by NFL Gimpy    

After going over the Colts and Seahawks, I asked you what you wanted me to go over this week. The consensus seemed to be to go over “a cliff,” I ‘m not sure who most of you are referring to, but when I think of teams about to go over a cliff, I think of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With these two teams, I see tremendous issues for the 2012 season. The Stillers as they call them here in Picksburgh have salary cap, injury, and free agent issues. The Bucs have leadership, coaching, and experience issues. I’ll start off with the Stillers n’at. (If you don’t understand Pittsburghese, just pretend a Boston accent mated with a redneck).

The Steelers were a popular Super Bowl pick before they got Tebowed. The game exposed a lot of issues for the Steelers: an aging defense, issues on the OL, and an offense that can’t do anything if Big Ben is hobbled. The good news is Big Ben will be just fine for the start of the season. The bad news is that everything else is at best the same, if not worse.

I’ll start off with their salary cap situation because that fuels every problem after it. The best number I can find was as of February 6^th, NFL.com reported that the Steelers were $22.5 million over the cap. That’s not good. They have restructured several contracts by converting roster bonuses and salaries into signing bonuses to free up some space, so I’ll be very generous and say they’re still $15 million over the cap. When I say restructure, I want to take a second to explain how this works in a very simple manner that I’m sure cap experts will want to strangle me for.

Let’s say Joe Smith signs a contract with the Steelers. The deal is 4 years, $19 million, with a $4 million signing bonus and a $3 million roster bonus in the 2^nd year. His salary is 12 million divided up evenly over the 4 years (which never happens, being simple here). The main point to realize is that  signing bonus is prorated over the length of the contract for salarly cap purposes, not all at once like a roster bonus. Let’s take a look at his cap numbers over those 4 years:

Year 1: $3 million salary, $1 million salary cap proration (total $4 million)
Year 2: $3 million salary, $1 million salary cap proration, $3 million roster bonus (total $7 million)
Year 3 and 4: $3 million salary, $1 million salary cap proration (total $4 million each year)

Here’s in a nutshell what the Steelers are doing. They see that roster bonus in year 2 and convert it to a signing bonus. This means instead of a $3 million cap hit in Year 2, it’s only a $1 million cap hit and the remaining $2 million is spread into Years 3 and 4. This gives them an immediate savings of $2 million on the cap for Year 2 of the contract. They’re doing this in a much more complicated manner, but that’s how they get immediate cap savings: they push it into the future so they can stay under the cap this season. Feel free to ask questions in the comments section or tweet me and I’ll point you in a better direction for salary cap info.

Ok, class is dismissed, let’s go to the bar! Wait, nevermind. Keep reading about the Steelers!

Like I said, I’m being very generous if I say they’re currently $15 million over the cap, it’s likely a little bit higher. This fuels all of their other problems. When you’re restructuring contracts and figuring out who you can cut to just avoid penalties from the NFL, you’re in trouble. The Steelers aren’t a team with only one or two holes and they need that cap space to at least keep some very important free agents and/or find their immediate replacements in free agency. That lack of cap space is going to kill them.

Let’s start off with injuries. Big Ben will be ok, but will starting RB Rashard Mendenhall be? Mendenhall tore his ACL the last regular season game vs. Cleveland and his availability for 2012 is a question mark. Mendenhall isn’t an All Pro RB, but he’s certainly a good starter and after him there’s not much. Backup RB Isaac Redman is an unknown to most of the NFL for a good reason. He’s 27 years old and only in his 2^nd NFL season. He went to Bowie State. Without google, I would venture to say most people have no idea where Bowie State is. Could Redman be one of those Cinderella stories? Possible, but doubtful. I’m sure Steelers fans won’t like hearing that, but I really don’t see anything beyond “good backup RB” in him. Redman is a restricted free agent and I can’t imagine a scenario where he isn’t a Steeler in 2012. With Mendenhall hurt, the Steelers need someone and they seem like to Redman a lot. After Redman is journeyman Mewelde Moore who’s more of a 3^rd down back and not a guy you’d ever rely on to carry the bulk in any offense at this point in his career. Moore is a free agent, but could re-sign for a very small amount. Given their cap situation, I expect the Steelers to draft a RB in the first 4 rounds to help the running game. They will not be able to afford a good veteran RB unless maybe a guy like Ronnie Brown will take a small contract again in 2012.

Even if he were healthy, Mendenhall still might have an issue in 2012. What’s that issue? Absolute garbage blocking for him. Sure Maurkice Pouncey is a Pro Bowl caliber C. After him the best grade I could give a player is average. In 2012, the projected starters at OT are Willie Colon at RT and Marcus Gilbert at LT. Colon missed almost all of the 2011 season after tearing his triceps in Week 1. Gilbert does fit their scheme, but you’re going to move a 2^nd year player who’s not a very good pass blocker to Big Ben’s blind side? Big Ben was the 4th most sacked QB in the NFL last season (40 sacks over 15 games). I’m the kind of guy who wants an elite pass blocker protecting my 9-figure QB’s backside. That is not Gilbert.

If I grade both Colon and Gilbert as average, I’m probably being generous because Gilbert wouldn’t be a LT for most teams and Colon is worth so much to the Steelers they’re trying to cut his pay… that doesn’t say much about him. You don’t ask your most experienced OT who’s a projected starter to take a pay cut unless you think he’s not worth his current salary, which isn’t that much for a starting OT. The primary backup is Jonathan Scott and past OT stalwart Max Starks is a pending free agent they appear to have no interest in bringing back. Average at best starters+below average depth at OT=scary.

At Guard, the best word to describe their situation is in fact offensive. Most NFL teams would be panicking if their OG situation looked like the Steelers. 2011 starter Ramon Foster is a restricted free agent. The info I’ve found says Doug Legursky is an unrestricted free agent, but he could be restricted. Legursky started the most games for them at LG in 2011. Chris Kemoeatu is probably going to be cut in a cap and talent move, this will save them about $2.3 million in 2012. To be blunt, they shouldn’t keep any of them. Maybe keep Foster for the sake of continuity and the cheap RFA (restricted free agent) price tag, but that’s it. If they’re going to roll with Gilbert and Colon at OT, they need very good OGs to make their running game work and take some pressure off of Big Ben.

Matt Alkire posted his mock draft last night and he has the Steelers targeting Kevin Zeitler of Wisconsin at OG as their first round pick. Matt watches far more tape than I do of college prospects because he actually does do this whole football thing for a living. I’m a huge fan of Wisconsin OL and I think Zeitler could start for them on Day 1 because he’ll instantly be more talented than just about everyone on their OL not named Pouncey. That doesn’t solve OG, but Zeitler and Pouncey could form a formidable interior presence to run behind. At the other spot? Foster would be tolerable for another year if necessary and unfortunately the cap is going to force that. The Steelers don’t like signing free agents and it’s kind of ironic that the team who never signs free agents from other teams has an awful cap situation. I think the Steelers need to sign a veteran to a small contract, take an OG in the first 2 rounds and at least one more later in the draft. Does that fix the OL? Hell no, but if it can be a little better than 2011 maybe Big Ben will survive 2012.

Then there’s the issue of an aging defense. Casey Hampton could be cut in a move that could save them nearly $6 million towards the cap. Hampton has at times been a dominant 3-4 NT, but he’ll be 34 at the beginning of the season and is rapidly declining in skill. Troy Polamalu may have lost a step. James Harrison and Brett Keisel will also be 34 and now that Keisel has shaved his legendary beard off I fear the magic will be gone. James Farrior? 37 years young. The most important figures on the Steelers elite defense the past 5 years could all be gone by the start of the 2013 season. There’s no easy solution here.

The good news is that there’s still talent. Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley are both very good LBs and both could be in the Pro Bowl in the future. Cam Heyward and Ziggy Hood have the ability to anchor the 3-4 DE position for years to come. The Steelers are allegedly very high on 3^rd year player Jason Worilds at OLB. Despite his Wild Card performance, Ike Taylor is a good CB and has a few years left in the tank. The problem is if all the old guys continue their decline in 2012, this defense will take a huge step back and if the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t have a great defense, then who are they?

I see huge steps that need to be made, but how? They need a new NT but those aren’t easy to find. They need a new ILB starter for 2013 because Farrior and Larry Foote won’t cut it. You can never replace Troy Polamalu, you can only hope to put a warm body there that won’t suck. When he’s on his game, Polamalu is a game changer. If he’s a step slow, his wild, reckless style of play will turn from asset to liability when instead of attacking the ball he’s a hair late. When you’re a safety, half a second is the difference between an interception and giving up a touchdown. When you’re a guy like Polamalu who plays the whole field, it could be a disaster if you’re relying on him to make key stops. If I’m the Steelers, I try to trade as many of my liabilities as possible for late round draft picks and just start accumulating bodies and hope talent comes out of it. The Steelers are phenomenal at identifying late round and undrafted talent and boy do they need some on defense very quickly. Expect the Steelers to defense be competitive in 2012, but after that there is likely to be a drop-off and they will not be as dominant.

I have no idea how to get a NT for them. They can spend a 2^nd-4^th round pick on an ILB and a Safety to “replace” Polamalu. This won’t fix their problems, but hopefully they can do a better job filling the future holes on defense than they have on the offensive line.

Last but certainly not least are Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Wallace is a restricted free agent in 2012 and Brown will be in 2013. Wallace and Brown are one of the best starting WR duos in the NFL. They combined for over 2300 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving. Brown is one of the best return men in the NFL and he was the first player in NFL history to have 1,000 receiving yards and 1,000 return yards. Brown was voted team MVP. I don’t have to tell you that Mike Wallace is one of the most dangerous WRs in the game. Wallace is going to command top 10 WR money, which the Steelers may not be able to afford. The way their cap situation is right now, they definitely can’t afford to extend Wallace this season and Brown the next. Here’s where the dilemma goes from bad to worse.

Let’s say the Steelers give Mike Wallace the highest tender possible, a 1^st round tender (the new CBA removed the 3^rd round pick from the highest tender). I don’t have the numbers, but the restricted tag will certainly be less than the $9.4-9.8 million the franchise tag will cost. The Steelers have to be leaning towards only the top restricted free agent tender and not the franchise tag for cap reasons. Now, let’s say you’re the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers. Who would you rather have for a 1^st round pick, Mike Wallace or Michael Floyd? Not to insult Floyd who is a very good NFL prospect, but Wallace has shown he can dominate in the NFL and what better way to protect a so-so QB than a deep threat that can outrun everyone?

This almost forces the Steelers to put the franchise tag on Mike Wallace if they want to keep him for 2012 because he’d be a fool to take a contract before they’re forced to tag him. For only a 1^st round pick and a boatload of cash, a 26 year old elite WR is worth it. 2 first round picks? Probably not, last year’s Falcons draft day trade for Julio Jones notwithstanding. If they put the franchise tag on him, that puts an additional $9+ million on an already huge salary cap. Can they afford that? I’m not sure. Let’s take my $15 million over the cap estimate. They would need to cut at least $30 million off of their current cap number to put the franchise tag on Wallace, sign draft picks and undrafted free agents, and keep some of their low end free agents to fill the roster.

Allow me to make a list of who they would possibly need to cut in order to find $30 million (2012 cap savings in parentheses): Hines Ward ($3.4 million), Chris Kemoeatu ($2.4), Casey Hampton ($5.9), James Farrior (2.8), Larry Foote ($3.0), Aaron Smith ($2.1 million), Will Allen ($1.3), Arnaz Battle ($1 million)…and I’m still not at $30 million. I have no idea how they could possibly afford to pay Mike Wallace a franchise level tender. Yes, of course an extension is possible, but Mike Wallace could hold the Steelers hostage if he wants money they can’t afford to pay him. He could essentially threaten to sign the franchise tag and put them over the cap. If they do somehow find a way to extend Wallace, how would they give Antonio Brown big $$? Wallace may be the better receiver, but you can’t discount what Brown brought to the table in the return game. If you can figure out how to extend Wallace this year and Brown next AND stay under the cap in 2012 without losing half of your roster, Mr. Rooney is offering a week in Paris with Rooney Mara for your troubles.

All in all, the Steelers are about to get a gut punch in the next year or two. Big Ben is an elite QB, but without improved OL play and keeping his offensive playmakers on the same team, the offense will look about as good as it did against Denver. If they don’t find a way to replace their old vets on defense with some young talent, this team could quickly fall behind the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were expected to be a very competitive team in 2011 after a great 2010 campaign that almost got them in the playoffs. Josh Freeman looked like an elite QB in the making. Mike Williams (WR) quit on his team at Syracuse and was a rookie of the year contender. LeGarrette Blount looked like the monster he was expected to be before he screwed up his collegiate career with a sucker punch. They added a ton of defensive talent in the 2010 and 2011 drafts. Then, reality hit them the 2^nd half of 2011. After a good 4-2 start, Tampa dropped 10 straight games. During that stretch, they lost 8 games by 10+ points and 5 of those were by 19 or more. That doesn’t even include a 45 point loss to the 49ers early in the season. During that 10 game losing streak, they let the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars drop 41 points on them.

Needless to say, they were pretty bad. Most fingers are being pointed at now fired head coach Raheem Morris. The Bucs aren’t short on talent, they were very short on execution and discipline. The offense looked lost on numerous occasions. The defense tried their hardest to make every mistake a defense can make. You don’t give up 27 or more points up 10 times in a season without sucking out loud. On offense, every skill player that was great in 2010 regressed in 2011. Blount, despite starting and appearing in more games, had fewer yards and touchdowns. He was banged up late in the season and the Bucs had no one else to run the ball. Over the last 5 weeks of the season, he had 46 carries for 137 yards and 1 touchdown, a 2.97 yards per carry average. I won’t even bother looking at the other guys who ran the ball because I just ate lunch and I don’t want to puke it up. Kregg Lumpkin? I’m feeling queasy just writing his name.

At WR, Mike Williams had the same amount of catches in 2010 and 2011, 65. The problem is his yards per catch dropped by 2.9 and he went from 11 touchdowns to 3. Arrelious Benn can’t seem to stay healthy and I’m pretty sure Kellen Winslow doesn’t technically have knees anymore. In 2010, Josh Freeman had 25 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 95.9 rating. 2011? 16 touchdowns, 22 interceptions, and a 74.6 rating.

So we have a defense that sucks out loud, your skill positions all took a major step back, and there are rumors of a very undisciplined team and a coach who’s an easy scapegoat for it all. Solution? Fire that coach, hold a coaching search where you’re turned down multiple times, then settle for a guy who’s the best coach in the Big Least, aka the tallest midget. Sounds great, doesn’t it? There were stories they had Chip Kelly of Oregon lined up but apparently he backed away at the last minute. Numerous NFL coordinators were linked to the job, but none panned out. That led them to Schiano.

Peter King, a big fan of the Greg Schiano hire they settled on, will not convince me this is a good hire. The argument is that Schiano took a Rutgers program that was one of the worst in college football and made them an above average team. He’s a coach who focuses heavily on discipline, which is what the Bucs need. Why do I not see the logic in that? Once he got Rutgers out the basement and to a respectable level, they leveled off. Rutgers never played in a single BCS Bowl game. They never won the Big East. Ok, they won 5 straight bowl games, but 4 of those 5 teams had a 7-5 or worse record, the lone team better than that was an 8-4 UCF team. Getting Rutgers to a respectable level was impressive. He accomplished that in 2006. Since then? The program has been a 7 to 9 win team who can’t win the worst BCS conference and beat up on subpar bowl opponents. Why would you want a coach whose team hasn’t improved in 5 years?

I don’t see Coach Schiano succeeding in Tampa, which I’m not happy about because I’m a huge Josh Freeman fan. I really think Freeman has the tools to be a great NFL QB but a poor head coach will really limit his upside. The good news is that his offensive coordinator is Mike Sullivan, Eli Manning’s former QB coach. I love that hire. So, what should Coach Schiano do other than step down after 2012 so a better coach can take his place? Unlike the Steelers, he has options.

Tampa Bay has about $60 million in cap space for the 2012 season. They may have sucked last year, but they can do a lot with that cap space. They can buy about a third of a starting lineup with that. Their impending free agents aren’t that bad either. The top unrestricted free agents are Ronde Barber, starting OG Jeremy Zuttah, starting Safety Sean Jones, and starting OLB Geno Hayes, a much better situation than most teams.

Ronde Barber may retire, he’s getting old. The rest of them should be pretty easy to re-sign if they want them. The Bucs have the cap space for Zuttah and he’s not the kind of guy a team is going to break the bank for in free agency. If they keep him fine or they could easily look for an upgrade, either one works. Sean Jones isn’t anything special, but he does seem to have found a home in Tampa the past 2 seasons. Hayes is a talented young LB, but again not a player who’s going to attract the big $$ in free agency, there are a handful of LB prospects teams are going to want more. Hayes does also have some character concerns after being stabbed by an ex girlfriend and being tazed for trespassing in the past; that could affect his value.

What should the Bucs do? Spend, spend, and spend. Their primary focus should be defense. There isn’t a position that couldn’t use an upgrade. Sure, they’ve spent 4 1^st and 2^nd round picks on the DL the past 2 drafts but that doesn’t mean they have 4 starters for the 2012 season. 2010 top 5 pick Gerald McCoy has finished both seasons on the injured reserve. 2011 2^nd round pick DaQuan Bowers didn’t impress and has some huge durability questions. At LB, the starters were OK, but none were much of a playmaker. At CB, Ronde Barber is expected to be gone and Aqib Talib is working hard to make himself the poster child of NFL players who can’t stay out of trouble. At Safety, Tanard Jackson has already been suspended for a year due to violating the substance abuse policy. One more and he’ll be done in the NFL.

You fix this defense by adding experienced talent. The Bucs are in position to overpay people and they need to do it. Whether or not they will is a huge question mark. I’m going to discuss what they should do. I would overpay for a CB like Brent Grimes. Grimes isn’t a flashy guy nor is he a top cover corner, but he’s disciplined, won’t be a distraction, and will bring a solid veteran presence to their defense. If he’s not available, maybe Carlos Rogers could work. I would bring in at least one veteran DL, if not two. If Brodrick Bunkley leaves Denver, he could be a good fit at DT, as could Sammie Lee Hill who’s a bit of an odd man out in Detroit. I’d consider a vet like London Fletcher at LB who goes 110% on every play to show young Mason Foster what it takes to be a great NFL LB. I really think they need to add at least two defensive starters via free agency. They have a ton of young talent, especially on the DL, but not enough experience. 2 or 3 defensive starters could help the young talent turn into a pretty solid group.

The Bucs need some young defensive talent in the draft as well. A defensive playmaker high in the draft is a very good idea. Morris Claiborne is a name frequently associated with them and for good reason. He’s one of the top CB prospects of the past several drafts. The good news is that the CB class is pretty deep this year and even if they do add a starter in free agency, a high draft pick is still very, very necessary. They could also use a Safety in the draft and this is not a very good class for them. I don’t think any defensive line positions should be directly targeted because of how much they’ve spent there. Develop the talent you have.

On offense, I think the #1 goal is to add a playmaker. Mike Williams was that guy in 2010 but after a rough 2011 I wonder if he’ll ever be that guy again. I don’t mean that in a “this guy had a bad year, he’s done” kind of way, I mean it in a “this guy has a history of bad decisions and quitting and handling adversity is not something he does well.” Arrelious Benn is talented but can’t stay healthy. Kellen Winslow is not a playmaker at this point in his career. Blount can look special, but he has character issues that match Mike Williams and struggled to stay healthy this season.

Now the question is where do they get that playmaker? Do they go after a free agent WR like Vincent Jackson or get Justin Blackmon in the draft, a RB like Trent Richardson, or perhaps Jermichael Finley doesn’t get franchise tagged (doubtful but possible)? If finding a playmaker were easy, every NFL team would do it. It’s not, obviously. They simply need to sit back and say “where do we find a playmaker, 1^st round draft pick or free agency?” I would bring a fleet of armored cars to Vincent Jackson’s house, cash on hand. To help Blount, I would draft a RB in the mid rounds and sign a veteran free agent like LaDanian Tomlinson or Ronnie Brown. Both players are in the twilight of their careers, but have succeeded at a very high level in the NFL and can hopefully sucker punch Blount until his head is on straight.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that the Bucs have a great OL, but they’re solid. Davin Joseph is very good OG, Trueblood and Penn are certainly good NFL starters and while Center Jeff Faine is a wily veteran, he could use some competition. Still, the OL appears to be the best group on paper for the Bucs. Sure there were some disappointing performances, but the talent and experience is there. If they do upgrade, it will be an upgrade over Faine or Zuttah. There are some options in free agency at both positions but I can’t go too absurd in my predictions because the Bucs are notoriously cheap, hence why they have $60 million in cap space.

Last but not least, I’d like to see an upgrade at the TE position. Kellen Winslow has been a great “soldier” in Tampa and upgrading here would be a luxury, but I think it’s time to move on. I touched on possibly adding Jermichael Finley, but that’s a pipe dream. There isn’t much in free agency (Fred Davis likely to get the franchise tag as well) but the draft does pose some interesting options. Orson Charles in the 2^nd round might be bad value for the Bucs (not that Charles is bad value there, just bad for the Bucs given their numerous needs) but he’s a great playmaker that could be too tough to pass up if he’s there in the 2^nd. There’s some talent at TE coming from Stanford and Clemson as well for them to check out.

In summation, the Bucs have some young talent, but discipline issues, poor coaching, and poor management have put them in the situation they are right now. The good news is they have the cash and cap room necessary to fix it. They need just about every penny. I think the Schiano hire will come back to bite them but Josh Freeman will develop into a pretty good QB under new offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan. Expect a rough couple of years Bucs fans.

The question really isn’t where Andrew Luck is going to be next fall as much as where Peyton Manning will be at this point. I’m pretty confident the Colts will be going with the talented signal caller here.

2. Washington (f/STL) – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

***TRADE***

The NFC East is ultra-competitive, but the Redskins have been at the bottom of it for some time now and typically; the top is only separated by a few wins. Getting a franchise quarterback in D.C. for the first time in a long time could put the Skins in prime position.

3. Minnesota – Matt Kalil, OT Southern Cal

This would be a brutal decision for me if I was running the draft room in Minnesota. The team is in need of both a left tackle and a cornerback. Following the value, Morris Claiborne is the better player, but I can get corners later in the draft.

Protecting Christian Ponder and clearing the road for Adrian Peterson might be key here. It would be so hard passing on Claiborne though.

4. Cleveland – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

We now basically have the Ohio Eagles and they’d be looking at a talented crop of players at RB, WR and CB. While I think all are logical, Team President Mike Holmgren is known to stay away from wide receivers in the 1st round, especially after the one he drafted high blew up in his face in Koren Robinson.

He has gone for many, many defensive backs, but last time we saw a running back coming out of Tuscaloosa with so much talent Holmgren also grabbed him as well with a very high pick. That paid off with a sure-fire Hall of Famer in Shaun Alexander.

5. Tampa Bay – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

Apparently Ronde Barber is mortal and actually could retire, much to the delight of Donovan McNabb. Aqib Talib has been a walking, talking rectum for the Buccaneers and Claiborne is the best corner prospect in years.

6. St. Louis (f/Wash) – Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State

***TRADE***

St. Louis trades down and still has a left tackle and receiver on the board, but goes for elite talent in Blackmon. It’s just my opinion, but I believe that it is absolutely imperative that the Rams move down, accumulate more picks and still get a great player.

7. Jacksonville – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

The Jaguars have to get a playmaker not named Maurice Jones-Drew on the roster immediately. For those that see this and think its high for Wright, I’ve had a few people in the NFL tell me they have him above Justin Blackmon heading into the Combine.

That said, it wouldn’t matter with Gene Smith anyway. We’ve seen him go after players he covets before and if you want to fill seats and make yourself look smart after trading up for a QB last season, you draft speed and skill. For the game plan on putting butts in seats, see the Carolina Panthers last season.

8. Miami – Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

Someone is going to reach for Ryan Tannehill in this draft. We saw last year that teams will just do it and that wasn’t a new occurrence. I could definitely see the Dolphins making a play on Peyton Manning for the short term success of the franchise and grooming Tannehill behind him who is still a bit raw, but very talented.

Don’t forget, Tannehill’s former head coach at A&M, Mike Sherman, is now the Dolphin’s offensive coordinator.

9. Carolina – Michael Brockers, DT LSU

The more I’ve broken down film on Brockers the more evident what he could become comes into play – a dominant two-gap defensive tackle. The combination of size and athleticism the young man possesses is impressive and at such a young age; his ceiling is so high.

10. Buffalo – Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina

With Buffalo moving to a 4-3 defense they are in desperate need of a pass rusher and lately the name I’m hearing at the top of the pile from sources has been Melvin Ingram on a consistent basis.

Of course, if Demetrius Bell is stolen from them in free agency the Bills would definitely have to take a long, hard look at Riley Reiff here. I’m guessing the boys up north won’t let that happen again after seeing Jason Peters flourish in Philly.

11. Kansas City – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

Kansas City is going to need to fix their offensive line once again and one gaping hole will be at right tackle. Reiff is a natural left tackle and Branden Albert has played well there, but at some point you simply take the best player available and put him on your line.

12. Seattle – Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina

First, there’s that issue of just about every single defensive end in Seattle being a free agent this year. Then, they have a problem where they don’t generate a pass rush to begin with.

Coples is a good fit in two ways. One, they need a left defensive and two, Seattle likes big boys on that side. They roll with the 325-pound Red Bryant as a starter at LDE right now and typically bring in defensive tackles to play the role.

13. Arizona – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

Levi Brown is solid at a tackle spot. Whether or not the Cardinals want to keep him at left tackle for the long term is up to them if they get hold of Martin. That said, this would be a big step in solidifying their offensive line.

14. Dallas – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

Cornerback isn’t particularly a position of strength for the Cowboys, so picking up a player at the position early in the draft and then addressing it again later wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

15. Philadelphia – Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State

Worthy has a great first step, creates havoc in the backfield and can stand up in a two-gap defense and play the run really well. He is a very well-rounded defensive tackle that has been a fireplug for the Spartan Defense.

Of course, we’re passing up on Luke Kuechly here, something that makes me sad. Again, I feel very, very strongly that the Eagles will go out and sign a veteran middle linebacker before the NFL Draft, taking Luke out of the mix.

16. N.Y. Jets – Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

I know I’ve shipped Floyd to the Jets two mocks in a row, but it just makes too much sense. They’ve got absolutely no weapons on the outside and while I’m sure the front office will try to at least fix that with one veteran, Floyd would be a great snag as a rookie.

17. Cincinnati (f/Oak) – David DeCastro, OG Stanford

I’m pretty sure if DeCastro were on the board here the Bengal’s staff would run the pick to the stage. They could lose both starting guards in free agency and even if they bring back Bobbie Williams, he’s been through injuries, drug suspensions and is a rental.

18. San Diego – Mike Adams, OT Ohio State

The Chargers have Marcus McNeill on the left side, but he’s spent extensive time on the injured list two seasons in a row. Last season they brought in Jared Gaither who is a free agent and could be re-signed, but there’s a reason he spent 2011 on three rosters.

On the right side of the line is Jeromey Clary. In other words, this situation could definitely be improved for the future and the value is there with Adams.

19. Chicago – Cordy Glenn, OG Georgia

When I look at the Bears, left tackle, cornerback and receiver are three big needs. Unfortunately, this isn’t a spot where there is much value at any of those positions.

One thing to focus on for Chicago is simply controlling the line of scrimmage and you can do that with adding a player like Cordy Glenn at offensive guard. At that point you have Carimi, Glenn and Williams and obviously still need to look into replacing Webb who was horrible this past year.

20. Tennessee – Peter Konz, C Wisconsin

If you watched Tennessee this season, Chris Johnson was not the only reason Chris Johnson didn’t play well. That sounded odd, but you get the point. The interior line of the Titans was horrid and while Konz might be reaching a few picks – it’s a few picks.

21. Cincinnati – Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama

Jenkins has a ton of off the field issues that he’s going to have to explain in interviews at the NFL Combine. That said, he also has Top 10 talent in the minds of many NFL personnel people. Cincinnati has been known to take some risks in the past and this late in the first round he is worth it.

22. Cleveland (f/Atl) – Mohamed Sanu, WR Rutgers

Adding both Trent Richardson and Mohamed Sanu in the 1st Round of the draft would bring some instant firepower to an inept offense. Also, Colt McCoy would most likely have to be refrained from slipping the Walrus the tongue.

Earlier I spoke about Mike Holmgren not going after wide receivers early in the draft, however this late in the 1st Round and with such a void at the position I think he could pull the trigger. Sanu, Little and Richardson could be a nice trio to build on.

23. Detroit – Luke Kuechly, MLB Boston College

Middle linebacker is a tricky position in the draft. Guys can easily slip from 10, to 20, to 30 based upon need. That said, if Detroit wants to continue running the Wide 9 Kuechly is a great fit and they’d be much better off shedding Stephen Tulloch and drafting the future in Kuechly.

24. Pittsburgh – Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin

Chris Kemoeatu will most likely be cut in the offseason and the Steelers have three restricted free agents and one unrestricted free agent at offensive guard. In other words, it’s a tad unstable in Steel City on the interior line.

25. Denver – Dwayne Allen, TE Clemson

Let’s get some more weapons into the mix for Tim Tebow. The Broncos will need to make decisions at free agent at the position and frankly, taking perhaps the best TE off the board as a safety net for their young QB would be nice.

26. Houston – Dontari Poe, NT Memphis

This is a pick for the future, not for the present. At this point the Texans have two capable players under contract in Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell, however Poe has the potential to be special under the right coach.

27. New England (f/NO) – Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB Illinois

I didn’t envision Mercilus falling this far, but it’s the way the board broke. If New England could get their hands on a prospect with his outstanding speed and quickness I think they’d be thrilled. He’s also quite disciplined and plays the run well; ideal for OLB in a 3-4.

28. Green Bay – Fletcher Cox, DE Mississippi State

I nearly went with an outside linebacker here, but what separates Cox from the other five-techs for me is that Green Bay wants a pass rush out of their defensive ends; even in the 3-4 scheme. If you flip on film of Cox, you’ll see how quickly he gets off the ball and how disruptive he can be.

29. Baltimore – Courtney Upshaw, OLB Alabama

Jarret Johnson has been a very important player for the Ravens and I’m just not sure what they’ll do with former 2nd Round pick Sergio Kindle. Some people may question Upshaw falling this far.

First of all, he weighed in at 273 pounds at the Senior Bowl and he’s a thick 6’1.5” or 6’2”, so he’s not playing a traditional LB spot. He’s either a DE with his hand on the ground or the hybrid OLB. I’m just not sure where I value him right now and think he could fall as I’ve never seen much speed from him. Feel free to disagree vehemently.

30. San Francisco – Rueben Randle, WR LSU

Randle is a guy that I personally value in the 2nd Round, but he could certainly sneak into the 1st with a good Combine, if he even needs that. The Niners need offense and will likely address it again later in the draft for a return man.

31. New England – Devon Still, DT/DE Penn State

When you look over the Patriots roster and move them back into a 3-4 which will be the goal, you have to dissect who will go where. Your five-techs are Love, Pryor, Deaderick, Ellis and Warren. The last two are free agents. That is not a compelling group of players.

Still would give Bill Belichick even further freedom to move back to his defense and out of the 4-3, getting a pass rusher and a true 3-4 DE in the 1st Round. With their collection of draft picks, they could always move up for a strong safety like Mark Barron or address it in free agency. They can address other needs throughout the draft. It’s all about getting back to having a top-flight defense.

32. N.Y. Giants – Orson Charles, TE Georgia

The Giants have won two Super Bowls relying heavily on slot receivers coming out of the blue and becoming the teams’ leading receiver. That extra offensive firepower, coupled with the team’s strong defense has turned Wild Card teams into Lombardi Trophy Winners.

They have not had a premier tight end since Jeremy Shockey and adding a consistent weapon to the offense for Eli Manning over the middle could go a long way. Years ago the thought of Steve Smith “disappearing” sounded crazy to Giants fans. Will Victor Cruz keep up his pace next year?

Mercilus (6’4, 265) is a natural pass rusher. Good burst off the ball. Able to stay low and bend around the OT. Good pad level for a tall guy. He uses a variety of moves. Has the speed to just fly upfield. Will mix in spin moves and other times rush to the inside. Sometimes he was lined up as a DT and OGs had a very hard time blocking him. They aren’t used to guys with Mercilus’ kind of quickness and agility. Mercilus uses his hands well when fighting to get by blockers. Good effort.

He should definitely be a 1st round pick. 4-3 teams will love him as a DE. 3-4 teams will project him to OLB. Not sure if he’s made to play in space. He is a good athlete so you would think he could adjust to that role. One knock against Mercilus is that he’s a one-year wonder. Only had 24 total tackles and 2 sacks coming into 2011.

* Let’s shift gears to another Junior DE, Chandler Jones from Syracuse. Jones is a player that I think is a bit under the radar right now. Has a great frame at 6’5, 265. Very good athlete. You’ll see him use speed off the edge. He’s good with a swim move and rip move. The thing that really fascinates me with Jones is his strength/power. He’s able to bull rush and drive OTs backward. He can move blockers out of the way when he cleanly gets his hands on them.

Generally played RDE for Syracuse. Occasionally would line up at DT on some passing downs. Good motor. Had 30 or more solo tackles in each of his 3 years. Quinton Coples, another big DE, only broke 30 once. Jones missed 5 games in 2011 with a lower body injury. He finished the season with just 4.5 sacks. He only had 10 for his career and that is a concern. He did finish his career with 27 TFLs, 5 FFs, and even an INT so it isn’t like he didn’t make any plays. I’m not sure why Jones wasn’t more productive as a pass rusher. It certainly isn’t a lack of athleticism or natural ability. It will be interesting to see how he does at the Combine. Could a great showing push Jones into the 1st round? Solid 2nd round pick who does have excellent potential.

* Another Syracuse defender of interest is S Phillip Thomas. He’s also a Junior. Entered the draft when he was suspended by the school for a year. There are rumors that failed drug tests were the issue, but I have no confirmation on that. Whatever it was…Syracuse took the issue seriously. On the field, Thomas is a gifted player. Led the team in tackles and had 6 INTs this year (9 for his career). Good tackler. Can be a good hitter. Opening play of the USF game was a quick screen to a receiver. Thomas flew upfield and leveled the guy. Great play. Clean, but physical. Lean, but muscular build. Athletic enough to be a centerfielder, but also a solid run defender. Can play in the box. Sometimes will get sloppy with tackling and go for hits instead of trying to wrap up his targets. Legit Safety prospect in a poor S class. Will be affected by the issue that got him suspended.

* Wisconsin WR Nick Toon is an impressive prospect. Big WR who can go up and make some spectacular catches. Son of former Jets star Al Toon. Nick really benefited from the presence of QB Russell Wilson. He finally had an NFL quality QB throwing him the ball. Toon had the best season of his college career, 64-926-10. One major factor with Toon’s value is injuries. He missed 4 games as a Junior. He missed one as a Senior. He is currently dealing with a foot issue. That kept him out of the Senior Bowl and will cause him to miss the Combine. This foot injury goes back to 2011 spring practice and is the reason for the missed game this season. Foot issues in a big receiver will raise serious red flags. Doesn’t seem likely to be a Top 100 pick anymore.

* One Senior who is doing well these days is Cal OT Mitchell Schwartz. He is hardly an unknown guy, but his showing at the Senior Bowl got some people’s attention. Schwartz was the one OT who had some success against Quinton Coples. Schwartz played both RT and LT at Cal. 4-year starter. Good size. Better run blocker than pass protector, but good enough to play OT. I’m not sure most teams would project him to LT. Lacks ideal athletic ability. He could be a very good RT or even G. Cal had a similar player named John Welbourn that was taken in the 1999 draft. He started at RT, but got hurt and then settled in at LG for a solid career. Schwartz could go as early as the 2nd round. If not there, 3rd or 4th. Won’t last beyond that unless there is some strange issue. Schwartz is fun to watch as a run blocker. He really gets after it. Actually put Coples on the ground in the Senior Bowl.

* Schwartz’s teammate Mychal Kendricks is also a fun guy to watch. The 6’0, 240 MLB was the Pac-12 Def. Player of the Year. He led the Golden Bears in tackles and TFLs, and also added a pair of INTs. Kendricks plays with a ton of energy and flies around the field. He has good speed and range. If he was a step faster, Kendricks would be a terrific prospect. He makes a lot of plays now, but that extra step would make him deadly. Good blitzer. Cal lets him attack on a regular basis. Had 3 sacks this year and 8.5 last season. Kendricks can be a downhill attacking LB or he can sit back, read plays, and chase the ball. That will help him appeal to a lot of teams. Good tackler. Tries to wrap up his targets. Has pop when he hits. I’m shocked he only had 1 FF in his career. That’s low for a tough, physical player. I like Kendricks as a 3rd round target.

* Mississippi State Junior Fletcher Cox is emerging as a serious prospect. Originally I thought of him as 2nd round material. The more I watch him, the more I like him. Gifted athlete. Looks as much like a DE as he does a DT. If you want a run stuffer, look elsewhere. Cox lists at 6’4, 295. He is at his best on the move and attacking upfield. MSU plays him at DE and DT. Equally effective at both. There was a play in the Kentucky game that impressed the heck out of me. Cox was the RDE. Came off the ball quickly. Stayed low and started to get by the LT. Cox saw the QB move up in the pocket so he used a very good spin move to get by the OT to the inside. Cox then hit the QB just after he got rid of the ball. You just don’t see DTs flash that kind of quickness, speed, strength, and agility very often. I think he’s absolutely a 1st rounder now. Question becomes how high? I think 3-4 teams will covet him as a DE. You saw what JJ Watt did for the Texans. That could be Cox for someone else. I am curious to see how he measures in at the Combine. I hope he’s not 6’3, 285. That would change things a bit.

Jordan White
WR
Western Michigan
6’0, 215  (est.)

2011: 140 receptions, 1911 yards, 13.7 YPC, 61 long, 17 TD
2010: 94 REC, 1378 YDS, 14.7 YPC, 74 LNG, 10 TD
2009: 53 REC, 684 YDS, 12.9 YPC, 54 LNG, 4 TD
2008: out due to torn ACL
2007: 19 REC, 217 YDS, 11.4 YPC, 50 LNG, 1 TD
2006: out due to torn ACL
Father, James White, played DE in the NFL for the Cleveland Browns … DOB: 6/4/88

Actually first wrote about him before last year’s Combine, when I mistakenly thought he had entered the draft. It’s amazing to me how underrated and undervalued Jordan White still is, especially in light of the ridiculous senior season he just had — 140 catches (led the nation), 1,911 yards, and 17 touchdowns! Not a bad way to improve upon the 94-catch, 1,378-yard, 10-touchdown campaign he had in 2010.

You probably saw him in a number of SportsCenter highlights this past season — that tends to happen when a player goes for at least 12 catches in a preposterous 8 of 13 games. That includes a 16-catch, 238-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Toledo in a 66-63 loss (a game in which another of my favorite wide receiver prospects, Eric Page, went for 9 catches, 168 yards, and 5 — yes, 5 — touchdowns) and a 13-catch, 265-yard, 1-touchdown performance against Purdue in the Little Caesars Bowl. He also went for 12 catches and 119 yards in an opening week loss to Michigan.

Missed two full seasons (2006 and 2008) in college because of ACL tears in his left AND right knee, so his health is obviously a valid concern. White is one of the rare players who got a 6th year of eligibility. However, healthy the past three seasons, White was the most productive wide receiver in all of college football — remarkably dominant, really. His numbers were just cartoonish, and when I watch him play, I see NFL ability.    

Positives

- White has a thick, strong build at 6’0″ and 215 pounds and is as tough as they come at the wide receiver position.
- Out of all the wide receiver prospects I’ve watched, he might just be the best at catching the ball through contact. So many times White would get smoked while making a catch, hold on to the ball, pop up immediately, and go right back over the middle on the next play. Dude’s fearless.
- Displays excellent concentration; a dependable target with soft hands who ALWAYS catches/plucks the ball away from his body.
- Excellent athlete with superb body control who’s made his fair share of circus catches.
- While not a burner (I’m guessing he runs in the 4.5 range), he possesses a certain explosiveness and gets up to top speed quickly.
- Has shown a knack for turning short receptions into long gains, which is something he did plenty with screen passes, and is very dangerous after the catch (breaks tackles, stiff-arms defenders, and is surprisingly elusive in the open field).
- Attacks the ball at its highest point and will fight to make the catch.
- Has a gift for finding the soft spot in the defense. Just knows how to get open.

Negatives

- Might not have the initial quickness off the line or out of his breaks to separate from NFL cornerbacks
- Blocking: Inconsistent and didn’t seem too engaged, but rarely was he ever asked to block anyway. I don’t see this as a skill deficiency, just an aspect of his game that needs some practice/work (I have no doubt he’ll put in the necessary effort).
- Sometimes he’d break routes off too early or get lazy and sag if he thought the ball wasn’t coming his way. I think that’s a weakness that can be remedied with coaching, though. I don’t get the sense that White is a lazy player or a diva or isn’t willing to work hard. After all, you don’t come back from two serious knee injuries like he did without being dedicated and gaining a certain appreciation for the opportunity to play the sport you love.

Overall, I think Jordan White could immediately step in as a slot receiver in the NFL and even develop into a #2. I currently have him pegged as a 5th round value. Do understand that his grade will be greatly affected by medical exams at the Combine. With a clean bill of health, he could go even earlier. If there are red flags, he won’t be on all 32 draft boards. Medical concerns aside, the guy can flat out play.

* * * * *

Dan is an avid draftnik and regular contributor to SB Nation Philly, as well as running his own blog.

First of all, here are my top four in order. They are the only prospects I have Top 32 grades on.

1. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
2. Kendall Wright, Baylor
3. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
4. Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers

Some thoughts on each…

In talking about receivers, a few people have started to tell me they think Justin Blackmon is too small, too slow and might be overrated and asked me my opinion. Well, here’s my opinion in a little story…

Back in 2006, Notre Dame was playing North Carolina and a true freshman came in and lit the Irish up for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Tommy will remember the game because I was flipping out. Two years later in 2008, that same kid killed them again to the tune of nine catches for 144 yards. I badly wanted that receiver to be an Eagle and Hakeem Nicks is having a fine career with the Giants right now.

Both players are about the same size – Blackmon may be a bit heavier. That’s where it ends. Justin Blackmon is faster, more athletic, has much better hands and has amazed me every time I’ve watched him play. Watch the amount of yards Blackmon picks up after initial contact; or the sheer concentration he puts into some of the circus catches he makes. See the moves he makes going over the middle as he gets hit, bounces off, puts a spin move on a safety and then jukes another out of his jock. That’s special ability right there for a bigger wideout.

Justin Blackmon is tough, has great hands, plus speed and is a very, very good athlete. I don’t even feel the need to write more about him other than to say that he’s one of the best players at his position I’ve ever scouted.

If teams want an absolute burner though, they may go for the next guy.

That guy would be Kendall Wright. RGIII may want to chip off a piece of his Heisman and make some jewelry out of it for Kendall, because he deserves it. Wright reminds me quite a bit of current Pittsburgh Steeler receiver Mike Wallace and I’m sure I’ll be the 1,000th person to say that.

When you invest a pick in Wright, you’re buying a weapon, not a wide receiver. He can be used on jet sweeps, trick plays, in the Wild Cat (although it’s not working anymore) or in the obvious fashion – at wide receiver. He is an absolutely explosive athlete. Wright has some of the quickest feet I have ever seen and goes full throttle at the drop of a dime. His ability to get to stop speed that fast and eat up cushion didn’t allow corners to get clean transitions on him this season and he ate them alive on deep routes.

And this leads me to one of the things scouts will covet with Wright, his big play ability. In watching Baylor this year he was inconsistent with route-running, but showed at times he understood it. There were times he would stem very late and just make a corner look absolutely silly, coming wide open for a score. At other times, he got by on pure speed. If you can unlock that at the next level; you’re dealing with a monster. Wright is also a YAC machine on hitches and slants that every defense is going to have to account for with more than one defender. You can’t play your safeties back with this type of kid out there. Look at what teams have been forced to do because of DeSean Jackson in Philadelphia – that’s what Wright can bring to an NFL team.

Kendall does have very good hands, will take hits and has good body control as well. Again, the downside here is inconsistent route-running. Also, not all teams are going to love the small frame. Personally, I can deal with that.

Michael Floyd has come a long way since Brian Kelly became head coach at Notre Dame – and if you don’t believe that – watch the tape. Once coaches like Tony Alford, Charley Molnar and Mike Denbrock started to work with him the refinements became obvious.

Floyd has an outstanding frame at 6-foot-3, 229 pounds and while I doubt he’ll run a blistering 40-yard dash, he can be a great deep threat as he is a galloper. His ability to high-point the ball has been seen more than enough, especially under Weis whose offense called for receivers to adjust to under thrown deep balls. He has very good hands, exhibits outstanding body control and just looks the part of a top-shelf NFL talent.

Two big things stand out that the new staff taught him. One, he’s worked harder in every aspect of the game. Look at his blocking over the past two years at Notre Dame. Floyd isn’t just an adequate blocker; he’s a damn good one. He has also turned into a much better route-runner over that time, although he still needs to work on it. The second thing the new regime did was essentially tell him to shape up or ship out with his alcohol issues. For those reading this who think his DUI was a first offense – it was not. It was essentially a third offense dating back to his high school days at Cretin-Derham. Even though Res Life at Notre Dame cleared Floyd this past year, Brian Kelly was fully prepared to play without him if he did not fix his life.

I have one big question with Michael – how tough is he? I’m not talking about coming back from injury; I’m talking about taking hits over the middle. I’ve never missed a Notre Dame game and I can tell you, he’ll short-arm passes. Can’t do that in the NFL. If you’re a big guy, you have to play big. Heck, if you’re a little guy you have to play big (see Steve Smith).

Mohamed Sanu is a player that gets love in the Tri-State, but outside of our area isn’t catching on as much. Granted, Rutgers isn’t a national powerhouse, but he isn’t necessarily a guy that has crept onto the scene.

The first thing you have to love about Mo is his toughness. I believe people really underestimate that quality for a college player transitioning to the show. Sanu doesn’t back down from contact and he’ll go over the middle and put his body on the line. He is also a very versatile player. Lining up in the slot or playing either X or Z comes completely natural for the Rutgers product.

Mo also steps up against top-shelf competition. He’s put up big numbers against vaunted secondaries like North Carolina and Connecticut (don’t sleep on Blidi Wreh-Wilson) and furthermore, returns punts and has thrown four touchdown passes in his career.

The difficulties I have in putting a stamp on Sanu as an elite prospect come in a few areas. My biggest qualm with him is that he is not a polished route-runner, an in fact, he is far from it. To be fair to him this does stem from the way offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti used him at Rutgers – moving him around the field as a weapon. I also do not see elite speed or consistent hands from the Scarlet Knight.

I’ll admit a bit of bias as I had him as the most underrated player coming out of South Brunswick High into Rutgers 2008 recruiting class for the Fox Sports Signing Day Magazine back in the day, but I see him as a late 1st round player.

I see a slew of teams picking at the end of the 1st that he would fit nicely with.

Onto the other players being talked about in the 1st Round or around it…

Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina – I liked him coming into his senior season and didn’t see much distance between him and Floyd, other than pure athleticism. He had a rough senior year, got injured and reported just ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 249 pounds. To put that into perspective, that’s not good for a tight end.

If he does that again in Indianapolis I don’t think it’s a matter of one or two rounds, but perhaps whether or not he’ll be drafted at all. Sure, he might get snagged in the later rounds, but I can’t see it coming earlier.

Rueben Randle, LSU – Good size at just under 6-foot-4, 208 pounds. Not quick off the line, but builds up speed in his gallop. Does a nice job of simply finding soft spots in zone coverage and making plays on the ball. Has been very productive against elite SEC competition. Has gotten better as a route-runner, but still needs to work on his stemming. Doesn’t have that suddenness, but few big guys do. I see Randle as a 2nd Round guy right now.

Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M – I’ve gotten a ton of questions about him and fans seem enamored with him. He’s not my cup of tea at all. Fuller already has trouble getting off the line at the college level – that’s a big problem with me. On top of that, I see a 6-foot-4, 220-pound receiver who isn’t physical against press coverage. If you can’t get out of the starting blocks in the NFL, you’re dead meat.

Fuller’s speed is alright and he is a decent route-runner which has been his saving grace for the Aggies. The thing I liked best about him were his hands last season, but this year he had the dropsies when I saw him play often. He’ll high-point the ball and show body control, but I need more than that. I don’t see a Top 100 player here.

Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech – Admittedly, I need to actually study more of Hill and wish I could before I write this, but he came out and there is a need to address him. If you have read this site for the past six or seven years, you know I love big wideouts. Hill is a kid that I’m enamored with, but that also scares the hell out of me.

He looks all of 6-foot-5 and plays all of it as well. I don’t expect a great 40-time and don’t care. Watch him and he’s like a race horse – that speed builds on deep routes and eats DBs alive. His body control, ability to adjust to poorly thrown passes and aptitude to make the circus catch is uncanny. Unfortunately, he’s just as likely to drop a ball put right on the numbers with no one around him. I’ve seen this kid make plays that scream 1st Rounder and others that make me want to throw my spitter at the TV. Hold for a grade on him.

I’ve left out guys like Nick Toon, Brian Quick and Chris Givens right now for a reason. On Quick, I just don’t see it being a possibility. On Toon, I’m going to give him a second chance, but same thought. On Givens, I really need to do some more study. Every time I saw Wake this season Michael Campanaro was the standout.

How was everyone’s first football free weekend? If you aren’t a hockey or basketball fan, I imagine it was pretty boring. Thankfully I’m a huge hockey fan and a weekend of great matchups kept me entertained. If you’ve never been to an NHL game in person, I highly encourage it. If you aren’t a hockey fan, watching it in person will really help you gain an appreciation for the game that TV just can’t give you.

Since there obviously aren’t any NFL games to talk about, let’s talk about the offseason. This is the time of year where you need to believe just about nothing you hear. I think I’ve seen 50 articles in the past week discussing Peyton Manning and the Cardinals. I read this morning that Cortland Finnegan is going to go to St. Louis to play under Jeff Fisher again. Joe Montana has been contacted by the Dolphins to compete for their opening at QB. OK, one of those isn’t true.

The point remains that there’s a ton of misinformation out there and without knowing the source, you won’t know why the story is out there. An agent might be trying to build up interest for his client. A writer could really need a story and take a bad source at his/her word. A team might be throwing up a smoke screen to try and distract everyone from what they really want. This is fueled heavily by writers who need something to write about during this dead period. They’ll take any story they can get.

What should you as a fan do? Sit back and enjoy the ride. Peyton Manning will be linked to 25 teams by the end of the month. DeSean Jackson will sign a long term deal with the Eagles, threaten to hold out if he gets the franchise tag, sign the franchise tag so he can be traded, and get international hatred when he says Adele’s Grammy performance was “average.” Obviously a once a week blogger like myself doesn’t have any inside sources, but living in Pittsburgh I have seen former Steelers kicker Jeff Reed almost get hit by a car while he drunkenly stumbled across the street at 2 am, so I’ve got that going for me. 

Since I don’t have any sources to feed you bad information, I’m going to turn into an armchair general manager (GM). Over the next few weeks, I’ll go over team needs and how I think they should solve them. I’ll go over as many teams as possible, but I probably won’t get to all 32 before free agency starts. On 99% of accounts, I’ll be wrong. I’ll make sure I point out the 1% I’m right on so hopefully you’ll ignore the 99%. Wait, does that make me a part of the Occupy Wall Street movement or part of the evil bankers?

I’ll start off with the #1 overall pick. The Indianapolis Colts are going to look like a completely different team in 2012. In the Peyton Manning era, they’ve been very similar on offense (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB sets dominate) and defense (Cover 2 scheme with great pass rushers at DE, the cover 2 is typically in a 4 DL 3 LB base). This will likely change. Their new head coach, Chuck Pagano, ran the Ravens defense in the post Rex Ryan era. This leads many to believe that the Colts are going to change to a 3-4. Nothing official has come out yet, but it seems like a safe bet. Then there’s also the whole Peyton Manning thing. I’m going to assume they cut him for the purposes of this article because everyone else is assuming it.

The Colts are going through a rebuilding phase (the term “rebuilding” is something coaches and GMs hate, but it’s true here) and I expect a lot of roster turnover. Obviously Manning is likely gone. In addition to that, Reggie Wayne is a free agent and not likely to stay. Robert Mathis, Jeff Saturday, Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Ryan Diem are all free agents as well. So 2 of your long time starting OL (Saturday and Diem), 3 of your 4 top WRs, and one of your key DL are free agents. That’s not good. Throw in likely starting a rookie QB on a team with garbage at RB and you see some huge possible problems.

I think Wayne and Saturday are gone, with Saturday possibly retiring. Mathis is in the 50/50 range because 8-10 sack defensive ends are tough to find and some team desperate for a pass rusher might overpay him. That doesn’t even take into account whether he wants to play in a 3-4. Garcon will likely stay because the team needs some continuity on offense. I’m not sure about Diem because I don’t know what the market will be like for him given that it’s rumored he’s contemplating retirement as well. He was also moved to RG this season, a sign that his ability is fading.

This leaves holes across the board. Luck or RG3 solves the QB need for the future, but he needs guys to block for him, a good RB to take some pressure off of him, a WR opposite of Garcon who isn’t one head shot away from retirement like Austin Collie, and a defense that can keep them in games.

Let’s start with what they need to do on offense. They really, really need a good running game to take the pressure off of a rookie QB. Think of how valuable Edgerrin James was to a young Peyton Manning. Addai and Donald Brown just aren’t going to cut it. I’d consider giving Michael Bush a call if he wants to leave Oakland or Peyton Hillis if you think this past season was more bad luck than bad attitude. I really think a veteran RB is what’s needed to fill the gap here because you can’t rely on a rookie to be the primary guy. A late round draft pick would be a good idea too.

At WR, re-sign Garcon and let Wayne and Gonzalez walk. That leaves a huge hole opposite of Garcon that you fill with a mid-level FA and some depth in the draft. Early Doucet could be a good fit if he leaves Arizona or maybe a Plaxico Burress as a one year band aid. Nick Toon of Wisconsin or Marvin McNutt of Iowa could be available with their 3^rd round pick. Feel free to check Tommy and Matt’s notes as they put them up to see their opinion of those 2 WRs. I’m sure now that I’ve suggested them they’ll think they suck.

At OL, I think strength in numbers would be a good idea. I’m not sure what type of OL scheme they’re going to run under Bruce Arians (new Colts OC). The Steelers seem to like big, run blocking OL but I’m not sure if that was what Arians preferred or if it was forced on him. No matter what, the Colts need bare minimum 2 new starters at C and RG. OL is a position you can find an immediate starter in later rounds so with some good scouting and the proper scheme, one of the 2 spots could be answered via the draft. I’d make a recommendation, but I would need to know what direction they’re doing. I think they need to draft at least 2 OL and bring in 1 or 2 free agents to compete for playing time. If the scheme fits, the Eagles Jamaal Jackson is going to be cut and can be a huge asset at Center to a rookie QB.

On defense, it really depends on whether or not they’re going to switch to the 3-4. If they do, will Robert Mathis (if he re-signs) and Dwight Freeney be good at 3-4 OLB? Sure, they’re both undersized DEs with good athletic ability, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be good 3-4 OLBs. The 3-4 scheme relies heavily on a good nose tackle (NT) to eat up blocks, OLBs who can rush the passer, and ILBs who are sure tacklers and good at shedding blocks. They may have a decent NT on the roster between Moala and Antonio Johnson, but I’d have to watch some tape. They’ll need at least one 3-4 DE and hope that they can find some ILBs on the current roster. I’m not sure if their current best LB Pat Angerer will fit. Maybe they’ll be able to get Dont’a Hightower in the 2^nd round to anchor the interior of the 3-4, he’s an ideal fit there. Their secondary still terrifies me. I don’t see a lot of talent there nor a way to really fix it in the short term.

I expect the Colts to make 2 or 3 moves to add defensive starters if they do shift to the 3-4. Anthony Spencer of the Cowboys could be a free agent and he would be an instant starter at the OLB position. Casey Hampton of the Steelers might get cut and if he can be ready health wise, he could make a good backup NT. Hampton isn’t what he used to be, but he at least brings a veteran presence. As stated, at least one 3-4 DE would be a must add.

In so many words though, the Colts are in trouble in 2012. If they win 7 games I’ll be amazed. The important thing this season is to get your rookie QB ready for the NFL, get some pieces in place on defense so you can make a big jump in year 2, and don’t be an “easy out” like the Colts were sometimes this season. They showed a lot of heart sometimes (vs. the Steelers for example) and other games they looked like a college team (vs. New Orleans). If they get a true franchise QB, run the 3-4 as Pagano would want them to, and get an offensive playmaker for said QB, the Colts under Chuck Pagano could look like the Ravens or 49ers did this year with a better QB. That’s a scary thought and I’m interested to see if they can pull it off. This year won’t be exciting, but Peyton Manning’s rookie year wasn’t either. Year 2 was just a little different (The Colts went from 3-13 Manning’s rookie year to 13-3 and a first round bye in the playoffs).

I’m going to spin a random wheel here to see who the next team is… *bigmoneybigmoneynowhammy* Seattle!!!!!

The Seahawks are an interesting team. They have issues at QB (Tavaris Jackson is at best a really good backup QB), RB if Marshawn Lynch leaves in free agency, and defensive end (they really don’t have much after Chris Clemons, yes, you read that right, Chris Clemons is their best DE). On the bright side, they have a pretty good WR corps if Sidney Rice can stay healthy. Doug Baldwin, an undrafted rookie out of Stanford had 51 catches for 788 yards as a backup. Put him between Rice and either Mike Williams or Golden Tate and you’ve got a solid top 3. They may have the best safety duo in the NFL with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. Brandon Browner was a Pro Bowl CB that no one outside of Seattle knew existed. They were a team that never seemed to quit and even in losses they made sure it wasn’t easy.

So, how do they take the next step? First and foremost, QB. Unfortunately, they aren’t in a position to get Luck or RG3. It would take a herculean trade to get them into the range to get whichever QB the Colts pass on and I don’t think it’s going to happen. So, what are their options? Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M is generally considered to be the #3 QB in the draft. Then there’s Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, Jason Campbell, and Kyle Orton in free agency. Alex Smith is a free agent as well, but he’d be a fool to leave San Francisco. No way in hell does Drew Brees leave New Orleans.

Jason Campbell isn’t going to be much of an upgrade over Tavaris Jackson and I don’t know what to think of Kyle Orton anymore. Assuming Peyton is available, I still think Seattle will be his destination. They have an owner capable of spending the cash, they have a good team with pieces around Manning to make him successful, and a coaching staff who would love to work with Manning and would give him the freedom he wants. If they can’t get him, Matt Flynn would be a decent consolation prize. I don’t think Tannehill is worth a first round pick (that doesn’t mean he won’t go there though) and your absolute worst case scenario is Kyle Orton comes to compete with Jackson for the starting QB job. The Seahawks offseason will be a failure if they don’t get a huge upgrade at QB.

Elsewhere, they need a little work but not much. After QB, their next big priority is re-signing Marshawn Lynch. He’ll be only 26 when the season starts and is coming off his best season as a pro (1204 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing). Lock him up and make sure whoever is QB next year has a reliable RB. They could use a good backup RB behind Lynch. I really don’t see much in the free agent crop that won’t be looking for a starting gig, so the draft is a good spot for them to find a good backup RB. Quality RBs can be found in the 3^rd or 4^th round because the NFL does not place a high priority on the position. Maybe Pete Carroll will like local Washington product Chris Polk.

I think DE is the top priority for the draft and the mock draft Matt Alkire did here hit the nail on the head: Quinton Coples. His size and ability are perfect for their DE position and could possibly be a day 1 starter for them. They could go after Mario Williams, but I don’t know if they could do that and Peyton Manning in the same offseason. If they do, wow. The other FA DEs are possible as well, but I think they’d rather get a DE through the draft.

Then there’s Red Bryant. Bryant is an interesting player that I myself even overlooked. The Seahawks have him listed as a DE on their depth chart, but his technical position is “manchild run defender/playmaker.” He’s a monster in run support and has a knack for making plays. He’s one of those guys you wonder if he has polar bear DNA or something with his strength. He absolutely mauls whoever is in
front of him. He had 4 blocked kicks and 2 interceptions this year, including one returned for a touchdown against the Bears. He’s likely to hit the market and it was difficult for me to know where he’d project.

I asked Tommy about him and he brought up something the casual fan probably didn’t notice. On first downs, the Seahawks would use Bryant as a “DE” along with the other starting DTs and Chris Clemons, a pure DE. When there, he’d play a 5 technique, the same technique used by DEs in 3-4 schemes. It seems as if that will be where he projects best and more than likely if the Seahawks go after a DE in free agency or high in the draft, Bryant won’t be worth the price tag a 3-4 team will
offer him and he’ll walk. Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers how important great 3-4 DEs can be to your defense. They’ve spent 2 of their past 3 first round picks on them. Bryant could be that player who anchors his half of the DL.

They will need some new talent at LB. The emergence of rookie K.J. Wright at SAM allowed Seattle to trade Aaron Curry for a bag of used footballs during the season. Leroy Hill is a free agent. They could go after a starter in free agency, re-sign Hill, or use someone already on the roster. I do think it would be a good decision to bring in some new talent at LB.  Hill doesn’t seem like a long term answer.  David Hawthorne is a good MLB, but is also a free agent and the team must decide if he’s replaceable or worth good money.

Finally, the last thing they need is a little depth at CB. The aforementioned Browner and rookie Richard Sherman did a good job, but long time starter Marcus Trufant is likely gone and I’m not a big fan of their depth. A veteran with starting experience would be a good bet but I think this is something the Seahawks will use a mid round (4^th or 5^th) round pick on.

The 2012 Seattle Seahawks won’t take the next step without improved QB play. They got the most out of what they had the past 2 seasons, but as I wrote about before, you need a franchise QB to win the Super Bowl. Peyton is definitely a francise QB if he’s healthy. Matt Flynn could be that guy. Other than that, I really don’t see the Seahawks taking a huge step forward and turning from a .500 or wild card team to Super Bowl contender without a franchise QB.

Quick Hits

-Is anyone else surprised by Tiger Woods’ final day at Pebble Beach? For those who don’t know, Tiger had a rough final day and fell down the leader board. Hmm, a guy who struggles late in the game in a clutch situation, sounds like Tony Romo. Oh wait, Tony Romo was his partner? Talk about a bad influence. Tony Romo chokes so bad he apparently has an aura of choking that affects those around him.

-Is anyone else sick of all the crying over the Hall of Fame voting process? It gets worse every single year. Granted, I see the flaws, but why is it so important to some people that some millionaire they never met gets recognition from 44 voters?

-Randy Moss is making a comeback? Allow me to translate: Randy Moss needs money.

-I don’t care what a player does after losing the Super Bowl. Would I be partying? No, but I’m not going to judge a person on what they legally do in their free time. Maybe Gronk and Light wanted to get away and not mope around in a hotel room so they decided to get their mind off of things. People need to stop obsessing so much over what an athlete does in his free time. When they break the law, sure, make a big deal about it. Otherwise, I don’t know why anyone cares.

-It’s rumored that Hines Ward could be cut by the Steelers. He may be slower than some OL at this point in his career. He has always been known for his blocking, maybe he can put on 90 pounds an extend his career?

-Just in case you didn’t hear, Broncos RB (or soon to be former RB) Knowshon Moreno got busted for DUI and his license plate says “SAUCED.” Amusingly ironic. Moreno has been an extremely disappointing pro. In a RB class with Moreno, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Shonn Greene, and some guy named LeSean McCoy, Moreno has probably been the 2^nd worst after Brown. Greene is OK, Wells is improving, and McCoy is a superstar. It’s kind of funny how Moreno was seen as a sure thing by most, myself included, and now he’s in danger of getting cut.

-I laughed a little when Tom Brady’s supermodel wife blamed his teammates for the loss. If there’s even a shred of doubt in the Patriots’ locker room that Brady isn’t as intense as he used to be, that match just had kerosene dumped on it.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, @NFLGimpy.

* I don’t think Courtney Upshaw is worth a Top 10 pick. Very good player, but I think he lacks the explosion to be an elite pass rusher. 3-4 teams may love him anyway, but there is no way a 4-3 team should consider him that early.

* Wisconsin FB Bradie Ewing is a good receiver. He made the impressive sideline grab in the Senior Bowl, but put on any UW game and you’ll see him catch the standard FB passes. I just like the fact he does it so smoothly.

* Utah OL Tony Bergstrom will turn 26 in August. That will affect his draft value, if only a bit.

* Temple LB Tahir Whitehead got a Combine invitation. He’s a good athlete and it won’t surprise me to see him open some eyes with his numbers.

* Ever heard of Frank Trotter? DL from Memphis. Goes 6’2, 275. Played DT most of his career. Moved to DE halfway through 2011. Effort guy. Great motor and some quickness. Finished his career with 36.5 TFLs. Limited prospect, but interesting player.

* Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus had 9 FFs this year. That is amazing. 9 FFs is a good career, let alone a single season. I haven’t written much on him, but I’ve got a post coming. Very good DE.

* LB Nigel Bradham quietly had a very good showing in the Senior Bowl. I think he’s a WLB. Real good player when he’s kept clean, but really struggles to deal with blockers.

* DT Alameda Ta’Amu is going to be a really interesting player to follow. Watch him at the Senior Bowl and you see a dominant player. Watch some regular season games and you see the same thing. Other games he disappeared at times. Is this a guy who someone will take in the 1st round? Does he go 2nd? 3rd? Tons of potential, but his value will be all over the place.

* How does anyone value OT Zebrie Sanders in the 2nd round? I’m not sure I’d be interested in the 4th round. His game tape isn’t good. The Senior Bowl was a disaster for him. Nice frame. Good experience. Might be high character, tough, and stuff like that, but he’s a waist-bender and doesn’t have good feet. I don’t see him as being worth a Top 100 pick.

Football has become more and more of a passing league.  The emphasis on size has gone away.  Teams need a SAM to be someone that can hold his ground on run plays that come at him, but that can be done by a 6’1, 240 LB.  The key now is for him to be able to hang with TEs, based more on athleticism that just size.  Teams are now moving TEs around so if that happens with the SAM on the field, he must be able to play more in space.

Some blitzing or 3-4 teams will still have interest in converting DEs to SAMs.  You see this with Mathias Kiwanuka in NY or Brian Orakpo in WAS.  Kiwi can be a liability in coverage, but is good vs run and still a good pass rusher.  Orakpo is okay in coverage, but still a good pass rusher. Teams that run the Tampa 2 or Wide-9 are going to prefer pure LBs at SAM.

So let’s talk about some SAM prospects:

Zach Brown – UNC – 6’1, 236

I’ve written quite a bit about Zach in the last 6 months.  He is a special athlete.  He covers ground like a DB.  He can cover TEs or RBs and even some WRs.  Zach is going to be lacking as a run defender.  He’s not at his best as a POA guy.  You can’t coach speed.  Zach has that.  He flies all over the field.  You can coach tackling and run defense.  In time, Zach could become better at taking on blockers.  There’ s no guarantee he will, but the potential is there.  He’s acknowledged in interviews that he must get better at tackling and run defense.  That’s a key…admitting you need to improve.  Not all teams will want Zach as a SAM, but he fits there for plenty of teams. Great cover guy.  Can even make coverage plays (7 career picks).  Good blitzer (5.5 sacks this year).  Big enough.  Has potential as a run defender.  Let’s face it, in today’s NFL you’re more worried about stopping Eli Manning than Brandon Jacobs.  Brown can do that.  Will go in the 20-40 range.  With sensational Combine, maybe goes before 20.

Travis Lewis – Oklahoma – 6’2, 228 (est.)

Trying to find a spot for Lewis is tricky.  He’s listed as an ILB on the Combine invite list.  Has the body of a WLB.  Is tough enough vs the run and covers well enough to play SAM.  I think teams will have differing opinions on how best to use Lewis.  Will strike blockers and fight through trash to get to the ball. Has pretty good cover skills.  Has a bit of a nasty streak.  Gets in his shots when he can.  Lewis can be a sloppy tackler (too high at times), but it isn’t due to lack of physicality.  Posted ridiculous numbers: 446 tackles, 9 INTs, 31 TFLs, 12 PBUs, and 4 FFs. Has different type of personality and that can help or hurt him.  Spirited, emotional leader.  And cocky…or is that arrogant?  Need to see him at the Combine to find out exact size and just how athletic he is.  OU has had some guys turn out to be surprisingly unathletic over the years.

Keenan Robinson – Texas – 6’3, 240

This is the closest thing to a complete SAM.  Has the size you want.  Slender build so he will add on bulk and get up in the 250 range.  Pretty good cover skills.  Able to hang with TEs and get depth on zone drops.  Only a limited playmaker in coverage (2 INTs).  Showed at the Senior Bowl that he can play up on the LOS and battle blockers.  Wasn’t great, but showed promise.  Mostly off the ball at Texas.  In his best game (vs OU in 2010), Robinson looked like a stud LB.  Played tough, physical football.  Shoved blockers around.  Fought to get to the ball on every play.  Finished with 19 tackles and 1.5 TFLs.  Had 5.5 sacks in career, but showed good pass rush skills at Senior Bowl in the practices.  With the right coach pushing the right buttons, could become a really good NFL SAM.  Could go 2nd or 3rd.  Interesting to see how he does at the Combine.

Bobby Wagner – Utah State – 6’0, 241

Played SAM at the Senior Bowl.  Played all over in college.  Literally lined up at OLB, ILB, and as upright DE.  Love the versatility, but downside is that he didn’t develop fully at one spot.  Lacks ideal size for SAM.  Even today you’d prefer a guy to be 6’2 to handle TEs.  Wagner is a good athlete.  Showed that in Mobile as he made a leaping INT and later a leaping PBU while covering a TE.  Physical enough to handle run plays that come at him.  Probably best suited for WLB so he can chase plays, but I’m sure a team or two will like him at SAM due to versatility and athleticsim.  Was the MVP of the Senior Bowl.  Finished career with 445 total tackles, 4 INTs, 4.5 sacks, and 28.5 TFLs.

Shea McClellin – Boise State – 6’3, 248

This is the guy that really intrigues me.  Boise State listed him at DE, but played all over.  Was DE, OLB, and ILB.  Got used as WLB in Mobile.  Has the perfect build for SAM.  Physical enough to handle the POA on run plays.  DE experience helps in that regard as well.  Good pass rusher.  Can use quickness off the edge or blitz as stand-up LB.  Actually looks okay in coverage.  Saw him in one game tracking the RB down the field on a wheel route.  Does need work, but lots of potential.  Great motor.  Chases the ball all over.  Doesn’t just feast on light competition.  Had 2.5 sacks vs Georgia this year and 2.5 sacks vs Virginia Tech in 2010.  Finished his career with 4 INTs, 20.5 sacks, 33 TFLs, and 5 FFs.  Could be a bit of a project, but major upside.  I see him as 3rd rounder at this point.

Josh Kaddu – Oregon – 6’3, 235

Raw.  Didn’t play much in first couple of years.  Has the frame you want in a SAM.  Good pass rusher, totaling 6.5 sacks this year and 10 for his career.  Good athlete.  Can play in space.  Needs to develop cover skills.  Bit of a project, but has the size and athletic ability that any team would want in a SAM.  Mid to late round guy.

Lavonte David – Nebraska – 6’1, 225

I’m listing him here simply because he played SAM in Mobile and some team may be interested in him at that spot.  Doesn’t have the build or game for SAM right now.  Struggles with taking on blockers, but spent a lot of time working with coaches so he knows that’s an issue and is working on it.  Could bulk up to the 235 range.  At his best playing off and then attacking, but he is a physical player.  Good hitter and tackler.  Has some real pop.  Good cover skills.  At his best vs TEs.  Only played at Nebraska for 2 years after coming over from JC, but was a great college player for them.  Posted huge numbers in 2011.  Had 2 INTs, 5.5 sacks, 3 FFs, 12 TFLs, and 133 total tackles.  Had a better year than Kaddu did a career.  I think David is more of a WLB, but in today’s NFL, never say never.  I think of him as a 3rd round player.

* I have Nigel Bradham slated as WLB and Audie Cole as ILB.  Nigel isn’t meant to play up on the LOS and Audie lacks athletic ability.

* Jake Bequette played SAM in Mobile, but I think he’s a DE to 4-3 teams.  3-4 teams will want him more as a pass rusher than true SAM.

There have been a lot of good discussions and arguments on various players so far. I expect that will continue right up to and through the draft.  This is a look at the process behind scouting and the draft.

None of us has been in an NFL war room, but I have been following the NFL Draft for over 15 years now. I’ve read a ton of articles over the years. I’ve been trained by an NFL scout. I have a good feel for what goes on during the draft and the process leading up to it.

THE SCOUTS

These are the men who go out and gather info. The key to scouting is to be as thorough, precise, and detailed as possible. Scouts are the eyes and ears of the organization. Information has to be specific. A WR who made a leaping, one hand TD catch has to get more credit than a guy who catches a simple pass. A DE who beats an All American LT has to get more credit for a sack than a guy who beats a backup RT. Scouts are responsible for providing the teams with in-depth information that will help them to plan for the draft. The more detailed, the better.

Scouts start each spring. They go to colleges and build prospect lists. Some teams use their own, while others use 2 scouting services, National Football Scouting and BLESTO.    

The goal is to get an idea of who needs to be studied in the upcoming Fall. Scouts will make a list of rising Seniors and get an idea of the height and weight of each guy. Some schools will have the Juniors run 40′s for the Scouts or do some other basic drills.

The scouts and/or services then prepare a formal list for the team. Each team has their own individual scouts that they’ll send out in the Fall to do hands-on research. The teams will take the lists and break them down geographically. The Eagles, for instance, will hand their Area Scout in the South a list of players at schools that he’s responsible for. That scout will go to Florida State, Florida Atlantic, Florida A&M, UCF, USF, FIU, UF, Miami, etc. Normally, there isn’t a set order for him. Most teams will leave it up to the scouts to make their own schedule. However, some schools are restrictive and only allow scouts to come on certain days. Penn State has been very hard to deal with (although this should change with Paterno being gone). They had an antagonistic relationship with the NFL. PSU would set aside one day for scouts. Miss it and you are up the creek. Smaller schools are very aggressive with the NFL and do anything to promote their players. They realize they don’t have blue chip prospects and want to entice NFL guys to come and check out their players. Even some big schools are very user-friendly.

So what does a scout do on a visit? He’ll arrive at the football office early, probably around 7am. The rule of thumb with scouts is to always bring donuts. You give them to the secretary or the coaches or whoever. You have to make the colleges happy and everyone loves donuts.

The scout will first go talk to the Pro Liasion. This will be one of the assistant coaches. Each school selects a guy on their staff to deal with the NFL. He gets to know them and they get to know him. He coordinates visits and helps in any way he can.

The PL will give the scout some info on the players. Most guys will be fairly honest, but there are those who won’t say a bad word. Scouts figure out pretty quickly who they can rely on and who is being protective of the players.  A good scout will have a good BS meter.  He’s got to be able to gather legit information and not just fluff from a coach hyping his player.

The scout will then have several things left to do: watch tape, watch practice, interview misc. people. He’ll do those according to what fits the team’s practice schedule the best.

Watching tape is fairly self explanatory. The scout sometimes will be joined by scouts from other teams. You sit and watch a game or two and take thorough notes.

The misc. interviews can be critical. The scout will talk to anyone around the football team about the players. Maybe it’s a trainer…a team manager…secretary…security guard…janitor…whoever. These people interact with the players on a daily basis and get to see the guys when their guard is down. Players nowadays can be pretty smart. They’ll be one person for the media and the NFL, but another person entirely when the spotlight is off. These people won’t offer much football insight obviously, but they can tell you whether a player is courteous, friendly, outgoing or shy, punctual, neat, organized, focused, etc.

If there are concerns about a player of interest or if it is an elite prospect, a scout may go talk to various people around the campus or the town. You can never have too much background info on someone you’ll be paying a six-figure salary. Beyond that, scouts will call coaches in a prospect’s background. OL Sean Locklear was shocked to hear that scouts had called his 6th grade coach to ask about him.  And he was just a 4th round pick.

As for watching practice…the scout isn’t looking at pure football stuff there either. He wants to see how the player interacts with other players. Is he a leader or follower? Is he a clown or intense? He’s also looking to see how the player responds to coaching. Does he repeat mistakes or does he soak up what he’s being taught and change. You’re also still looking at general behavior. Does the player hustle constantly? Is he in the front of the line for drills or does he lag to the back? All of these elements are of interest.

At some schools, the scout will get to talk to or interact with the players themselves. He won’t get too in-depth, but might strike up a casual conversation just to get a feel for a kid.

The scout then heads off to a hotel for the night. He’ll retreat to his room and write up reports on each of the prospects. He’ll then email any pertinent info back to the team to be put immediately in the database.

This happens about every day from late August through late November. The scouts all head to their team’s facilities for Draft meetings in early December.

PERSONNEL DEPT.

This group mainly stays in the home city during the Fall. They gather all the info and build up databases. They collect video from various schools. They compile “hit tapes” of key prospects. This is a video of plays where a player is involved. These hit tapes are crucial for assistant coaches and/or the HC. They don’t have time to study lots of game tape on each kid. They get a hit tape from the video dept. and can get an idea of what a kid can do pretty quickly.

Some GMs/Personnel directors do go to games on weekends. Often they’ll drive to a local school and check kids out.  Some will hop on a plane and go check out significant prospects.

It is also important for the Personnel Dept. to sort through the evaluations being sent in from scouts. All big schools (and key prospects) are cross-checked. Teams have a cross-check scout cover them so that they have multiple opinions on a kid. If the two reports are far apart, a third person may be brought in to help finalize a grade.  Scouts are people.  They can fall in love with a player and overrate them or get turned off by a prospect and be overly harsh.  The cross check scout is there to make sure that the team has accurate grades.

They will put together the draft board at some point. They will also do mock draft scenarios in early April to look at what might happen and to get a feel for what players could be available when their team picks.

THE REPORTS

So a team may have a handful of scouts looking at players. How do they judge them on the same level? How do you grade a kid from Florida State and a kid from Valdosta State?  You use the same criteria. Players are rated in two critical areas…positional ability and athletic ability.

Positional ability is learned football skills…how to catch a football…pass rushing moves…blocking techniques…etc. This isn’t as important as the other area. Players can be taught technique. It is good, though, when you find a guy that knows about proper footwork or which hand to use to break up a pass or whatever. The more skilled a guy is, the more ready to play he’ll be.

Athletic ability is simply natural ability. Guys have it or they don’t. They can train and improve it, but there has to be something to work with. There are specific areas to judge players on:

* Straight line speed

* QAB (Quickness/Agility/Balance)

* COD (Change of Direction)

* Strength (lower body and upper body…functional vs raw)

Those were the key areas I was taught about. Each area has a varying level of importance to different positions.

You cannot simply look at stats and decide who can do what. They will act as a guideline when used properly, but don’t tell the whole story. You are judging players on ability, not results. And that is crucial to understand. Results get guys listed on All American teams. The NFL rates guys according to his ability as a pro prospect.

THE ALL STAR GAMES

There is only one “can’t miss” all star game. That is the Senior Bowl in Mobile, AL. It is coached by NFL teams and has the best players available.

The other all star games aren’t as stable and have struggled to stay afloat.

* The East-West Shrine Game once was huge, but now is mid/late round guys & UDFAs.
* The NFLPA game has some late round/UDFAs of interest.

There are a slew of other games, but none is significant enough to cover at length.

Each of those games has its own level of importance. Regardless, they can all be useful tools for NFL teams. The small games will be attended by some scouts, but nothing like the Senior Bowl. Unfortunately, the games are usually run by oddball coaching staffs and aren’t as intense as the Senior Bowl. Those games are as much a reward for a great college career as they are about feeding the NFL.  The Shrine Game this year did have some active NFL assistant coaches involved.  That would be something good to continue in the future.

The Senior Bowl gets everyone. GMs, Head Coaches, assistants, and scouts all pile into Mobile to study kids in practice and to meet with them and get to know them. Approximately 700-800 NFL coaches and personnel people attend each year. It is the only time all year when practice is more important than a game. Coaches and scouts study the practice tapes over and over to watch how the prospects do in various drills.

These games don’t serve as a substitute for the regular season, but rather as a tool. They give scouts a chance to watch players all work under similar circumstances. A WR might suffer from poor QB play during the year. In Mobile, he’ll get the same QB’ing as the other guys on his unit. NFL people can then tell who is really struggling or who is playing well. This will only be a small part of the overall Draft grade, but it can be very important. Imagine a final exam taking a student from an A to an A-, or from a B to a B+.

The all star games act as a cross check device.  Does the player look better in the game than he did in the regular season?  If so, why?  A couple of years back DT Kentwan Balmer had a very strong showing at the Senior Bowl.  He played like a Top 50 pick.  His grades weren’t that good going into the game.  Teams re-checked his tape and confirmed that he wasn’t that good of a player.  He was a late pick and has now been on a couple of teams.  The Senior Bowl showed that he had significant natural ability, but the pedestrian game tape showed that he didn’t play hard consistently and likely had poor work habits.  That’s not someone you want to give a six-figure salary to.

THE COMBINE

Every year in late February, NFL scouts and coaches gather in Indianapolis for the National Scouting Combine. Approximately 350 players will be invited to come to Indy to be tested, measured, and to work out in various drills. Like the all star games, this is not a way for players to make up for having a bad year. Rather, it is a tool that focuses on the prospects as athletes.

* 40 yd dash
* Bench Press (reps of 225 lbs)
* Vertical jump
* Broad jump
* 3 cone drill
* Short shuttle
* Long shuttle

Players will do some positional drills, but won’t wear pads. Heck, they don’t even wear helmets. It is just guys in shorts working out.

The 40 yd dash is the most famous (or infamous) test. As everyone knows, it receives far too much weight, from some teams and certainly the general public. NFL scouts put more focus on the 3-cone drill than any other. It lets them see a player’s speed, quickness, agility, and ability to change directions.

The other key to Indy is that NFL teams bring a medical staff and do thorough research on certain prospects. They want to know about a lingering shoulder issue or how well an ACL injury healed or if a guy has some weird situation. Players hate being checked out like this, but teams think it is absolutely crucial. In 2005, Tennesse RB Cedric Houston fell to the 6th Round because of a Thyroid condition that was discovered at The Combine.

Teams also meet with prospects and interview them. Some teams give aptitude or personality tests to players. The standard test is called The Wonderlic, but other teams use different material to help them. The Giants are famous for a 300+ question albatross.

Not all top prospects will workout in Indy. Back in the mid-1990′s, the running surface in the RCA Dome developed a reputation as being slow. Elite guys were worried about running there and having a poor 40 time. They opted to wait for their school’s Pro Day. In the last decade, more and more players are doing full workouts.  This is a great trend.  It is always good to judge apples vs apples.  One of the attractions to the Scouting Combine is that you get to see guys workout in the exact same situation. There is no concern about weather or surface or any variables.

Fans and the media make more out of the Combine than it is. Teams focus on game tape. That is the heart and soul of scouting. Watching workouts is a tool, but usually only confirms what you’ve seen on tape. A good showing in Indy will have impact, but only if there is on-field performance to back it up. Check out this quote, “We don’t draft the pretty girls at the combine that run 4.3s and don’t play,” said Eric DeCosta, the Ravens’ director of college scouting. “We want the guys that, when we put in the tape in October and spend eight hours in a dark room, they are the ones who make every play.” Well said.

PRO DAYS / INDIVIDUAL WORKOUTS

Every school has a Pro Day. This is a school sponsored event where the team’s Senior players (and early entrants) will workout for scouts and/or Personnel people. It isn’t a big deal at some places, but can be a Who’s Who kind of event at Alabama, Miami, or USC.

Players will be put through the same drills as those done at the Combine. The difference is that the conditions may not be ideal. Some will be worse, some better. Scouts will note this in their reports. A guy won’t simply run a 4.59 40. He’ll run a 4.59 – with the wind, wearing track spikes, wearing shorts, on a Tartan surface. Or maybe it is a 4.59 – into the wind, wearing tennis shoes, wearing shorts, on a soft surface. Maybe it had rained the night before and the conditions were wet. Whatever…the scouts will note that info so that people evaluating the information can tell that no 2 times are alike, unless they come from the Combine.

The devil is in the details.

THE DRAFT BOARD

You will hear teams constantly refer to “their board”. This is the draft board. Essentially, it is a wall with grades for hundreds of propsects. Teams differ in how they put this together. Some teams will have 300 to 400 grades. Other teams are more restrictive. The Ravens like to have 175 or so names on their board.  The Broncos once had less than 100 players listed.  That might be going a bit far.  The Browns used start out with a list of 1100+ names in the early Fall. That is about 350 by December and somewhere in the 150-175 range in April.

Some teams may put together a real early board in December. The Eagles first board is put together in mid-February, prior to the Scouting Combine. The board is adjusted as information changes or becomes available. If a prospect tears his ACL while working out, he has to go down. If a player had an injury, but works out for scouts and looks good, he might rise.

You’ll hear the media talk about a player’s stock rising or falling. I don’t really buy into this. Teams have been doing research for months. Mel Kiper may discover a player and have him rise up the charts, but chances are that teams have had a good grade on him that whole time. What if a guy goes to the Senior Bowl and really blows people away? Well, that certainly could help a player’s grade, but understand that in order to be invited to the Senior Bowl, a prospect already has to have a pretty solid reputation in the NFL scouting community. The Senior Bowl asks guys like Cam Johnson, James-Michael Johnson, or Doug Martin to come because that is who the NFL scouts have told the Senior Bowl they want to see. Media types will talk about these players as rising up the charts when in fact they may have already been up there.

There are exceptions, of course. Underclassmen that come out are guys who teams sometimes will know very little about. They can absolutely move up and down as teams get more info on them.  Small school players can help themselves a lot.  CB Josh Norman opened a lot of eyes at the Shrine Game and got added to the Senior Bowl.  Dwight Bentley had a very good week in Mobile and helped himself.  When a guy like Tony Scheffler proves to be a much better athlete than expected at the Combine, that will push his grade up.

“Rising/falling” lists are fun to read and they can make good discussion material, but chances are the NFL teams already had those players appropriately graded. Very few guys really fall from the 1st Rd to the middle of the draft or go from the middle to up high. That is more media perception than reality.

On draft day, you’ll hear teams say that “we stayed true to our board”. This means that they chose the highest rated player rather than reaching for a positional need. Often times, though, a board will have multiple guys with the same grade. In that case, you take the player you need or is the best fit. The point of the draft board is for a team to have a set list of grades going into the draft. That way they have a good idea of the big picture. If a team only focused on needs, they might pass up a good LB for a mediocre TE. That’s no good. You have to look at the big picture. Passing on talent can be costly.

THE DRAFT

Understand what the draft is and what teams are looking for.

At its simplest, the NFL Draft is about acquiring talent. The scouting process should help teams to identify who the most talented players are. However, it isn’t just talent. You have to work in other factors. This is how teams develop final draft grades and build a draft value board.

Teams factor in character, personality, what positions are most critcal, what style of player fits their system, injury history, intelligence, instincts, and other miscellaneous intangibles.

The NFL Draft, in essence, comes down to 3 words: Value, Talent, Potential.

The whole process can almost be cold. As I mentioned earlier, achievements and awards go out the window. The NFL is looking for guys with raw talent…with pro potential. Go back to 1999. DE Tom Burke of Wisconsin had a huge Senior year and finished his career with 32 sacks. He was the 83rd pick that year. DE Tony Bryant played at Florida State and didn’t have half that many sacks in his career. He went 40th in the Draft. What a guy did in college is worth noting, but the bigger concern is what he will do in the NFL.  This is a re-shuffling of the deck.

Scouts and coaches are looking for guys with NFL potential, simple as that. They are looking for certain sizes and body types. They need a certain amount of athletic ability. And it has to be a certain kind of athletic ability.

Is the prospect fast? “Yes.” “Great.”
Is the prospect quick? “Yes.” Great, again.”
Does the prospect have good COD ability? “No.” “Too bad. Day 3 guy.”

There is always another question, another test, or another concern for the NFL. Guys are going to get downgraded for something. And that is how they whittle over 1,000 prospects down to 32 1st Rounders.

Each team varies in the way they grade players and build a draft board. The Oakland Raiders famously put a premium on speed and athleticism. The Cincinnati Bengals have taken several guys with character issues. Bill Parcells prefers bigger defensive players. Mike Shanahan likes athletic OL. And so on.

Once a team has put together their draft Board, they come up with a plan. No one knows exactly what will happen on draft day, but teams will run different mock draft scenarios so that they are as prepared as possible for what might happen.

There are a couple of different philosophies on draft day. Some teams draft for the future. They go about acquiring talent and building for the long term. Other organizations address immediate needs. You can be successful either way. The key is to do a good job at whatever your philosophy is.

Maybe the plan is to land a franchise QB at all costs. Maybe it is to stock up on defensive lineman. Maybe a team is looking to add youth to the offense. Whatever. Have a plan in place and be prepared to execute it.

One of the things that makes scouting and the draft a lot of fun is that everyone seems to see different things. Scouting is an art, not a science. There is no foolproof formula. I thought the Seattle Seahawks were crazy for taking LB Lofa Tatupu in the 2nd Rd in 2005. Ouch. I could not have been more wrong. Back in 2003, I was enamored with Anquan Boldin and thought he was worthy of a late 1st Rd pick. He slid to the mid 2nd and then went out and played like an All Pro. No one is right all the time, no matter how much work and research they do and how much logic goes into their pick.

Potential is a dirty word in some NFL circles. The preferred word is “upside”.  Teams want prospects who have the ability to grow and develop. “He’s a good pass rusher now, but he’s got upside. He could develop into a special player.” Teams want guys that could sprout with NFL coaching. They also hope that through working out and a proper diet, the player can really develop physically.

Value is also a crucial word on draft day. You want to spend a top ten pick on a top ten player. If a player has a 2nd Rd grade and you have pick 21 of the 1st Rd, he’s not good value. You should try to trade back and go for him. Or take a different player who is worth pick #21. Taking a guy a few picks too early is not a big deal. Taking a guy 10 or 12 or 15 picks too early is a waste of your draft resources.

There is one caveat…if the player has a 3rd Rd grade on your board and it is your 3rd Rd pick, take him, even if you are fairly certain that most other NFL teams don’t have that high a grade on him. We’re not talking draft day hunches. We’re talking about grades. You can try to move back and get him later on, but might miss because one team does have the same grade.  Trust your grades.  Trust your draft board.

A good NFL team will place a grade/value on guys and stick to it. That does take discipline. In 1997, Ray Rhodes had become enamored with DE Jon Harris of Virginia. He was 6’7, 270 and had some athletic ability. The scouts had a lower grade on Harris. Rhodes didn’t listen to them. He played a hunch. It proved to be disastrous. There was nothing wrong with Ray really wanting Harris. The problem was taking him so high. Jon simply wasn’t worth it. Poor value.  Coaches can be a problem on draft day if they don’t trust and follow the draft board.  Rhodes lost his draft power in 1998 and the Eagles stuck to their board.  They landed players like Tra Thomas, Jeremiah Trotter, Brandon Whiting, Allen Rossum, and Ike Reese.  Not bad.

Teams don’t have to come up with incredible steals. If you can find Terrell Davis or Tom Brady in the 6th Rd, great. That is awesome. Those type of bargains can impact a franchise for years. You just need to get appropriate return. The Chargers spent a 4th Rd pick in 2004 on LB/DE Shaun Phillips. Early on he was a good situational rusher.  That was good value for a 4th Rd pick.  Phillips eventually became a starter and now has 60 career sacks.  The Chargers ended up getting great value out of the pick.

And that is the Draft…acquiring talent, but getting good value out of your picks while doing it.

McClellin is the guy I should have been focused on all along.  He is a player you can fall in love with.  Great motor.  Chases the ball all over the field and plays with a sense of desperation (good thing).  Boise moved him around a lot.  McClellin played LDE and RDE.  Played stand-up pass rusher.  Other times was an OLB and even an ILB.  I saw him rush the passer, set the edge on run plays, and drop back in coverage.  Really fun to watch him.

The downside is that he’s not great at anything.  He’s most accomplished as a pass rusher, but that’s just due to his experience there.  I think McClellin could be a 4-3 DE or OLB.  He certainly could be a 3-4 OLB.  Good build at 6’3, 248.  Has enough bulk to play up on the LOS and deal with blockers.  Athletic enough to beat OTs as a pass rusher.  I thought he showed good promise in coverage.  He just needs reps and coaching.

I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do at the Combine.  Impressed me as a WLB at the Senior Bowl.  Might be worth a 3rd round pick.

* I came away with mixed feelings on LT Nate Potter.  He is a 3-year starter and decorated college player.  His build (6’6, 295) will appeal to some teams, but certainly not all.  Those are similar numbers to an elite player like Matt Kalil, but he is a much better athlete and player than Potter.

Potter is technically sound, but doesn’t really grab your attention in any way.  He does need to get stronger for the NFL.  He played very well vs WAC and MWC competition, but Georgia defenders pushed him around more than you’d like.

Potter is a bit of a project, but could turn out to be a starting OT in the NFL with some time in the weight room and pro coaching.    I think he could be a 4th round pick.

* I watched S George Iloka again.  I wasn’t happy with him the other day, but liked what I saw in this game better.  Generally he was a wrap-up tackler,whether in traffic vs a RB or out in space against a WR.  He did miss two tackles.  One was early on and the other came late and helped to set up the winning TD.  I can see George’s potential due to size (6’4, 222) and speed ( he does run well).  I just haven’t seen him yet do something that catches my eye.  Fascinating player with big potential.

* One guy who absolutely caught my eye was DE Tyrone Crawford.  He is 6’4, 285, but doesn’t move like that.  Very agile guy with excellent feet.  Watch him on the move and you’d swear he was 265.  Did a brilliant job on an option play to his side.  Initially took the pitch man.  Saw the QB keep the ball and cut inside.  Crawford wheeled to the inside and dove for the QB.  He hit him and even knocked the ball loose.  That’s serious quickness and agility for a 285-pound DE.

I don’t think Crawford is a great pass rusher.  Trying to find a spot for him isn’t easy.  Could be the 3-4 DE in a 1-gap scheme would be ideal.  Let him play on the edge, but don’t require him to be a 10-sack guy.  He’s certainly big enough to be a good run defender, but he’s too athletic just to be a point of attack DE.

* One non-Boise note…I was very happy to see Montana MLB Caleb McSurdy get an invitation to the Combine.  McSurdy jumped out at me while watching tape of CB Trumaine Johnson.  McSurdy looks like an NFL prospect.  Goes 6’1, 240.  Runs well.  Good tackler.  Very interesting late round player.