The Scouts Notebook

by NFL Gimpy

I had a theory recently so I decided to explore it a little. The theory is that high first round players are going to “bust” at lower rates than they have in the past. I believe this is because the learning curve isn’t anywhere near as steep as it has been in the past as college offenses and defenses become more complex like NFL schemes. Even better, NFL teams are taking ideas from college playbooks. Finally, with the new rookie wage scale, a team doesn’t feel obligated to spend a top 10 pick on a premium position like LT, QB, or a pass rusher. Add all of those things together and it could mean it’s easier to spot players who won’t pan out in the NFL because you’re translating skill a lot less.

To do this, I want to compare the 2007 and 2011 NFL Drafts and what they looked like 2 years later. Obviously this is a small sample size, but you’ll see how drastically different these two classes look. I’ll put the players into 4 categories: Stud, Solid, Questionable, and Bust. I’ll use the top 16 players as my sample size. Keep in mind this is how they looked after 2 seasons because it’s the only fair way to compare them.

2007:

Stud: Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis

Solid: LaRon Landry, Marshawn Lynch, Gaines Adams

Questionable: Lawrence Timmons, Amobi Okoye, Levi Brown, Ted Ginn Jr.

Bust: JaMarcus Russell, Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Justin Harrell

The only debate I can see is I may overrate Gaines Adams (RIP) because he was traded during his 3^rd season to the Bears, but he had back to back 6 sack seasons to start his career. If you would like to argue Adam Carriker wasn’t a bust at that point, I suggest you look at what the Redskins traded for him after his 2^nd season: swapping a few late picks. Timmons was still technically a backup his 2^nd season but has obviously turned himself into a solid or better starter.

2011:

Stud: Von Miller, AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Ryan Kerrigan

Solid: Cam Newton, Mike Pouncey, Marcel Dareus, Nick Fairley, Robert Quinn

Questionable: Jake Locker, Tyron Smith, Christian Ponder

Bust: Blaine Gabbert

I don’t see how anyone can argue with the 7 studs; all of them have already made the Pro Bowl. You could argue Cam Newton and Robert Quinn belong up top (Quinn quietly had a 10.5 sack season for a very underrated defense). Blaine Gabbert is the only player I cannot foresee with a chance to start for the team who drafted him in 2014. Jake Locker has a ton of potential, but I doubt he makes it. Tyron Smith could possibly belong in the Solid category right now and Ponder was the QB of a playoff team.

Only 4 players in the 2011 top 16 may not be considered a solid starter or better during their career. There were 8 players after 2 years in 2007. Adam Carricker did remove the bust label and Lawrence Timmons stepped up big time in year 3. That’s still 6 outright busts in the top 16 and if you look at other drafts that’s not a bad number, it’s about average.

* * * * *

For fun, let’s look at the 2012 draft purely from a stud and solid starter angle. 1 season is way too early to declare a player a bust, but it’s safe to say there are some bona fide studs.

Stud: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, and Luke Kuechly

Solid: Morris Claiborne, Mark Barron, Ryan Tannehill, Fletcher Cox, Stephen Gilmore, Bruce Irvin, and Michael Brockers

See what I mean? 12 of 16 players are safely and confidently listed as starters headed into the 2013 season and all of them give their teams a lot of confidence they’ll be consistent performers. I could probably put Quinton Coples under solid as well, but he’s changing positions and required a little motivation from Rex Ryan to show up to voluntary workouts. That makes me a little hesitant.

Quick Hits

-While digging through the info for this column, I realize that the Rams defense needs its own column. They’ve made some very good decisions on that side of the ball as of late and they’re going to need a dominant defense if they want to keep up with the Seahawks and 49ers.

-Tough break for the Chargers and Melvin Ingram. Ingram has an ACL tear and his availability for the 2013 season is in doubt. This led the Chargers to sign Dwight Freeney to fill the pass rushing void.

-If Josh Freeman leaves the Bucs after this season and he goes to a team with good QB coaching I firmly believe he can regain his form from 2 years ago. In 2010 Freeman had 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. Cleveland could be a great spot if they move on from Brandon Weeden.

-The PFT “saga” on UDFA and former Eagles RB Miguel Maysonet was just another low for Mike Florio. Florio was strongly pushing that the Eagles cut Maysonet because of a “disconnect” between new head coach Chip Kelly and GM Howie Roseman. That or they signed free agent Felix Jones and Maysonet was way down on the depth chart and had virtually no chance at making the roster. I won’t link it because the story doesn’t deserve more page views.

-The NHL playoffs have been incredible. Once they’re over, I go nuts with boredom. My wife goes nuts too because she can’t handle me when I have free time. I constantly need to be doing something. Any hobbies beyond writing I should take up in a month or so?

-If any Redskins fans want to buy RGIII wedding gifts, here’s a story with the details.

Want more of Gimpy’s insight on the NFL, NHL, or wedding gifts?  Follow him on Twitter. There’s at least at 37 percent chance you won’t regret doing it.

by David Syvertsen

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Top 3 Needs: OT, Pass Rusher, ILB

#1 – Eric Fisher – OT/Central Michigan

-Best offensive tackle in this class.  Great athlete with size and presence.

-Fits in at RT right away and starts.  Long term security to the vital LT spot.

#63 – Travis Kelce – TE/Cincinnati

-Former wildcat quarterback with athletic, huge but still growing frame

-Gives KC a more complete TE that will block well and does things after the catch

#96 – Knile Davis – RB/Arkansas

-Total package when considering the tool set but underachieved on tape.

-Will fill out the depth chart and be given the opportunity to back up Charles.

#99 – Nico Johnson – LB/Alabama

-Capable two down run defender that needs to be kept inside

-Provides much needed talent and depth next to and/or behind Derrick Johnson

#134 – Sanders Commings – CB/Georgia

-Versatile skill set that can play all over the secondary.  Reliable performer.

-Can be used as a quality backup throughout the entire secondary

#170 – Eric Kush – C/California (PA)

-Quality athlete for the interior that moves fast with power and balance

-Developmental guy that can eventually add depth along the three inside spots

#204 – Braden Wilson – FB/Kansas State

-Huge, physical lead blocker that can makes some things happen with the ball

-Reid likes to use a conventional fullback to pave the way for his ground attack

#207 – Mike Catapano – DE/Princeton

-Strong presence on the outside that impressed in workouts and interviews

-Much needed depth outside that fits in well with a multi-look scheme

What They Did:

Year one of the Andy Reid era has gotten off to a great start.  Their offseason has to be considered a major success to this point, as they’ve pushed all the right buttons when it comes to building their roster to contend for a record over .500 in 2013.  They went offense-heavy in the first two days of the draft that will aid the resurgence of an offense that has the capability of being an efficient unit.  The two additions from the SEC conference on day three aren’t household names,, but Johnson and Commings are the kind of players that are valuable components that can put that defense on an elite level.

Top Value Pick: Sanders Commings – CB/Georgia (#60 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Tyler Bray – QB/Tennessee

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Top 3 Needs: Edge Rusher, Cornerback, Safety

#2 – Luke Joeckel – OT/Texas A&M

-Quality young blocker that is a safe bet to be a long time productive starter

-Will give Gabbert two high level blockers protecting the edge

#33 – Johnathan Cyprien – S/Florida International

-Physical presence over the middle that covers and tackles well

-Gives Bradley an immediate starter at a position with minimal NFL talent

#64 – Dwayne Gratz – CB/Connecticut

-Quick thinker that has an explosive and physical approach

-Rebuilding a secondary that really struggled in 2012 and lost its two best players

#101 – Ace Sanders – WR/South Carolina

-Playmaking talent that can use his lack of size to his advantage.  Used everywhere.

-Adds a missing dimension to an offense that has some overlooked promise

#135 – Denard Robinson – RB/Michigan

-Talented player with the ball in his hands.  Big play waiting to happen.

-Coaches can get creative with him and keep opposing defenses on their toes.

#169 – Josh Evans – S/Florida

-Pass defender that can play deep zone or man receivers up.  Physical and versatile

-A potential starter that fits in perfectly to the Bradley scheme next to Cyprien.

#208 – Jeremy Harris – CB/New Mexico State

-Tall and long corner with easy hips and light feet

-Another scheme based selection that can be coached up and thrown in to the fire.

#210 – Demetrius McCray – CB/Appalachian State

-Big and physical press corner with good ball skills

-Can fill out the depth chart and contend for playing time as a press corner

What They Did:

The secondary was a glaring weakness that needed to be addressed, and address it they did.  They brought in several schematic fits that will compete for starting positions right away. What they did at safety was one of the more impressive upgrades of draft weekend for me.  The league is turning towards a strict format consisting of one physical mauler and one rangy cover man at safety.  Evans and Cyprien will play very well next to each other.  They went with a sure thing to shore up the offensive line early, which is never a bad move with a young unproven quarterback.  And while he matures, they can help take the pressure off with the explosive playmakers added in Swearinger and Robinson.  Very successful draft for year one of the Caldwell/Bradley era.

Top Value Pick: Josh Evans – S/Florida (#53 overall player on my board)

UDFA Most Likely to Make Team: Matt Scott – QB/Arizona

Be sure to follow Dave on Twitter.

by NFL Gimpy

I’ll spare everyone the rant I gave last year on draft grades, but there are still plenty of topics related to the draft to discuss. There were several noteworthy trends that show what direction the NFL is headed.

The game of football starts and stops with the QB. When the Bills took EJ Manuel as the top QB, it shocked a lot of people. It forced many people to take another look at Manuel to see what they didn’t see. Basically, the Bills made an “upside” pick. I know Tommy was very low on Manuel and only included him in his top 100 because he knew Manuel would be drafted there. Manuel has superb physical gifts…yet with 10 other NFL draftees from this past season on his team he never dominated. You’d assume a 1^st round QB on a team with double digit NFL picks would be a guy whose play screams “NFL QB.” It didn’t.

Manuel has all of the physical tools to be a great QB. He comes off as confident and intelligent in interviews. You see flashes of brilliance on tape but he’s inconsistent at best. The Bills think they can turn him into the next Colin Kaepernick and thankfully Manuel will have a ton of talent around him. The Bills have one of the best 1-2 punches at RB in the NFL, a very good WR in Stevie Johnson, and a solid OL. If Manuel can cut down on the mistakes he made in college (28 INTs in 31 games) and take advantage of his athleticism plus the playmakers around him… it may work. I don’t think it will, but for the sake of long-suffering Bills fans, I hope I’m wrong. Bills vs. Dolphins for the AFC East is must more entertaining than Patriots vs. nobody.

Other than EJ, it’s tough to say any of the QBs had a good weekend. Geno Smith went from a possible top 5 pick to a 2^nd round pick. Matt Barkley could have been a top 10 pick if he came out in 2012. He was the #1 overall pick…in the 4^th round. Zac Dysert was a mid-round sleeper: 7^th round. At best, a few players were drafted in the correct vicinity. Mike Glennon in the 3^rd, Landry Jones in the 4^th, and Tyler Wilson in the 4^th went about when they were reasonably expected to go. I don’t want to call this a bad QB class because you never know who’s going to pan out. Geno Smith could develop a Tom Brady-sized chip on his shoulder and he’s certainly more physically talented than Brady was at this point. Mike Glennon could be the starter for the Bucs in 2014. Matt Barkley may be the QB of the future in Philadelphia if the Eagles don’t rely on their QB to run the ball.

We could easily see 3 or 4 long term starters out of this draft. We could also see none. It’s doubtful we’ll ever witness a 2012 Draft ever again, where we have at least 4 long term starters already inked onto depth charts (Luck, RG3, Tannehill and Wilson) and several others (Weeden, Foles, Osweiler) who could end up there as well. That doesn’t make the 2013 Draft a bad QB draft; it’s just tough to see it differently with the emphasis on the QB position as of late.

What I think NFL teams have realized is that they don’t have to draft premium positions with 1^st round picks. Before the rookie wage scale, a player drafted in the top 10 instantly became one of if not the highest paid player at his position. Eric Berry became the highest paid safety in NFL history due to his rookie contract. CJ Spiller, taken 8^th overall, got $20.8M guaranteed. To put that into comparison, the contract extension LeSean McCoy received before the 2012 season paid him $20.765M guaranteed. Spiller received more guaranteed money as a rookie than a premier player’s extension 2 years later. As you can see, there’s a reason this system was changed.  Continue reading →

* Geno Smith is a hot topic around the NFL right now. He fired his agents and many people think this makes Geno look bad. Since he didn’t get picked early, he’s trying to play the blame game.

I didn’t think the agents did a good job at all. Geno isn’t without fault, but the whole point in hiring an agent is having someone to guide you through the pre-draft process.

Geno skipping the Senior Bowl was the first major blunder. You can only skip the Senior Bowl if you are an elite prospect that is all but assured of being a Top 10 pick. The agents should have done everything possible to get Geno to Mobile. That would have given him a chance to show what he could do in a pro style offense. It would also have let him spend time around NFL coaches.

Many QBs over the years have benefited from this. Donovan McNabb impressed Jon Gruden in 1999. Philip Rivers impressed Marty Schottenheimer in 2004. Even odd QBs like Jake Locker, Tim Tebow, and Colin Kaepernick benefited from the Senior Bowl. EJ Manuel benefited in a big way this year.

You go there to sell yourself. You show that you’re willing to compete and get into an uncomfortable situation. You show how you can adapt to a new offense in a short time. You can show that you’re coachable.

Not going raises questions. It makes the player look either scared to compete or over-confident. Neither is a good option. It means that the player won’t meet teams until the Combine, which isn’t an ideal setting. Players are tired from medical exams and the crazy set up. The Senior Bowl is more relaxed and everything is football down in Mobile.

Geno had some bad meetings with teams, some at the Combine and some in visits. From the sound of things, he simply hadn’t been prepped on what he needed to do and say. A lot of it should be common sense, but things can be a bit complicated when millions of dollars are on the line.

This doesn’t make Geno a bad guy. It doesn’t mean that he won’t go on to have a great NFL career. Things got off to a rocky start because he either hired the wrong people or wouldn’t listen to their advice. Teams want to be comfortable with a QB when they invest a high pick in him. Drafting the wrong QB can lead to a coach and/or GM getting fired.

This isn’t just about money. The point is that the coach and GM must show that they can choose the right player to lead their organization. Talent is part of that, but brains, work ethic, maturity, tact, and mental/emotional toughness are every bit as important. We know Geno has NFL talent. The other stuff seems like more of a mystery at this point. He can answer a lot of those questions by how he handles things in the coming months.

I hope Geno does well. The NFL needs all the talented passers it can find and Geno has the potential to be a good QB and one that’s fun to watch.

* I am happy that NFL teams showed discipline this year in regard to drafting QBs. It hurts both teams and the players when the guys get over-drafted. That puts undue pressure on them. Guys like Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, and Tyler Wilson won’t be looked at as franchise QBs, but they all have the potential to be starters, whether in 2013 or down the road.

* Was there a better pick than the Ravens getting LB Arthur Brown in the 2nd round? That just feels like a great fit.

* I was surprised to see the Texans take Sam Montgomery to play LB. He looked a bit stiff to me. I thought he was more of a DE than a LB. I do trust Wade Phillips. If he thinks Montgomery can be a LB, who am I to question that.

* If RB Chris Thompson can stay healthy, the Skins are going to have one hell of a running attack. Thompson broke his back in 2011 and tore his ACL in 2012. The reason he was still a 5th round pick is that he has explosive speed. And he’s a tough runner for a small RB. The thought of him and RG3 in the backfield together is scary.

* Tim Tebow is on the street and no team seems to be interested. This isn’t about football. This is about the circus that comes with him. There are plenty of coaches who would like a chance to work with Tebow as a role player. No team wants the attention that he brings. Tebow brings a lot of this on himself. He should shun the media for a while if he wants to stay in the NFL. It would also help if he would tell teams that he’s open to playing H-back.

* What are the Lions going to do at OT? LT Jeff Backus retired. RT Gosder Cherilus left in free agency. Riley Reiff is the projected LT for now. There is no one on the roster that looks like a reliable RT. QB Matt Stafford has elite potential, but he needs protection in order to play up to that potential. I hope the Lions have another move planned.

* It is going to be a lot of fun this year to see what Gus Bradley can do in Jacksonville. He’s got an infectious personality and that is a big part of what that organization needs. Gus will bring over some ideas from Seattle. I’m very curious to see what he can replicate and what he can’t.

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by Matt Alkire

- FINAL -

1. Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
2. Jaguars – Dion Jordan, DE Oregon
3. Raiders – Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
4. Eagles – Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
5. Lions – Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
6. Browns – Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
7. Cardinals – DJ Fluker, OT Alabama
8. Bills – Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse
9. Jets – Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
10. Titans – Chance Wormack, OG Alabama
11. Chargers – Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina
12. Dolphins – Ziggy Ansah, DE BYU
13. Jets – Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida State
14. Panthers – Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida
15. Saints – Barkevious Mingo, OLB LSU
16. Rams – Kenny Vaccaro, FS Texas
17. Steelers – Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
18. Cowboys – Alec Ogletree, SLB Georgia
19. Giants – Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State
20. Bears – Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
21. Bengals – Terron Armstead, OT Arkansas Pine-Bluff
22. Rams – DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
23. Vikings – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
24. Colts – Jesse Williams, NT Alabama
25. Vikings – Arthur Brown, MLB Kansas State
26. Packers – Datone Jones, DE UCLA
27. Texans – Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
28. Broncos – Manti Te’o, MLB Notre Dame
29. Jaguars(f/NE) – Geno Smith, QB West Virginia (TRADE)
30. Falcons – Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
31. 49ers – Matt Elam, S Florida
32. Ravens – Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee

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by David Syvertsen

NFC EAST – How They Finished in 2012:

Washington Redskins (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

#4 (1st)
#35 (2nd)
#67 (3rd)
#101 (4th)
#136 (5th)
#210 (7th)
#212 (7th) f/CLE
#218 (7th) f/TB
#239 (7th) Comp

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

After a 14 year run with a lot of regular season success, the Andy Reid era has come to an end.  Enter Chip Kelly and his unorthodox, but dangerous offense from the college ranks.  Just how similar this offense will resemble what we saw at Oregon remains gray, but Kelly and former Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmer have plenty of playmakers with elite speed and quickness to use.  They added a couple of role players to that offense, James Casey and Arrelious Benn, giving this offense more options play-to-play than most teams around the league.  Defensively, this looks like an entirely new squad from what we saw in 2012.  Bill Davis will run a 3-4 scheme with some hybrid looks thanks to the versatility that already resided on that side of the ball.  They were very aggressive during free agency, bringing in multiple pieces to the puzzle that have experience in starting lineups across the league, but are still on the front nine of their careers.  The entire secondary has been altered, with potentially two new starters at cornerback and two new starters at safety. No defense has gone through more transition than the Eagles this offseason. Who the Eagles will be in 2013 is a huge mystery to me.

1 – Offensive Line

A high paced, as-many-plays-as-possible offensive scheme may not mesh well with multiple aging offensive linemen.  This was a unit that got beat up too often in 2012, its time for an infusion of young, fresh talent.

2 – Defensive End

The 3-4 scheme relies heavily on guys that demand attention up front.  While the personnel transition is under way, they still need depth outside and a guy that can wreck havoc.

3 – Defensive Back

The current starters are questionable talents that may be best suited for specific roles rather than every down duty.  They could add multiple cornerbacks and safeties where the value strikes.

The Plan:

Kelly may look at this offense as a potential juggernaut considering the amount of playmaking ability at his disposal at wide receiver and in the backfield.  In order for him to maximize their potential as a whole, he must look to beef up that offensive line with young, athletic talent.  There will be value available at some point and he must go after it when the time is right.  He has a specific kind of player that fits this system, thus he could stand to wait and not reach, allowing him to grab more defensive help early.

It is very important for the Eagles take their top graded player with their first selection, regardless of position.  Picking #4 overall with 8 more selections afterward is a tremendous opportunity to upgrade the talent of a team.  While they’ve been busy on defense via free agency, there are plenty of spots with room for young talent that can create a sense of competition within the current roster.  Kelly may want to add a quarterback later in the draft as well because of the specific traits his signal callers usually possess.

3 Round Mock:

#4 – Sharif Floyd – DT – Florida
#35 – Jonathan Cyprien – S – Florida International
#67 – David Bakhtiari – OT – Colorado

DALLAS COWBOYS

#18 (1st)
#47 (2nd)
#80 (3rd)
#114 (4th)
#151 (5th)
#185 (6th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Dallas continues to remain in the gray area of mediocrity.  They are not a bottom feeder, but they are not close to Super Bowl contention.  Changes needed to be made after their 8 win season in 2012.  They are throwing away the 3-4 defense, as Rob Ryan no longer runs that side of the ball.  Enter Monte Kiffin from the Tampa Cover 2 frame of mind that will attempt to create a new culture in Dallas.  One that will revolve around top tier pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and a top-notch duo of starting cornerbacks.  This team really struggled against the running game last year and even though they have a new scheme in place, they’ve lost some of their better defensive linemen without any quality replacements during free agency.  Veterans Justin Durant and Will Allen have been scheme-based acquisitions but will not raise the level of this unit.  Offensively, Dallas returns most of the underachieving unit from 2012, minus running back Felix Jones and wide receiver Kevin Ogletree.  Their offensive line was one of the worst in the league but the group returns intact hoping for better results.

1 – Offensive Line

There is enough talent at the skill positions to give the opposing defense a lot of headaches.  But their big boys up front do not control the point of attack which is easily exploited.

2 – Defensive Line

This isn’t a bad starting front four but the age concerns will catch up with them at some point.  The depth, especially outside, needs an upgrade considering the schematic change.

3 – Linebacker

They have lost a few quality backups to free agency and Kiffin needs to have more speed at the position so he can play the most ideal packages within his scheme.  The starting weak side spot could be upgraded, as could the depth along all three spots.

The Plan:

The Cowbouys have been competitive for a long time.  Ever since Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe, this has been a team that appeared to be the team to beat within this divison multiple times.  With that said, this current roster is the worst its been in quite some time.  They have drafted poorly for years in a row, proving that Jerry Jones is clearly in over his head.  They need to almost start this process over, selecting their highest graded players in every round regardless of position.

There is a sense of urgency along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They rarely control the point of attack.  No matter who is out there at the skill positions, if the lines are getting beat up they are toast.  Almost all of their most valuable players have past the 30 year old mark which could mean dark days ahead unless quality depth is added via the draft.

3 Round Mock   Continue reading →

by NFL Gimpy

The NFL Draft starts on Thursday. At this point, we still don’t know who the #1 overall pick will be. There are some really good guesses, but it’s more or less a coin flip at this point. I’ve continually said that this is going to be one of the most interesting drafts we’ve had in a long time. The lack of a top flight QB is the start of the confusion. This will most likely be the first draft since 2008 where a QB isn’t taken 1^st overall (Matt Ryan, 3^rd pick). There’s also a good chance it’s the first draft since 2000 that a QB isn’t taken in the top 3 (Chad Pennington, 18^th pick to the Jets in the Tom Brady draft). Tommy posted positional rankings and David has gone through team by team needs. As always, I like a macro-level perspective on things so I will go over what to look for with each position over the first 2 rounds and what to watch for.

QB: The biggest crapshoot in the draft, more so than usual. Geno Smith is the top QB for most, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the top guy. Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley could steal that spot depending on who drafts a QB first and which QB they covet. The next question is how many QBs go in the first round. It could be as few as 1 and as many as 4. The main thing to watch for is how many go in the 1^st round. A few teams may trade from the 2^nd round back up into the 1^st to get their man. If the 1^st round is slow on QBs, the 2^nd round will be crazy. There could be great value in the 3^rd round at QB as well, depending on a lot of factors. I’ve been a huge fan of Zac Dysert as a 3^rd round pick with great upside.

RB: Without a top guy like Trent Richardson was last year, it’s certainly debatable whether or not a RB will be drafted in the 1^st round. There are several RB needy teams (Steelers, Broncos, Rams, Jets…) but there aren’t that many 1^st round caliber RBs. I’ve seen Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, and Jonathan Franklin listed as the top guy. What’s important to note with RBs is that it’s a position where a rookie can make an immediate impact even if he isn’t a high 1^st round pick. Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris all were worthy of their starting roles and only 1 was a high 1^st round pick. David Wilson of the Giants came on strong late in the season with 247 rushing yards and 3 TDs in his last 4 games.

NFL teams know this and won’t invest a high 1^st in a RB unless he’s special. None of these guys are special. Watch for the first RB go to off the board because it could trigger the following 2 to come off very soon after. With 3 RBs who are likely ranked 6 different ways by NFL Teams, there could be a mini-run on RBs in the late 1^st or early 2^nd round. One other thing to watch for is Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore could easy have been the top RB if it wasn’t for a gruesome knee injury. He’s easily one of my favorite players in the draft and I hope he gets the chance to shine in 2014.

TE: This is one of my favorite positions in the draft this year because it’s full of players who should translate into starters yet there aren’t many teams who have a big need. This means someone is going to steal an impact player in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. There could be 1 or 2 guys in the first round, Tyler Eifert and/or Zach Ertz. Travis Kelce is a great prospect with some character concerns around him that I’ve heard are overblown, but still not something you write off.

WR: WR is an extremely deep position with a lot slightly flawed talents. Tavon Austin is one of the most dynamic playmakers college football has seen the past few years, but his short stature (5’8”) hurts his stock a little. Cordarrelle  Patterson and Justin Hunter have had issues with drops. Keenan Allen has knee issues. There are 6 or 7 guys who will likely go in the top 2 rounds and all but Austin are 6’1 or taller. Look to see how much Austin’s height pushes him down. If he’s not one of the top 2 WRs taken, someone will be thanking the football gods. The NFL is a passing league; you need great pass catchers and there’s a lot of potential in this group.

OT: It is a close to a foregone conclusion that 3 OTs will go in the top 10. Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, and Eric Fisher are all LT prospects and in a pass heavy league they’re highly valued. The order they go in will be based off of individual preference of the teams who draft them. The main thing to look for is next 3 or 4 guys off the board, guys like Menelik Watson, Justin Pugh, and Terron Armstead. Watson and Armstead are great athletes who need a little seasoning. Pugh isn’t as great of an athlete, but is much more of a finished product. When these 3 get drafted will have a big impact on picks 15-40. If they go in the top 30, it means some very talented players will get pushed down further than they should.   Continue reading →

Just some random stuff for today.

* Let’s talk about D.J. Hayden, the CB from Houston. I’ve not mentioned him much at all because he was a medical mystery. Hayden took a hit in practice during the year and almost died. It crushed his inferior vena cava.  NFL teams weren’t sure what to make of Hayden. Can you draft a guy who almost died from a routine hit?

Apparently teams are comfortable with him. Mike Mayock, who is well-connected to teams, has put Hayden at the top of his CB rankings. Adam Caplan, also well-connected, has heard that Hayden could go in the 20 to 30 range.

I like Hayden a lot based on game tape. The best compliment I can give to a player is that he plays with a great sense of urgency. Hayden does just that. Way too many CBs are casual. If the ball doesn’t come their way, they relax. Hayden chases plays all over the field. He wants to make every tackle. I love that. Not only does he hustle, he’s fast, tackles well, and takes good pursuit angles. Hayden saved a few TDs for Houston by chasing players down from behind when they appeared to be headed for the endzone.

A lot of times the players who play like that are not very talented. They make up for the lack of talent with great effort. That’s not the case with Hayden. He is extremely talented. Hayden is fast, quick, and athletic. He has very good hands. He is a skilled CB. Hayden is good at jumping routes and playing the ball.

In the last 2 years, Hayden had 6 INTs, 19 PDs, 6 FFs, and 9.5 TFLs. He ran 3 of the picks back for TDs. So you have a CB with skills, speed, athleticism, and who likes to play the run and tackle. This is a really gifted player. I don’t think all 32 teams will have Hayden on their draft boards. It will be interesting to see how much some teams do like him. Is he the first CB taken? Is he a Top 20 player? Does he go in the 1st round?

* FSU star Tank Carradine had his workout today. Early reports say that he ran a 4.75 at 273 pounds. Why is this a big deal? He tore his ACL in late November. He’s making a speedy recovery and might just be able to be a factor in 2013. He could still be a Top 20 pick, but team doctors will be the key guys in determining his value.

* Some raw notes on Richmond S Cooper Taylor. He is 6-4, 229.

“Massive Safety. Looks like a LB. Plays like one at times. Lines up on the LOS on a regular basis. Is withing 10 yards of the LOS on almost every snap. At times he looks like a star. JMU lined up in the Ace formation and ran at Taylor. He drove the TE backward, shed him, and stuffed the RB. A few plays later the TE drove him 5 yards off the ball. Can cover TEs. Didn’t get a feel for him against WRs. Wrap-up tackler, but didn’t drive through his targets forcefully. Showed good range vs the run. Good speed. Some teams could consider him a SAM. Taylor will take on pulling OL and has the size/strength to win some of those battles.”

* Some raw notes on James Madison OG Earl Watford.

“ LG. Active, athletic blocker. Pulls a lot. Does a good job of blocking on the move. Has good feet. Plays under control. Can move laterally or turn his hips and get outside. Shows good awareness. Chooses his targets wisely. Gets into position to block. Doesn’t lunge for targets, even in space. Uses his hands well. Solid pass protector. Lacks the size to be a dominating drive blocker.”

* San Jose State TE Ryan Otten has some fans. I’m skeptical. He is 6-5, 230 and has pretty good speed. He averaged 16 yards per reception and showed the ability to stretch the field at times. My big issue is that Otten is slow out of his stance. He lacks quickness. That worked at SJSU, but will be a major issue in the NFL. He’s worth a late round pick, but will need some work.

* Oregon State WR Markus Wheaton has some strong supporters. Count me among them. He’s got the speed to get behind defenses. He’s also a polished WR that can get open on short and underneath routes. He’ll even block when asked to.

* Safety Don Jones of Arkansas State has been getting a lot of attention from NFL teams. He is a really interesting player. Jones is 5-11, 191, but mostly played near the LOS for ASU. He would line up in the slot at times. He can cover. He also showed the ability to blitz and pressure the QB. Jones got my attention with his run defense. He was able to move through traffic and get to the ball.  Good tackler. Plays bigger than his size. Good speed and has some explosion to his game.

* DE Margus Hunt (6-8, 277) has grown on me. I was highly critical of him early on as a workout warrior. Seeing his pedestrian performance at the Senior Bowl bugged me. I’ve since studied a few games. He was really good against Tulane. He gave QB Ryan Griffin fits in that game. Hunt showed the ability to fly off the edge, but also pressure up the middle as a 3-tech DL. His age (26 this year) still bugs me. Hunt is at his physical peak. I would be willing to spend a 2nd round pick on him.

* Joe Kruger (6-6, 269) is just the opposite. I like him quite a bit as well, but Kruger is just 20 years old. He is scratching the surface of how good he can be. Kruger only started 14 games in his 3 years at Utah. I currently have him slotted as a 5th rounder, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him even go in the 4th. Kruger is tailor-made for the 3-4. He can bulk up to 285 and carry it well. He’s a good athlete and has some pass rush ability. Really good potential, but will need some time.

by David Syvertsen

How They Finished in 2012:

Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Detroit Lions (4-12)

DETROIT LIONS

#5 (1st)
#36 (2nd)
#65 (3rd)
#132 (4th) Comp
#137 (4th)
#171 (6th)
#211 (7th)
#245 (7th)

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Detroit finished as one of the biggest disappointments in the league last year, ending the year with 8 straight losses.  They were involved in a lot of close games but repeatedly struggled to keep the opposition out of the end zone.  They forked up a lot of points, forcing Matthew Stafford and his offense in to a pass-heavy game plan that was exploited by a lack of top tier pass protection.  They’ve lost two starters from that sub-par unit up front, and have yet to add any new pieces.  Their skill position players are some of the most explosive in the game, and that was before they signed Reggie Bush to a long term deal.  If they can control the line of scrimmage, Detroit will be nearly impossible to stop on offense.  Defensively they lost their top pass rusher in Cliff Avril, replacing him with the versatile but unspectacular Jason Jones.  The secondary struggles seem to be on the horizon yet again, as the only addition to this point is Glover Quin at free safety.  He is not a game changer and won’t be able to hide the gaping holes they have back in their back four.

1 – Left Tackle

Stafford spent too much time on the ground in 2012 and they need to do a better job of protecting him from the outside rush.  2012 first rounder Riley Reiff is an option, but he could play inside.  He is not a guy you base your draft around at all.  They could be in position to grab one of the two big time left tackles early.

2 – Defensive End

The pass defense woes will never improve without a better outside rush to help balance the performance they currently have from the top 1-2 defensive tackle punch on football.  There is a lack of credible talent among both the starters and backups.

3 – Defensive Back

The corners and safeties could use an upgrade in talent.  They did spend 3 picks on corners last year, but none of these guys should alter any draft day plans.  This secondary is average at best.

The Plan:

The offense is good enough to cause any opposing coach to lose sleep for the week leading up to their matchup.  Stafford is on the brink of becoming an elite quarterback and he has the top receiver in the game to throw to with plenty of solid secondary options.  The addition of Bush adds another dynamic that will laterally stretch the field, creating enormous matchup problems across the board.  But as we’ve seen several times, talent at the skill positions will never shine without solid play from the offensive line.  Once the opportunity is there for the Lions to bring in a talent in the trenches, they must pounce.

If the pass rush continues to underwhelm more often than not, the lack of talent in the Lions back seven is going to force the Lions in to lot of shootouts.  That has never and will never be the approach that Super Bowl teams can take.  There is a lot of potential for the Lions to control the point of attack against the run, but the outside rush needs a couple upgrades.  The Lions aren’t far away at all but a lack of talent in both trenches will make their ascent that much more difficult.

3 Round Mock:

#5 – Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
#36 – Johnthan Banks – CB – Mississippi State
#65 – Cornelius Washington – DE – Georgia    Continue reading →

by David Syvertsen

NFC SOUTH: How They Finished

Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

#13 (1st)
#43 (2nd)
#73 (3rd)
#112 (4th)
#126 (4th) f/NE
#147 (5th)
#181 (6th)
#196 (6th) f/DEN via PHI

2013 Offseason: Where They Stand

Year one of the Greg Schiano era could not have been considered a disappointment, but the Bucs failed to take the leap forward that many were projecting.  They have a good offense, led by a quarterback entering his prime playing behind an underrated offensive line and a nice set of skill players.  They had a dominant run defense all season along with established, starting caliber back seven players.  This appears to be a young team ready for the next level.  However, the Bucs have lost two of their best run stuffers along the front line so far, and have done little to replace them.  While they have able bodies up front, there is work to be done at the point of attack to replace them and find a more capable pass rusher outside.  The signing of free safety Dashon Goldson gives the Bucs a top tier safety duo that can hide some of the instability and lack of production they have been getting from their cornerbacks.    The offense pretty much returns intact from last year plus a couple veteran wide receivers that can boost production from the slot.

1 – Defensive End

With only 27 sacks from the entire team, the Bucs need to find a pass rusher somewhere in this class, preferably outside.  There is little promise on this roster as it currently stands at the position.

2 – Tight End

The one year deal for Dallas Clark in 2012 was not a failure but the Bucs did not get what they were hoping for out of him.  An athletic pass catcher with at least some presence as a blocker could be a big help for this offense.

3 – Cornerback

There are worse CB situations around the league, but the Bucs are in a division loaded with top tier passing offenses.  There is space for an early round corner if the value matches up.

The Plan:

This is a big year for Tampa Bay.  Greg Schiano has come in and changed the culture of this franchise, running a defensive minded approach that is built on controlling the line of scrimmage and using the speed and talent of their back seven to make plays.  The one element missing however, and it is a gaping hole, is the lack of a pass rush presence.  They don’t have anybody outside that demands the double teams.  Matching a quality defensive end with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy could give the Bucs that final push that elevates their defense to playoff-caliber.

Offensively, the Bucs are close to being on par with the rest of their division.  Josh Freeman is a quality quarterback and he is now handing it off to one of the top young running backs in the league.  There is more than enough talent at wide receiver to put plenty of points on the board week in, week out.  Up front, they have a solid unit but there isn’t enough depth should the injuries pile up.  They should wait until they find the right value and bring in a lineman that can play multiple spots.

3 Round Mock:

#13 – Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State
#43 – David Amerson – CB – NC State
#73 – Dallas Thomas – G – Tennessee    Continue reading →