it differently with the emphasis on the QB position as of late.

What I think NFL teams have realized is that they don’t have to draft premium positions with 1^st round picks. Before the rookie wage scale, a player drafted in the top 10 instantly became one of if not the highest paid player at his position. Eric Berry became the highest paid safety in NFL history due to his rookie contract. CJ Spiller, taken 8^th overall, got $20.8M guaranteed. To put that into comparison, the contract extension LeSean McCoy received before the 2012 season paid him $20.765M guaranteed. Spiller received more guaranteed money as a rookie than a premier player’s extension 2 years later. As you can see, there’s a reason this system was changed. 

Now that a top 10 player isn’t instantly one of the highest paid at his position, teams can spend a high 1^st on any offensive or defensive starter. The result: 2 Guards and 4 OTs in the top 11. As I noted in my Draft Preview column, an OG had not gone in the top 10 in 16 years. For two to go it shows a shifting value system in the NFL for 1^st round picks. Teams will still have their position preferences, but they aren’t locked into taking a QB, LT, pass rusher, or CB in the top 10. In fact, it’s quite possible none of the top 3 OTs taken will start at LT their first season or two. The Chiefs have Branden Albert at LT right now, the Jags have Eugene Monroe, and the Eagles have Jason Peters. Think about that. In the previous 10 NFL drafts, I could not find a single OT taken in the top 5 who was not drafted as an immediate and long term starter at LT. Jason Smith played RT as a rookie, but they wanted him at LT ASAP. This year we may have 3 who aren’t intended to see LT as a rookie.

Miscellaneous Draft thoughts

-When you take a step back and look at the top teams in the NFL and compare those to below average ones, it’s glaringly obvious via the draft why that is. Just compare what the 49ers and Ravens got compared to the Titans and Cardinals. Compare the players and what they’ll have in the 2014 NFL Draft. Could the Titans and Cardinals end up with better players in the long run? Absolutely, but the value presented strongly favors the Ravens and 49ers.

-The last time a QB didn’t go in the top 10? That would be Chad Pennington in 2000. The last time a RB didn’t go in the 1^st round? 1963.

-The Big Ten had as many 1^st rounders as C-USA, MAC, Big East, and non-Notre Dame independents: one. It really lends credence to how awful the Big 10 was this past season outside of Ohio State, who was on a bowl ban.  (Ed note – And the B10 player was Wisconsin C Travis Frederick, picked 31st, and who many thought should have been a 3rd Rd pick)

-I still can’t believe the Jaguars didn’t draft a QB. They have the worst QB situation in the NFL. They have two guys that no one can see as a future NFL starter and two undrafted rookies who are nowhere close to being ready to start. Teams with far better QB situations like the Eagles, Steelers and Giants took QBs in the 4^th round.

-I love that the Packers took Eddie Lacy in the 2^nd and Johnathan Franklin in the 4^th. They completely revamped their RB position without spending a 1^st round pick. What’s odd is that Franklin may get more playing time than Lacy. Franklin may be the back we see in the first half due to his speed and value in a pass heavy offense. I think they drafted Lacy to be a closer. They’ll run Lacy hard in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters to eat the clock as much as possible when they have a lead. With an inability to run late in games, the Packers were forced to throw the ball a lot in the 4^th quarter.

An example: against the Bears late in the season (a game they did win by 8) the Packers could not put the Bears away. In the 4^th quarter, the Packers RBs had 7 rushes for 20 yards and 0 first downs from those runs. The Bears got the ball back with 3:47 and 56 seconds left on the clock. The Bears were an above average run D (8^th in rushing yards allowed, 14^th in yards per carry). If they can get Lacy to simply go 3 yards, 4 yards, 3 yards…they have a 1^st down and eat up 2 more minutes off of the clock. That’s something they were consistently unable to do in 2012. It’s not good to give a playoff contender 2 shots at tying the game with less than 4 minutes to go in the game.

As always, follow me on Twitter. I’m almost at 500 followers. I have an email from Tommy this time last year congratulating me on 100. Sorry for the lack of a column last week, life has been a pain in the ass lately.

I didn’t think the agents did a good job at all. Geno isn’t without fault, but the whole point in hiring an agent is having someone to guide you through the pre-draft process.

Geno skipping the Senior Bowl was the first major blunder. You can only skip the Senior Bowl if you are an elite prospect that is all but assured of being a Top 10 pick. The agents should have done everything possible to get Geno to Mobile. That would have given him a chance to show what he could do in a pro style offense. It would also have let him spend time around NFL coaches.

Many QBs over the years have benefited from this. Donovan McNabb impressed Jon Gruden in 1999. Philip Rivers impressed Marty Schottenheimer in 2004. Even odd QBs like Jake Locker, Tim Tebow, and Colin Kaepernick benefited from the Senior Bowl. EJ Manuel benefited in a big way this year.

You go there to sell yourself. You show that you’re willing to compete and get into an uncomfortable situation. You show how you can adapt to a new offense in a short time. You can show that you’re coachable.

Not going raises questions. It makes the player look either scared to compete or over-confident. Neither is a good option. It means that the player won’t meet teams until the Combine, which isn’t an ideal setting. Players are tired from medical exams and the crazy set up. The Senior Bowl is more relaxed and everything is football down in Mobile.

Geno had some bad meetings with teams, some at the Combine and some in visits. From the sound of things, he simply hadn’t been prepped on what he needed to do and say. A lot of it should be common sense, but things can be a bit complicated when millions of dollars are on the line.

This doesn’t make Geno a bad guy. It doesn’t mean that he won’t go on to have a great NFL career. Things got off to a rocky start because he either hired the wrong people or wouldn’t listen to their advice. Teams want to be comfortable with a QB when they invest a high pick in him. Drafting the wrong QB can lead to a coach and/or GM getting fired.

This isn’t just about money. The point is that the coach and GM must show that they can choose the right player to lead their organization. Talent is part of that, but brains, work ethic, maturity, tact, and mental/emotional toughness are every bit as important. We know Geno has NFL talent. The other stuff seems like more of a mystery at this point. He can answer a lot of those questions by how he handles things in the coming months.

I hope Geno does well. The NFL needs all the talented passers it can find and Geno has the potential to be a good QB and one that’s fun to watch.

* I am happy that NFL teams showed discipline this year in regard to drafting QBs. It hurts both teams and the players when the guys get over-drafted. That puts undue pressure on them. Guys like Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, and Tyler Wilson won’t be looked at as franchise QBs, but they all have the potential to be starters, whether in 2013 or down the road.

* Was there a better pick than the Ravens getting LB Arthur Brown in the 2nd round? That just feels like a great fit.

* I was surprised to see the Texans take Sam Montgomery to play LB. He looked a bit stiff to me. I thought he was more of a DE than a LB. I do trust Wade Phillips. If he thinks Montgomery can be a LB, who am I to question that.

* If RB Chris Thompson can stay healthy, the Skins are going to have one hell of a running attack. Thompson broke his back in 2011 and tore his ACL in 2012. The reason he was still a 5th round pick is that he has explosive speed. And he’s a tough runner for a small RB. The thought of him and RG3 in the backfield together is scary.

* Tim Tebow is on the street and no team seems to be interested. This isn’t about football. This is about the circus that comes with him. There are plenty of coaches who would like a chance to work with Tebow as a role player. No team wants the attention that he brings. Tebow brings a lot of this on himself. He should shun the media for a while if he wants to stay in the NFL. It would also help if he would tell teams that he’s open to playing H-back.

* What are the Lions going to do at OT? LT Jeff Backus retired. RT Gosder Cherilus left in free agency. Riley Reiff is the projected LT for now. There is no one on the roster that looks like a reliable RT. QB Matt Stafford has elite potential, but he needs protection in order to play up to that potential. I hope the Lions have another move planned.

* It is going to be a lot of fun this year to see what Gus Bradley can do in Jacksonville. He’s got an infectious personality and that is a big part of what that organization needs. Gus will bring over some ideas from Seattle. I’m very curious to see what he can replicate and what he can’t.

_

- FINAL -

1. Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
2. Jaguars – Dion Jordan, DE Oregon
3. Raiders – Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
4. Eagles – Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
5. Lions – Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
6. Browns – Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
7. Cardinals – DJ Fluker, OT Alabama
8. Bills – Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse
9. Jets – Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
10. Titans – Chance Wormack, OG Alabama
11. Chargers – Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina
12. Dolphins – Ziggy Ansah, DE BYU
13. Jets – Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida State
14. Panthers – Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida
15. Saints – Barkevious Mingo, OLB LSU
16. Rams – Kenny Vaccaro, FS Texas
17. Steelers – Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
18. Cowboys – Alec Ogletree, SLB Georgia
19. Giants – Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State
20. Bears – Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
21. Bengals – Terron Armstead, OT Arkansas Pine-Bluff
22. Rams – DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
23. Vikings – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
24. Colts – Jesse Williams, NT Alabama
25. Vikings – Arthur Brown, MLB Kansas State
26. Packers – Datone Jones, DE UCLA
27. Texans – Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
28. Broncos – Manti Te’o, MLB Notre Dame
29. Jaguars(f/NE) – Geno Smith, QB West Virginia (TRADE)
30. Falcons – Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
31. 49ers – Matt Elam, S Florida
32. Ravens – Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee

_

NFC EAST – How They Finished in 2012:

Washington Redskins (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

#4 (1st)
#35 (2nd)
#67 (3rd)
#101 (4th)
#136 (5th)
#210 (7th)
#212 (7th) f/CLE
#218 (7th) f/TB
#239 (7th) Comp

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After a 14 year run with a lot of regular season success, the Andy Reid era has come to an end.  Enter Chip Kelly and his unorthodox, but dangerous offense from the college ranks.  Just how similar this offense will resemble what we saw at Oregon remains gray, but Kelly and former Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmer have plenty of playmakers with elite speed and quickness to use.  They added a couple of role players to that offense, James Casey and Arrelious Benn, giving this offense more options play-to-play than most teams around the league.  Defensively, this looks like an entirely new squad from what we saw in 2012.  Bill Davis will run a 3-4 scheme with some hybrid looks thanks to the versatility that already resided on that side of the ball.  They were very aggressive during free agency, bringing in multiple pieces to the puzzle that have experience in starting lineups across the league, but are still on the front nine of their careers.  The entire secondary has been altered, with potentially two new starters at cornerback and two new starters at safety. No defense has gone through more transition than the Eagles this offseason. Who the Eagles will be in 2013 is a huge mystery to me.

1 – Offensive Line

A high paced, as-many-plays-as-possible offensive scheme may not mesh well with multiple aging offensive linemen.  This was a unit that got beat up too often in 2012, its time for an infusion of young, fresh talent.

2 – Defensive End

The 3-4 scheme relies heavily on guys that demand attention up front.  While the personnel transition is under way, they still need depth outside and a guy that can wreck havoc.

3 – Defensive Back

The current starters are questionable talents that may be best suited for specific roles rather than every down duty.  They could add multiple cornerbacks and safeties where the value strikes.

The Plan:

Kelly may look at this offense as a potential juggernaut considering the amount of playmaking ability at his disposal at wide receiver and in the backfield.  In order for him to maximize their potential as a whole, he must look to beef up that offensive line with young, athletic talent.  There will be value available at some point and he must go after it when the time is right.  He has a specific kind of player that fits this system, thus he could stand to wait and not reach, allowing him to grab more defensive help early.

It is very important for the Eagles take their top graded player with their first selection, regardless of position.  Picking #4 overall with 8 more selections afterward is a tremendous opportunity to upgrade the talent of a team.  While they’ve been busy on defense via free agency, there are plenty of spots with room for young talent that can create a sense of competition within the current roster.  Kelly may want to add a quarterback later in the draft as well because of the specific traits his signal callers usually possess.

3 Round Mock:

#4 – Sharif Floyd – DT – Florida
#35 – Jonathan Cyprien – S – Florida International
#67 – David Bakhtiari – OT – Colorado

DALLAS COWBOYS

#18 (1st)
#47 (2nd)
#80 (3rd)
#114 (4th)
#151 (5th)
#185 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Dallas continues to remain in the gray area of mediocrity.  They are not a bottom feeder, but they are not close to Super Bowl contention.  Changes needed to be made after their 8 win season in 2012.  They are throwing away the 3-4 defense, as Rob Ryan no longer runs that side of the ball.  Enter Monte Kiffin from the Tampa Cover 2 frame of mind that will attempt to create a new culture in Dallas.  One that will revolve around top tier pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and a top-notch duo of starting cornerbacks.  This team really struggled against the running game last year and even though they have a new scheme in place, they’ve lost some of their better defensive linemen without any quality replacements during free agency.  Veterans Justin Durant and Will Allen have been scheme-based acquisitions but will not raise the level of this unit.  Offensively, Dallas returns most of the underachieving unit from 2012, minus running back Felix Jones and wide receiver Kevin Ogletree.  Their offensive line was one of the worst in the league but the group returns intact hoping for better results.

1 – Offensive Line

There is enough talent at the skill positions to give the opposing defense a lot of headaches.  But their big boys up front do not control the point of attack which is easily exploited.

2 – Defensive Line

This isn’t a bad starting front four but the age concerns will catch up with them at some point.  The depth, especially outside, needs an upgrade considering the schematic change.

3 – Linebacker

They have lost a few quality backups to free agency and Kiffin needs to have more speed at the position so he can play the most ideal packages within his scheme.  The starting weak side spot could be upgraded, as could the depth along all three spots.

The Plan:

The Cowbouys have been competitive for a long time.  Ever since Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe, this has been a team that appeared to be the team to beat within this divison multiple times.  With that said, this current roster is the worst its been in quite some time.  They have drafted poorly for years in a row, proving that Jerry Jones is clearly in over his head.  They need to almost start this process over, selecting their highest graded players in every round regardless of position.

There is a sense of urgency along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They rarely control the point of attack.  No matter who is out there at the skill positions, if the lines are getting beat up they are toast.  Almost all of their most valuable players have past the 30 year old mark which could mean dark days ahead unless quality depth is added via the draft.

3 Round Mock  

#18 – DJ Fluker – OT – Alabama
#47 – JJ Wilcox – S – Georgia Southern
#80 – Malliciah Goodman – DE – Clemson

New York Giants

#19 (1st)
#49 (2nd)
#81 (3rd)
#116 (4th)
#152 (5th)
#187 (6th)
#225 (7th)
#253 (7th) Comp

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After narrowly missing the playoffs, the Giants entered the 2013 offseason with a small amount of money and a lack of identity.  Their defense was scored on at will during certain stretches of the 2012 season while their inconsistent offense dealt with injuries to some of their key assets.  The salary situation caused the Giants to wave goodbye to some of their more productive, established players.  The replacements they brought in are serviceable but cannot be considered upgrades to say the least.  They gained some financial freedom however and overall they filled more holes than they created when looking at the big picture.  There is enough on this team for a Super Bowl run but they are very old compared to their counterparts around the league.  Their window is on the descent unless they can upgrade the young talent, especially in the trenches.  The core of their recent success is still here from the front office all the way down to the quarterback.

1 – Offensive Line

What used to be a rock-solid unit has turned in to an aging, beat up crew of average blockers that lack identity and presence.  The young talent behind their starters are far from reliable at this point.

2 – Linebacker

This is a very thin unit with three starters that would not start on a lot of teams across the league.  One could make the case that backups AND starters are a need at this spot.

3 – Defensive End

Osi Umenyiora has not been replaced and Justin Tuck has lost his dominant level of play.  This is a group that needs multiple bodies that can perform different roles in a rotation.  This was once a cornerstone of their defense, it is now a short and long term question mark.

The Plan:

When a team has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball but will have multiple downright embarrassing performances throughout the year, you need to check out the level of play in the trenches.  The Giants host a veteran group in there on both offense and defense.  They have a bunch of 30 year old big bodies that have been banged up over the past few seasons.  That could potentially be a major roadblock between them and another Super Bowl run.  Both for the short and long term, they need to find the right value and strengthen their line play.

The skill positions are in good shape, but there is room for another pass catcher on offense and back seven help defensively.  The linebackers have been ignored by the front office during the early rounds of the draft under the Reese regime for the most part, which has hurt them immensely.  They need to add more quality to the position, not necessarily guys that need multiple years to develop.  Again, this team could be in the thick of things next winter but the youth can be upgraded across the board.

3 Round Mock:

#19 – Datone Jones – DE – UCLA
#49 – Kiko Alonso – LB – Oregon
#81 – Alvin Bailey – G – Arkansas

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

#51 (2nd)
#85 (3rd)
#119 (4th)
#154 (5th)
#162 (5th) f/NE
#191 (6th)
#228 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

The focal point in Washington after the division winning 2012 season ended has resolved around the recovery of Robert Griffin III.  His gruesome knee injury during the playoff loss led some to initially believe his 2013 status was up in the air.  From what has been reported, it appears he is on the Adrian Peterson route of fast and effective rehabilitation and will be ready for week 1.  When it comes to the rest of their team, not much has changed this offseason.  They’ve added some depth to the offensive line in signing Jeremy Trueblood, a long time starter from Tampa Bay.  Darryl Tapp comes over from Philadelphia to add another outside pass rush presence while adding a security blanket should Brian Orakpo struggle to come back from injury.  This will be a very similar squad to what ended up winning the NFC East in 2012.

1 – Defensive Backs

The depth chart at both cornerback and safety is a weak group with several backup-caliber players.  Their pass defense was a consistent problem in 2012 and they have yet to upgrade either spot.

2 – Outside Pass Rusher

Without Orakpo in the picture, they really struggled to consistently pressure the quarterback from the outside.  Even if he comes back healthy, there is room for another option that can collapse the edge, whether it’s a linebacker or lineman.

3 – Wide Receiver

They have a nice group of proven veterans, but there is a severe lack of young talent and depth.

The Plan:

Washington does not go on the clock until the 51st overall pick because of the 2012 draft day trade for Griffin III.  They still have 7 picks however and this is a team that has found a lot of value late in drafts over the past few years.  Their defense needs to be upgraded at safety first and foremost to help take pressure off an average group of cornerbacks.  The outside pass rush is another avenue to protect those defensive backs, thus they could find solid value somewhere in those middle rounds.

Offensively this is a unit that dominated the point of attack and ran all over opponents throughout the season.  They have some aging, but still effective, offensive linemen paving the way.  This could be a great opportunity to prepare for the future because this team will go as far as RG III’s legs will take them.  It is vital to keep him safe and allow the rushing attack to continue their dominance.

3 Round Mock:

#51 – DJ Hayden – CB – Houston
#85 – Josh Evans – S – Florida