The Scouts Notebook

Dontari Poe
DT
Memphis
6’5, 350 est.

Redshirted back in 2008.  Started half the 2009 season and then all of both 2010 and 2011.  Made the C-USA All Freshman team in 2009.  Honorable mention All C-USA in 2010.  2nd team All C-USA in 2011.  Solid college career.  Finished with 21.5 TFLs (5 sacks), 4 FFs, and 57 solo tackles.

I have watched 2 of his games so far.  Poe is a highly confusing player.  Simply looking at his listed dimensions, you picture someone like Ted Washington.  That couldn’t be further from reality.  Poe isn’t a big, sloppy guy that plays NT and eats up blocks.  He’s nothing like Terrence Cody, who ruled the middle for Alabama a couple of years back.

Poe is truly a dancing bear.  He is huge, but carries it very well.  I’m curious if the 350 is right.  He just doesn’t look near that big.  He also doesn’t play like that.  Poe is a good athlete.  He used a spin move in the Mississippi State game that a speed rusher would have been proud of.  Heck, Michael Jackson would have liked that.  Against Marshall I saw him dropping back on zone blitzes and he looked okay in coverage.  On one play he hugged up against a receiver on a crossing route.  I’ve seen LBs that struggle to do that, college and pro.  You really get blown away by his combination of size and agility.

The downside is that he’s a big guy who doesn’t always play like it.  He’s single-blocked way too often for a guy with his size/power.  Poe should be tossing blockers around like rag dolls.  He’s more interested in using his quickness and agility to beat blockers.  Poe needs a tough DL coach to ride him until he starts playing up to his size.  Poe played both NT and under tackle at Memphis.  He has a good motor.  He’ll chase plays.  He runs well for a guy his size.  I wonder if a 3-4 team will try him at DE.  Poe might be more natural at that spot.

I’m sure everyone will try and turn him into a run-stuffing NT.  Poe can do that, but he’s got to become a more physical player.  Right now he comes across as a bit of a gentle giant.  If he’ll take the advice of Josey Wales and “get mean, plum mad dog mean”, Poe could be a dominant NFL player.  His size/agility combo is freakishly rare.  You just don’t see guys his size move like that.

So what is his draft value?  Based on game tape…2nd round, maybe.  Based on potential, he should go 1st or 2nd overall.  How do you balance out those two sides and come up with a good answer?  I’d guess he’ll go somewhere in the 20-40 range.  If a coach falls in love with Poe, maybe he goes a bit before that, but I’m not so sure that will happen.  He is a project.  His potential is sky high, but he’ll need work before you can count on him in the lineup.  I have no idea how coachable he is.  If Poe buys into what he’s taught, he could adapt quickly.  There are no guarantees.

I do think Poe will surprise some people with how good he looks at the Combine.  That’s where DL coaches and Defensive Coordinators are going to start drooling.  The game tape is okay, but won’t match what they see in Indy.

* DT Jared Crick is a guy that I haven’t talked about in a while.  He suffered a concussion early in the year and then missed a game.  He came back and injured his shoulder, causing him to miss the rest of the year.  I watched him play a bit, but wasn’t impressed.  I recently went back and re-watched tape from early this year as well as 2010.  I’ve changed my mind.

Crick is a high quality DT.  He mainly played 2-gap at Nebraska, but is athletic enough that he still managed 20 career sacks.  Generally DTs have a lot of TFLs, but their sack total isn’t all that great.  Crick “only” had 29.5 TFLs because he wasn’t penetrating.  He was engaging his blocker and reading the play.  He did a pretty good job of that for a guy who is 6’5, 285.  That’s a 1-gap build.  And I think if you put him in a 1-gap system in the NFL he can light it up.

Crick is quick off the ball.  He is a really good athlete.  I think his most interesting quality is closing speed.  He gets into the backfield and is able to get to the QB.  Think about a guy like Jerel Worthy.  He is explosive off the ball, but isn’t special beyond that initial burst.  He had 12 sacks in 40 games while playing in an attacking 1-gap system.  Crick also played just 40 games and had almost double that.

Crick has a great motor.  He will chase the ball relentelessy around the field.  Here is a great moment from Crick’s short 2011 season that shows his hustle and finishing ability.

I see him as probably going in the 2nd round, but that will largely be determined by the doctors who check out his shoulder.  That’s a crucial part for a DT.  Any long term concerns will hurt him.  Hopefully he’ll get a good review at the Combine and it won’t affect his value.

* DT Fletcher Cox of Mississippi is another guy that has really grown on me recently.  He is a junior and might not be greatly known by casual fans, but he is a terrific player.  You put on the tape to watch him and it’s a game of Where’s Waldo.  He played DT and DE.  He lined up left, right, and anywhere in-between.  Miss State runs a creative defensive scheme.

Cox lists at 6’4, 295.  He is quick off the ball.  Very good athlete.  Looks natural playing at DE.  Some bigger guys get in space and look stiff/awkward.  Cox is an agile athlete.  He bends and turns like a smaller guy.  Plays with good pad level.  Pretty good motor.  Productive.  Had 14.5 TFLs (5 sacks) this year.  Also blocked a couple of kicks.  His blocked FG vs Wake Forest in the bowl game was a thing of beauty.  Just exploded off the ball and into the backfield.

I’ve been thinking Cox was a 2nd round pick, but he might just end up as a 1st rounder.  I think he’ll post good numbers at the Combine.  He is tailor made for the under tackle spot in the 4-3, but 3-4 teams will love him as a DE also.

* LB Keenan Robinson is such a tease.  He’s 6’3, 240.  Great frame for a SAM.  Good athlete.  At times he can be a tough, physical player.  Put on the Oklahoma game from 2010 and you see a Top 50 guy.  He finished that game with 19 tackles and 1.5 TFLs.  He was shoving OL around.  Made plays all over the field.  Fought off blockers on inside runs.  Stud.  Other games, he’s not as fired up and is more inconsistent.

K-Rob has the potential to be really good.  He had a good week at the Senior Bowl and was tough in the practices.  He set the edge well on runs.  He showed good pass rush skills.  He made coverage plays.  If you’re getting that guy, he’s worth a 2nd round pick.  The problem is that you might not get that guy.  That will likely drop him into the 3rd round. Could turn out to be a major steal or a highly frustrating tease.

* MLB James-Michael Johnson is a player that has definitely grown on me.  He’s 6’1, 249 and has a muscular build.  I thought he showed good athletic ability at the Senior Bowl.  Guys with that build tend to be just inside run stuffers, but that’s not the case with him.  JMJ has good speed and range.  He’s not a 4.5 guy, but runs well for his size.  Pretty good athlete.  Not a fluid player.  Springy is the word that comes to mind.

I love the fact he stays square to the LOS.  His head is always focused on the backfield (except when he’s dropping back).  He flows to the ball.  He’s always in position to make tackles because of staying square.  There was a great moment in the bowl game vs Southern Miss.  They ran an end around.  JMJ started with the initial flow, but stayed under control and read the play.  When he saw the WR get the ball, JMJ flew upfield for a big TFL.  Awareness.  Burst.  Good tackle.

Will appeal to both 3-4 and 4-3 teams.  3rd round area.  Maybe a strong Combine pushes that up.

* Everyone at the Senior Bowl was blown away by Safety George Iloka‘s build.  He’s 6’3 1/2 and 222 pounds.  He’s got a huge wingspan and giant hands.  He passes the eye test with flying colors and then some.  He was okay down there, but didn’t blow me away.

I’ve since watched some tape and have to tell you that I’m not impressed.  Very sloppy tackler.  Doesn’t look like a natural Safety.  Love his body and raw potential, but Safety is a position where specific skills are required.  That’s not a spot to force in an athlete and hope it works.  Major project in my eyes.  Will likely be over-drafted on potential.

by Dan Klausner

Demario Davis
OLB
Arkansas State
6016, 235

Three-year starter. Played in 48 of 49 possible games. No major injuries. Three-time All-Sun Belt selection.  Finished his career with 7 sacks, 4 INTs, 22.5 TFLs, 5 FFs, and 229 total tackles.    Continue reading →

1. Indianapolis – Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

Irsay has made it pretty clear that Peyton Manning is out of Indy and that a quarterback will be taken with the first overall pick. As exciting a player as RGIII is, I’d have to think that will be Luck.

2. St. Louis – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

Quit looking at your monitor with that weird look on your face…

I realize that the Rams need a left tackle and a wide receiver, but they need a corner just as bad and Claiborne may be the best I’ve seen in years. They’ve spent top picks on linemen and with Fisher in town; it’s time to go defense. While he normally doesn’t go for the high pick DB, he has used 1^st rounders at the position quite a few times.

3. Minnesota – Matt Kalil, OT USC

The Vikings could really benefit from a LT, RGIII or Justin Blackmon here.

4. Cleveland – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

I’m a Colt McCoy fan, but he simply hasn’t shown the raw ability of Robert Griffin. If the Browns ever want to get to the next level in the AFC North they’re going to need a top-flight QB. Having one that can escape a pass rush won’t hurt.

5. Tampa Bay – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

My first thought here was Justin Blackmon and then I remembered; Greg Schiano is the new sheriff in town. Greg was always looking for that stud tailback at Rutgers and did best when he had a great running game. LaGarrette Blount does some things well, but Richardson is the closest talent to Adrian Peterson I’ve seen.

6. Washington – Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State

For the record, I originally had Blackmon going to Tampa Bay and still had the Redskins passing on Richardson. Your No. 6 selection would have been Kendall Wright from Baylor.

I’m sure that sounds crazy to you, but there’s a buzz on him and Shanahan loves that skill set.

7. Jacksonville – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

Again, it might seem high for Wright, but there’s a buzz that some teams have him above Blackmon. The Jags have got to get a playmaker on the outside and they’ve shown in past drafts that if they see their guy; they’ll take him.

8. Miami – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

Miami has left tackle taken care of; however they are hurting on the other side of the line.

9. Carolina – Michael Brockers, DT LSU

Brockers isn’t a player I’m completely comfortable with yet, however that doesn’t really matter.

He is a highly athletic two-gap defensive tackle and the Panthers are in great need of a future starter at the position. Last year they spent two 3^rd rounders on the position and Terrell McClain has been a huge disappointment. Brockers would have time to develop and move into a full-time role.

10. Buffalo – Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE Alabama

Courtney is a guy that could give the Bills some much-needed pass rush off the edge as they transition from the 3-4 to the 4-3 and eventually put his hand on the ground full-time.

11. Kansas City – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

Kansas City could go guard or tackle here.

12. Seattle – Quinton Coples, DE UNC

Chris Clemons has been great on the right side for the Seahawks, but they really don’t have a great pass rusher on the other side. Even with free agents brought back, they’ll need to upgrade talent at LE and Coples would certainly do that in theory.

13. Arizona – Luke Kuechly, MLB Boston College

Arizona isn’t a fan of Stewart Bradley. Some may say this is a reach for Luke Kuechly, but his numbers tell a different story.

14. Dallas – David DeCastro, OG Stanford

If Dallas doesn’t sign their free agent guards, they’ll be left with Kyle Kosier (33 years old) and two rookies; one of which spent half of last season on IR in Bill Nagy. DeCastro would be a huge improvement.

15. Philadelphia – Devon Still, DT Penn State

Melvin Ingram and Zach Brown may be of interest at this spot too based on need and talent. Depending on the futures of DeSean Jackson and Evan Mathis; the Eagles could also look at Mike Adams or Michael Floyd.

One option however would be to go with Still at DT. This would allow them to let Trevor Laws go in free agency and hopefully bring back Derek Landri as their fourth man in.

This would not be an ideal spot for the Eagles and I’d expect them to move up with extra picks in later rounds.

16. N.Y. Jets – Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

As tempting as a pass rusher like Nick Perry or Whitney Mercilus would have to be here; I can’t imagine the Jets will bring back Santonio Holmes or Plaxico Burress. Their receiving corps is horrible.

17. Cincinnati (f/Oak) – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

Dre recently had a run-in with the law, but it was his first and he is a very talented corner. The Bengals are really in a jam at the position as just about everyone is a free agent and Leon Hall will miss all of 2013.

18. San Diego – Whitney Mercilus, OLB Illinois

The Chargers need to start generating a pass rush off the edge again and Mercilus is a great athlete.

19. Chicago – Mike Adams, OT Ohio State

Chicago has had consistent problems at left tackle and Adams had a solid season followed by a very good showing at the Senior Bowl. They could also look at a corner here, but Adams is the best value.

20. Tennessee – Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina

Jason Jones will be a prize in the free agent market and the only member of their four-deep signed to a contract is Derrick Morgan at defensive end. Ingram can put his hand on the ground on the left side and give the Titans a nice pass rush while controlling the edge.

21. Cincinnati – Cordy Glenn, OG Georgia

While Glenn played LT at Georgia and may be able to play RT in the NFL, I see him translating best on the inside at guard. Cincinnati has been very happy with Bobbie Williams over the years, but he is a free agent, he’s old and injuries and suspensions are against him.

Glenn could be the answer to the problems they have had with their running game. A running back is possible, however I just don’t see the value there right now.

22. Cleveland (f/Atl) – Nick Perry, DE USC

The Browns are in need of a pass rusher and Perry has been an effective on over the past three seasons for the Trojans.

Cornerback and wide receiver would certainly be two other ways to look here.

23. Detroit – Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama

Janoris has certainly had his issues off the field. That said, he’s an extremely talented defensive back and the Lions secondary is absolutely horrible.

The Lions have been looking into the North Alabama prospect and if he’s available, he could be the man here.

24. Pittsburgh – Dont’a Hightower, ILB Alabama

With all of the issues Pittsburgh has on their offensive line, inside linebacker probably makes no sense to people. Max Starks has a torn ACL and Chris Kemoeatu played poorly this season. They also have four other guards who are free agents or RFAs.

That said you can get good guards later in the draft. You can’t get Dont’a Hightower later in the draft. James Farrior is 37 and Larry Foote will be 32 this season. It’s about sticking to your draft board.

25. Denver – Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State

Apparently getting to the quarterback is not a priority for the defensive tackles in Denver. It’s definitely a priority of Jerel Worthy’s.

26. Houston – Mohamed Sanu, WR Rutgers

Getting another player across from Andre Johnson who isn’t simply one dimensional would be huge for Houston. Mo is not only a very talented receiver, but he is a solid return man and is used for trickery.

Most importantly, he’s a tough guy. Courtland Finnegan won’t be intimidating Sanu. The Rutgers product will take a hit and smile at you like you brushed dust off his jersey. The Texans need that to take away the focus on Andre.

27. New England (f/NO) – Vinny Curry, DE/OLB Marshall

Curry impressed his senior season and then did a great job at the Senior Bowl according to just about every person I’ve read. He was said to be “the most impressive “tweener” there by one scout and opened eyes. Curry did look very good.

The Patriots have been running more of a four-man front, but that’s because they don’t have that outside linebacker to get back to their 3-4 roots. Curry can put his hand on the ground for now and stand up and learn the position. He allows them to be flexible and get back to what they do best.

28. Green Bay – Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State

Green Bay needs to get better play out of their defensive ends and Fletcher Cox can line up in the five-tech in a 3-4 and be effective.

29. Baltimore – Peter Konz, C Wisconsin

Matt Birk is retiring and while the Ravens brought in Andre Gurode from the Cowboys, he’s an unrestricted free agent. Baltimore can pick up a veteran center for a year while Konz gets accustom to the system or plug and play him.

30. San Francisco – Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin

San Francisco had some issues on their offensive line this year with Adam Snyder and Anthony Davis. Snyder is a free agent and the word is that the Niners won’t be retaining his services. Davis is too young to give up on.

While many may look to a player like Alshon Jeffery here, my thoughts are that San Francisco would prefer more of a field stretcher on the outside to open up their running game.

31. N.Y. Giants – Dwayne Allen, TE Clemson

The Giants have done well with guys like Kevin Boss, Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum over the past few years; but they were most dominant when they had a true playmaker in Jeremy Shockey at tight end.

Allen not only has the ability to become a very good NFL tight end, but he is also possibly the best player available at this pick.

32. New England – Mark Barron, SS Alabama

At one point the Patriots looked at least solid at safety with Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Patrick Chung and a solid backup in Brandon McGowan, but they’re gasping for breath now.

Chung is at the free safety spot and there is seemingly no one with talent on the other side from him. The Patriots had a ridiculously awful pass defense and adding a quality SEC safety to the mix could go a long way to helping them. They can add a corner with later picks and through free agency as well.   

Back in 2009 when I worked at Scout.com all analysts were asked to put together their Top 25 and when I was looking through my football notes tonight for something; I stumbled across it. I opened it up remembering the year, the players and just how long I sat there watching some of the nation’s best and it’s hilarious to look back now that some of these kids will be in this year’s draft class.

This isn’t a high school recruiting site, so I know many or most of you don’t follow it. Football and basketball are a bit different if you’re looking for reference. You can always look back at a “Top 10” high school list for basketball and 9 times out of 10; those guys are in the NBA.

It’s much different with high school football, so don’t expect that type of accuracy no matter if it’s yours truly or super scouts like Randy Rodgers in Texas that schools flock to for information. There are even recruiting sites out there that have great experts like Brandon Huffman who can’t get it right all the time. The point is; if you’re a basketball person, understand LeBron James is kind of easy to project.

Onto the list and some big misses that make me laugh.

I can remember thinking that there was no way Aaron Murray would amount to anything at Georgia. Good call on that one idiot. Murray has been outstanding for the Dawgs. I loved his arm, but he looked like he was about 5-foot-10 at best.

You’re probably wondering who the heck Logan Heastie is and what he’s doing above Rueben Randle who will be picked this year. Well, Logan changed his name to Justin Blackmon! Ha! I promise the kid was an absolute stud in high school. Any Mountaineer fan will get my back here.

Dre Kirkpatrick is my saving grace thankfully. I stuck to my guns there. Unfortunately I stuck to my guns on those two other opinions, so maybe that’s not so good. Anyway, even with Dre driving around with enough cheebah for Snoop to party with recently I thought it would be funny just to share.

I have no idea how some of these other kids have fair. I added their colleges next to the names – or at least their original colleges. Some have transferred by now I’m sure. The top 100’s are probably still searchable on sites like Rivals, Scout, ESPN and 247 (not sure if they were around yet).

Enjoy.

1. Xavier Nixon, OT – Florida

2. Matt Barkley, QB – USC

3. Bryce Brown, RB – Tennessee

4. Manti Te’o, LB – Notre Dame

5. JaMarkus McFarland, DT – Oklahoma

6. Jacobbi McDaniel, DT – Florida State

7. Eric Shrive, OT – Penn State

8. Jelani Jenkins, LB – Florida

9. Trent Richardson, RB – Alabama

10. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB – Alabama

11. Russell Shepard, QB – LSU

12. Craig Loston, S – LSU

13. Gary Brown, DT – Florida

14. Sheldon Richardson, DT – Missouri

15. Donte Paige-Moss, DE – North Carolina

16. Dorian Bell, LB – Ohio State

17. Vontaze Burfict, LB – Arizona State

18. Tajh Boyd, QB – Clemson

19. Alex Okafor, DE – Texas

20. Logan Heastie, WR – WVU

21. Tavon Austin, RB – WVU

22. Rueben Randle, WR – LSU

23. Gabe Lynn, CB – Oklahoma

24. TJ McDonald, S – USC

25. Melvin Fellows, DE – Ohio State

The full review is still coming. For now, here are some initial thoughts on the game.

NORTH

OT Mike Adams — The best LT in the game. Handled multiple rushers and did well against all of them. Top Senior OT in the draft. Could be a Top 20 pick.

DE Vinny Curry — Followed up a good week of practice with a good game – 2 sacks and a pass deflection. Looked explosive off the edge at times. Also got pressure on Weeden on his INT in the 1st quarter.

RB Isaiah Pead — Really stood out as a PR. Was quick, fast, and elusive. Teams looking for a runner and returner will love what they saw from Pead. Had a pair of long PRs in the game. Best run went for 18 yards. Showed the ability to make defenders miss, a critical skill for NFL RBs.

DT Alameda Ta’Amu — Man vs boys. Ta’Amu was physically dominant for a lot of the game. Just overpowered guys. Read a screen pass and made the play on that. Had 2 TFLs. On one, he was able to get 240-pound RB Terrance Ganaway on the ground by only grabbing a handful of jersey and slinging him backward. Strength. Very good showing. Didn’t always stand out when I watched game tape this year. I need to go back and re-watch the games to see if I missed something or if he simply turned it up a notch for the Senior Bowl. 3-4 teams had to love what they saw from him.      Continue reading →

by Gimpy  (follow him on Twitter @NFLGimpy)

You don’t get the Super Bowl you want, you get the Super Bowl you deserve. Isn’t that what they said at the end of The Dark Knight? Something like that. Anyways, this is not the Super Bowl most fans wanted. Obviously fans always want to see their team, but for most, the thought of Tom Brady and the Patriots possibly winning their 4^th Super Bowl in a decade is tough to stomach. That’s not to say the Giants are a fan favorite. Their players run their mouths too much, their fans are so whiny they become youtube and Tosh.0 sensations (just google crying Giants fan if you don’t know what I’m referencing), and Eli Manning just has a face you can’t help but hate.

We should be thankful that we even have a Super Bowl. We deserve a Super Bowl after the lockout, but after the vitriol thrown at players and owners by fans, we’ve gotta take what we can get after all the “millionaires vs. billionaires” garbage. While I never thought the NFL would miss any time, it was certainly on the table during the strike or decertification or whatever the heck you want to call it. I want to explore a little bit of why the Patriots and Giants are facing off . I’ll make a few observations, predictions, and finally I’ll pick a winner. All of those things will likely be half correct at best given how much I hate both teams so bias is inevitable.

I’ll start off with a few things that each team has in common, other than the obvious like elite QBs and blatant luck (I’m still trying to figure out why John Harbaugh or anyone on the Ravens didn’t call a timeout and how bad Tony Romo can be). First is flexible coaching. Obviously Belichea…er Belichick is a coach known for working with his personnel. The first 2 Patriots Super Bowl teams looked nothing like the 2004 squad and even less like the 2007 squad. This team looks nothing like the previous ones either.

The Patriots, a traditional 3-4 team, mostly ran a 4-3 this season because the personnel dictated it. Offensive tweaks are very common based off of skill players. You rarely see a team switch from 3-4 to 4-3 or vice versa without a big coaching change and/or shakeup. With Belichick at the helm, they switched. The results weren’t pretty in the regular season but have gotten better in the playoffs. The Patriots were next to last in total yards allowed(411 per game), passing yards(293 per game), and a mediocre 17^th in rushing yards(117 per game). They were middle of the road at 15th in points allowed (21.4 per game).

The playoffs have been a complete 180 degree turn (360 if you’re Yogi Berra). While the sample size is small (2 games) and the opposition less than impressive on offense (Broncos and Ravens), the results are a lot different. They held both opponents under their season average for points allowed, held the Ravens RBs to 89 yards on 27 carries (3.3 ypc, a great average for a defense), and completely shut down a Broncos offense that beat the best defense in the NFL in 2011. The defense was a vital component of both wins, something that can’t be said for a majority of the regular season. The flexibility of Belichick and the defensive assistants is paying off at the right time. If their personnel was this bad with a 4-3 during the regular season, it would have been even worse with a 3-4. That’s a coaching staff willing to do what it takes. I don’t even need to talk about their use of 2 great receiving TEs and how different that is.

The surprising thing is the flexibility of Tom Coughlin and the Giants. Coughlin has a reputation (well deserved at that) of running a tight ship. He follows the old “if you aren’t 5 minutes early you’re 10 minutes late” style. That’s not to say he let up on things like that, it’s just an example to show you how he views the world. An “old school” coach like Coughlin showed a lot of flexibility to accommodate a lot of difficult factors. His work with OC Kevin Gilbride, one of the best unknown coordinators in the business, saved their season.

Allow me to throw a few stats at you. I’m going to use 2006-present as my same size for all of these because I want to show you what they were from the year before their Super Bowl to present. The main difference is the Giants offense. In the past, the Giants were a top 10 rushing team pretty consistently (using yards per game). From 2006-2010 they were 7^th, 4^th (Super Bowl year), 1^st, 17^th, and 6^th. This year? Dead last. 32^nd out of 32 NFL teams. I know Ahmad Bradshaw was banged up all year, but that’s shocking. They were worse than the Packers who didn’t even try to run the ball most games. They were worse than the Lions who had to sign a guy off the street to start for about half the season.

Then you look at their passing game. I’ll show you the same years, 2006-10 compared to the current year using yards per game. Starting in 2006 they were 19^th, 21^st, 18^th, 11^th, 10^th, and finally 5^th this year. While they were top 11 in 2009 and 2010, it’s important to note that the yards per game went up by 53 yards from 2010 to 2011. Eli’s yards per attempt were half a yard higher than his previous career high. He had 60 more attempts this season as well. He tied his best touchdown: interception ratio at +13.

Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride’s ability to change a run heavy offense to a passing one that was top 5 in the year of the QB (countless records broken) is the change that allowed the Giants to make up for the worst rushing attack in the NFL. If you had told Tom Coughlin during the preseason that the Giants would have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, his first thought wouldn’t have been “Super Bowl!” it would have been “I wonder if I’ll be coaching in 2012.” Incredible adjustments by him, Kevin Gilbride and the rest of the offensive assistants. I know I was surprised when I saw the Giants were 5^th in passing yards. Obviously Brees, Brady, and Rodgers had great seasons, but to see Eli up there as well impressed me.

The next thing they have in common is opportunistic play. There’s always luck involved with a Super Bowl run. You have to take advantage of that luck, whether it’s good luck for yourself or bad luck for your opponent. The Giants did not look like a playoff team after week 13. Sure, they gave the Packers a close game, but they were 6-6 and had 4 straight losses. They also had 2 upcoming games against the Cowboys, their opponent for the division, in the last 4 weeks. There’s your luck: the schedule makers gave you a way to close out the season and control your own destiny despite a .500 record. The Giants responded with 3 wins in their last 4, including 2 wins over the Cowboys to clinch the division. Good teams win when they need to win. It sounds overly simplistic, but when faced with a do or die scenario, the Giants stepped up where countless teams have faltered in the past.

The Patriots had a different kind of opportunistic play. Most of my readers already know this, but the Patriots did not beat a single team with a winning record until they beat the Ravens. They beat numerous 8-8 teams (Broncos, Eagles, Chargers, Jets, Raiders, Cowboys) but no one with a winning record. They were opportunistic because when handed mediocre teams, they beat mediocre teams. Their only loss to a team with a losing record was the Bills when they looked like the best team in the AFC. Reality hit the Bills hard, but they were playing great early in the season. You can’t control who your opponents are in the NFL, all you can do is beat them. It’s important to note that the Patriots are the only team in the NFL that really don’t have a bad loss, a loss to a team they had no business losing to. Other than the Bills, they lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh and their upcoming Super Bowl opponent. With 7 losses, obviously the Giants lost a few they shouldn’t have, namely the Redskins late in the season. The Ravens, the Patriots’ opponent in the AFC Championship game, lost to the Jaguars. I don’t know the tie breakers, but if the Ravens had won that game, they would have had the exact same record as the Patriots and may have had home field advantage. Do the Patriots win that game in Baltimore? It’s interesting to consider.

When you beat the teams you need to beat, you put yourself in the position the Patriots are in. No bad losses plus beat the mediocre teams=home field advantage. Let’s get to some predictions on key battles.

Patriots secondary vs. Giants WRs

This matchup on paper gives the Giants a huuuge edge. Nicks and Cruz are physical, have strong hands, and won’t hesitate to beat up a New England secondary that has struggled a lot this past season. This is one of those scenarios where paper meets reality. The only things that will stop the Giants WRs are drops and a bad day from Eli.

Giants DL vs. Patriots OL

This one is a bit more intriguing. The Giants thrive on a front 4 that can rush the passer. The Patriots have an underrated OL. They tend to step up their game when necessary. I think the Giants will get pressure on Brady, but not enough to rattle him like they did earlier in the season. I think Brady is more determined to win this Super Bowl than he was during the 2007 season.

Patriots TEs vs.Giants LBs and Safeties

The Patriots TEs (Gronkowski and Hernandez) set opposing defenses on fire. Gronk had a record setting season and Hernandez had a better season than most #1 TEs did. LBs and Safeties are easily the weak link on the Giants defense. They don’t have anyone that can match up with Gronk and Hernandez. The good news for the Giants is that Gronk has a high ankle sprain and will not be 100%. If he’s limited as a runner, this would be a huge life saver for the Giants. They should be able to handle Hernandez with some solid schemes and execution. If Gronk is limited, I think the Giants “win” this matchup. When I say “win” I mean “not completely dominated.” If Gronk is at 80-90% and capable of running routes, the Giants will be their next victim if Brady has a clean pocket.

Eli vs. Brady

This is the matchup everyone cares about. Brady’s magazine cover looks vs. Eli’s goofy “Peyton’s younger brother that probably got beat up too many times by big brother” look. Eli has been great all 3 playoff games (8 touchdowns, 1 interception, over 300 yards per game) and Brady hasn’t (2 interceptions vs. Baltimore). I give the edge to Brady for 1 reason and 1 reason only: I think he wants it more. Brady has to see that his window is closing. He looks at his career long rival Peyton Manning and has to realize he’s closer to the end than the beginning. There’s also the loss of Myra Kraft, wife of Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft, earlier this season. I just have to think Brady is winning this one for the Kraft family and to show the world he’s still the best. That leads me to my prediction.

Patriots: 34
Giants 24

Brady wins another Super Bowl MVP and joins only Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana with 4 Lombardis. He also joins John Elway as the only QBs with 5 Super Bowl appearances. He’ll also join all 3 of them in Canton.

It’s kind of difficult to do Overpaid/Underpaid player of the week when the only game was the Pro Bowl. The sane Pro Bowl in which every single player deserves an “Overpaid” award because even $25k for the losers is a drastic overpayment for what they put on the field. There wasn’t a sack until the 4^th quarter because the DL didn’t even try to rush the passer. I don’t understand why they play the game. With players rightfully intent on not getting hurt, why play the game? I’d much rather watch an accuracy competition between the QBs to see who can hit a ring 60 yards downfield or a bench press competition between the linemen. Let them actually compete in things that likely won’t hurt them.

Remember to be safe on Super Bowl Sunday. I don’t have too many readers yet so I’d like to keep the ones I have. I’ve never been one to turn down alcohol, just make sure you don’t drink and drive. Drink and walk, drink and ride the bus, drink and hitchhike with that overly friendly guy in a white cargo van, just don’t drink and drive. Ok, maybe you should avoid the white cargo van.

Vontaze Burfict
ILB
Arizona State
6’3, 250 (est.)

Junior. 3-year starter (32 of 37 career games). Finished his career with 134 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 22.5 TFLs, and 4 Forced Fumbles. Had 1 INT, which came in his Junior season.

Watch this highlight video and you see an impact LB that has dominant potential.

Burfict was a preseason All American in 2011. Expectations were sky high. This was to be the season he finally put it all together. Unfortunately, you know what happens to the best laid plans of mice and men. Burfict sucker-punched a teammate (WR) in the locker room after having an on-field altercation in training camp. That got him into hot water.

Teammate Brandon Magee (LB) tore his Achilles and missed the season. This hurt because, per Tony Pauline, Magee was the one who got Burfict lined up correctly on a lot of plays.

Burfict had pledged to cut down on reckless penalties in 2011. He tried to play more under control initially, but it seemed to affect his overall game and he stopped it by midseason. He had 2 dumb penalties in the Oregon game. Things went downhill as ASU’s season fell apart. They lost the final 4 regular season games and their bowl game. Things didn’t end well. Burfict had a pair of penalties in the season finale vs Cal. He was benched. The coaches asked him to go back in the game at a certain point and he refused. Burfict then only played in parts of the bowl game, failing to even record a solo tackle.

Coach Dennis Erickson stood up for Burfict as much as he could this year (part of the problem). Defensive coordinator Craig Bray was critical of Burfict. He hated the undisciplined play and Burfict’s approach to the game. His work habits never matched his talent. Danny White played for ASU back in the 1970s and was later an NFL QB. He remains close to the program and had this to say about Burfict:

When your best football player is a guy like that, he’s what I call a coach killer. He’s such a great athlete, you have to have him on the field. But by the same token, the negatives outweigh the positives with him. As great a player as he is, you can’t have that. And then what happens, when if you don’t take extreme measures with it, then it becomes a cancer on the team. And I started seeing other guys on the defense starting to act like that and I think it became infectious.

Burfict is a talented football player. He is a good athlete. He generally is a good tackler. He’s got the strength to physically overwhelm just about anyone. He covers a lot of ground for a guy his size. Burfict can be an impact hitter. He looks the part of an pro MLB. It took Ray Lewis years to develop a body type that Burfict has in college.

There is a downside as well. Burfict doesn’t diagnose plays well. Lacks the instincts you want in a MLB.  He doesn’t use his hands to keep blockers off him. He struggles to disengage when blockers do get on him. Doesn’t show particularly good cover skills. Primarily a run stuffer. Not exactly a tackling machine. Never had more than 7 solo tackles in a game at ASU. More of a N-S player than sideline to sideline. Will fit a scheme that lets him attack the LOS, but isn’t as effective when moving laterally to flow to the ball. Undisciplined player who will get penalties and lets his emotions affect his play too much. MLB is supposed to be the leader of the defense and that’s not Burfict at all.

Watch these two games. You will see a handful of nice plays, but Burfict hardly looks like a special player.

vs Oregon – 2011
vs USC – 2011

Burfict has explosive potential and will make athletic plays that blow you (and the QB/RB) away. The problem is that he can’t do the routine. How valuable is a bone jarring hit if it is coupled with 20 plays where Burfict is either stuck on blocks or out of position?

Add in the fact that he’s got significant character and coachability issues. What is Burfict’s value? There is no way he’s worth a 1st round pick. I wouldn’t spend a 2nd round pick on him. After that, I would only take Burfict if I had a veteran LB who Burfict would listen to as well as a high quality defensive coordinator who had the experience and presence to deal with a fiery young player like him.

Tremendous potential, but a player that is a definite risk.  Must be in the right situation to succeed and even then, there are no guarantees.  Underachieved in college when he was more talented than most of the guys he faced.  Is he going to be better in the NFL when facing elite competition?  Is he going to suddenly develop strong work habits as a millionaire?  Doesn’t seem likely.

10 Who Impressed

DE/LB Melvin Ingram
OL Cordy Glenn
WR Marvin Jones
QB Brandon Weeden
WR Joe Adams
DE Cam Johnson
OL Tony Bergstrom
CB Dwight Bentley
DE Vinny Curry
LB Demario Davis

10 Who Didn’t

DE Jack Crawford
OC William Vlachos
QB Kellen Moore
WR Brian Quick
WR Jeff Fuller
DT Billy Winn
QB Ryan Lindley
OT Zebrie Sanders
OT Matt McCants
CB Alfonzo Dennard

More Tape Study Needed

S George Iloka
OT Mike Adams
LB Keenan Robinson
RB Lennon Creer

If I was putting together a team from the Senior Bowl players to go challenge an NFL squad…

WR Joe Adams
WR Dwight Jones
WR Marvin Jones (slot)
TE Michael Egnew
RB Doug Martin
QB Brandon Weeden
LT Mike Adams
LG Jeff Allen
OC Mike Brewster
RG Cordy Glenn
RT Kelechi Osemele

DE Melvin Ingram
DT Derek Wolfe
NT Brandon Thompson
DE Quinton Coples
WB Lavonte David
MB James-Michael Johnson
SB Zach Brown
S Antonio Allen
S George Iloka
CB Brandon Boykin
CB Janoris Jenkins

Game is Important For These Guys

LB Zach Brown — He had a terrific week in coverage, but the question coming in was his tackling. He needs to play the run well.

LB Lavonte David — Worked with coaches on shedding blocks this week. Now he gets a chance to show what he learned. Good cover guy and tackler. Just needs to show he can deal with big OL.

LB Audie Cole — Limited athlete needs to come up big on game day.

RB Chris Polk — One of my favorite runners in all of CFB, but he failed to shine this week. Polk is at his best in a game, where he is very hard to tackle and can be a punishing runner. Looked soft in Mobile, but that was practice. A strong game will ease any concerns.

QB Russell Wilson — He’s just under 5’11 and that is always going to be the headline unless he changes that with some big plays. Had a solid week, but wasn’t so good that he blew you away. A strong game could really help him.

OL — The 1-on-1 drills are set up for DL to win. The OL suffer all week long. Game time is different. The OL now have a chance to get revenge and kick some butt. I’m sure a few guys are looking to redeem themselves.

Finally done.

DL

Malik Jackson — The Tennessee star was a late add to the game. Played both DE and DT. Had some success at both spots. Really got the best of Matt McCants a couple of times. That’d be great, but McCants was struggling with everyone. Also beat Will Blackwell a couple of times in a DT/G matchup. That was more impressive since Will did some good things in Mobile. Jackson seems more comfortable at DE, but I think most teams will have interest in him on the inside.

Melvin Ingram — I’ve talked about his terrific athletic ability, but you also have to appreciate his power. Used a bull rush on Cordy Glenn and moved him back a couple of steps. Beat Zebrie Sanders with an inside move and then beat McCants off the edge. Ingram had a great trio of practices. Really impressive guy. Shined at DE and 3-4 OLB, where some teams might covet him.

Jake Bequette — Still worked out with the LBs, but I’m listing him as a DL since that’s where I think his future is. Good effort in coverage, but still raw and awkward. Ate up RBs in the pass rush drill. You could see Jake’s pass rushing skills there. Very good swim move.

Kheeston Randall — Watch the individual movement drills and you see an athletic DT that is pretty impressive. Then watch him go against blockers and he’s less impressive. Never noticed him in 9-on-7 stuff or team drills. Talented player, but also frustrating.

Quinton Coples — Once again had his best success with inside moves. That just bugs me. Really looks the part, but I don’t see a guy who is a force off the edge. Tons of talent. Huge potential. Maybe he’ll turn it on in the game.

Brandon Thompson — Solid day. Beat Phillip Blake with a hard inside move. Had a TFL on run play in team session. Able to win with quickness or strength.

LB

Nigel Bradham — Hands like a clock. Literally dropped every ball thrown to him in drills. Doesn’t have great feet. Runs well and has some agility, but I wish he had better feet as an athletic LB.

Keenan Robinson — Very good job in the pass rush drill. Used a swim move very effectively for several rushes. Really battled TEs at the point of attack in team run plays that came to his side. Chased down one run from behind and made the stop. Got sealed on one run that came to his side. Had a good tackle of RB in team session.

Courtney Upshaw — Odd day. In the 1-on-1′s he was coming off the ball slow and just engaging the OL and moving him back a bit. Almost looked lazy. First rep in a team drill and he flew off the edge for a sack. Was he just bored? Dude can play. Very powerful.

Zach Brown — Great hands. Had a couple of drops on the day, but the way he catches the ball is just impressive. Looks like a WR or gifted TE. Natural pass catcher. Had a solid day against the run. Highlight was when he shot a gap and got TFL of RB.

Sean Spence — Good run defender. Made one standout tackle in 9-on-7 drill. Got better at catching the ball as the week rolled on. Still is nothing like Brown. One thing that will bug some LB coaches is that Sean is always moving forward at the snap. Those false steps weren’t a huge deal at Miami or in Mobile, but they can be in the NFL. You must sit tight, read things, and then attack. Drew Rosenhaus is his agent.

DB

Antonio Allen — Probably the best Safety in Mobile. Looked very good in run support. Didn’t lay guys out (you’re not allowed to), but came up quickly and aggressively. Also had some good moments in coverage. Held his own vs Joe Adams on one play. Impressive.

Janoris Jenkins — Odd day. Had some real good plays. Showed really good cover skills. Got into a bad habit of trying to jump routes and that caused him to get burned. That can be coached out. Jenkins didn’t do it all week that I could tell and that wasn’t a problem in the past. Sorta weird. Has definitely impressed.

Dwight Bentley — Solid showing. Very good press corner. Loves to jam and be physical. Able to turn and run with receivers. Ball skills aren’t great, but has good coverage instincts.

Brandon Boykin — Another good day. So athletic. Able to run with anyone. Solid as PR. Note of interest, hung out with his family after practice. I think that’s a good thing. Only concern comes if his parents are meddlers that will bug coaches about playing time and how Brandon is treated. That isn’t a common problem in the NFL, but there are still a handful of crazy moms/dads even at that level.

Ryan Steed — Another good showing. Hasn’t looked small school at all. Had one good PBU on a throw to Criner. Good combination of cover skills and athleticism. Legit prospect.

Markelle Martin — Really want to see him in the game. Flashed a few times. Had good coverage on some underneath passes. Came up quickly vs the run in the team session.

QB

Same as the last couple of days. Weeden looked good. Foles was up and down. Lindley was down. Really struggled with throwing the ball. Not good.

RB

Lenon Creer — Impressive day. Ran hard. They weren’t full tackling, but he still hit the hole hard and busted through arm tackles. Good effort in pass pro drill. Had a couple of very good runs in the team session. Opened some eyes. Late add.

Vick Ballard — Pretty good. Showed some speed as a runner. Good build at 5’9, 217. Good effort in pass pro. Probably didn’t do tons of that at Miss State, but looks like he can be worked with. Still inconsistent as a receiver. Does have potential there.

Terrance Ganaway — Started off awful in pass pro drill. Coaches were livid. Got beaten inside and out. Got bull rushed. Human turnstile. Showed some improvement as the drill went on. That’s important. Shows mental toughness. Some guys check out when they struggle. Ganaway didn’t. Does need a ton of coaching.

WR

Joe Adams — Doesn’t suck. I know I’ve written this before, but the thing I love most is that he’s a speedster that will cross the middle. He’ll catch the ball in traffic. He’ll go up for the ball. Small, but tough. And fast.

Patrick Edwards — Exceptionally quick. Excellent burst. Not sure about his long speed, but he was able to get separation from tight coverage by cutting and bursting. That is NFL stuff. Helped himself by showing that ability. Came up lame at some point and will miss the game.

Juron Criner — Runs good routes. Has very good hands. Looked good all 3 days. Went up over Menzie to make an impressive grab. I love Criner’s ability to locate the ball and adjust. Very good body control. Smart receiver.

OL

Jeff Allen — Played G most of the day. Had a very strong day. Comes off the ball well on run plays where he’s supposed to get to the 2nd level. Good pass pro. Able to lock on and anchor. Ate up Randall and even Ingram in pass pro. Bends his knees and isn’t going backward.

Ben Jones — Played C and G. Got the best of Thompson and Randall in G/DT drills. Not flashy at all, but gets the job done.

Cordy Glenn — Wow. What a difference a couple of days makes. Played G and T. Had a very impressive day. Got the best of Courtney Upshaw a few times. Blocked Coples. Handled most of the guys he faced. Moved his feet better and was punching out with his long arms to keep guys away from his body. Not just a G prospect. Showed serious RT ability. I still wouldn’t trust him vs the Dwight Freeney’s of the world at LT.