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Draft Grades / Notes

Matt's NFC draft grades are now posted in the forums section.

I'll be posting an AFC division every other day.

Rather than give traditional letter grades, I’m going to present the case for and against each set of picks.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker

* AFC WEST*

DENVER

FOR:  The Broncos OL needed talent and youth.  Ryan Clady gives them both.  Eddie Royal gives them a talented, experienced RS and underrated WR.  The 4th round produced two talented MAC players in OL Korey Lichtensteiger and CB Jack Williams.  5th Rd RB Ryan Torain is a good fit for their style of running.  S Josh Barrett was great value late. 

AGAINST:  They could have used a quality LB.  They have plenty of bodies, but aside from DJ Williams there is little to get excited about.  Royal is an awkward fit at WR.  Denver normally likes big guys.  Eddie is just under 5'10 and weighs less than 190. 

MISC:  Peyton Hillis could prove to be a great pick.  Shanahan has been able to get RBs to block for him as they moved to FB (Mike Anderson, Ruben Droughns).  I have to think he can teach a FB to block.  Hillis is a great fit for Denver because of his ability as a receiver. 


KANSAS CITY

FOR:  They had the best draft of all 32 teams.  The Chiefs had a tremendous amount of quality picks, but they used them wisely.  Coming away from the 1st round with Glenn Dorsey and Branden Albert is a major coup.  CB Brandon Flowers is perfect for the KC defense.  Jamaal Charles and DaJuan Morgan were excellent value in the 3rd.  6th round pick Kevin Robinson could be the RS of the future.  7th round pick Brian Johnston has NFL size and athletic ability. 

AGAINST:  I'll have to get creative to find a downside to these picks, but here goes.  The Chiefs failed to find anyone to really fill the spot departed by Jared Allen.  QB Brodie Croyle got little help out of the picks.  His new 3rd round TE caught 5 passes in 2007.  His 4th round WR played second fiddle to a Redshirt Freshman at Missouri.  His 6th round WR runs in the 4.7 range.  Croyle did get a good RB, but that was already the strength of the offense. 

MISC:  OT Barry Richardson has NFL size and ability.  The coaches have to get him to bend his knees.  If they can do that and get him to play more consistently, he could prove to be a real steal as a RT in the 6th round.  Either way, smart gamble.


OAKLAND

FOR:  They added speed.  Wait, what year is this?  I think I said that last year and the year before.  RB Darren McFadden adds a major playmaker to the offense, something the Raiders needed.  Receivers Arman Shields and Chaz Schilens are big, fast targets for Jamarcus Russell.  Tyvon Branch ran really well at the Combine and can play S or CB. 

AGAINST:  This team needed help, but only added 3 players in the top 150.  Trading back would have made a lot of sense.  Sticking at 4 and going for McFadden puts a lot of pressure on him to play like an elite RB.  While the WRs are big and fast, they combined to catch 49 passes in 2007.  Counting on small school guy coming off injury seems like a questionable plan. 

MISC:  DE Trevor Scott is still learning to play defense, but he has size and athletic ability.  He was a solid developmental pick in the late rounds. 


SAN DIEGO

FOR:  The Chargers are a team of playmakers.  Adding Antoine Cason in the late 1st gives them another playmaker.  Jacob Hester is the kind of high character role player that every team can use.  Several picks were traded away last year in draft day moves. 

AGAINST:  They traded away next year's 2nd round pick to move up and take Hester.  He's a solid player, but not worth giving up a future 2nd for.  I'm a huge Cason fan, but there are many out there who will tell you he wasn't worth a 1st.  RB Marcus Thomas in the 5th was a surprise to me.

MISC:  6th round pick DeJuan Tribble fascinates me.  He made a lot of plays at BC, but didn't run well and struggled at the Senior Bowl.  I want to dismiss this kid because of his size and speed, but I'm always willing to take a chance on playmakers. 


Interviews

John Carlson - April 8th

Jonathan Goff - April 2nd

Ryan O'Hara - March 27th

Chris Williams - March 25th

Josh Johnson - March 19th

Trevor Laws - February 14th

Tom Zbikowski - January 6th


Football Notes

*** NFL blog is below ***

by Tommy Lawlor

scoutsnotebook@gmail.com

4-27-08

The Draft is complete.  This was a very interesting Draft.  Think back to September.  Could you have imagined that DeSean Jackson would go mid-2nd, Andre Woodson and Mike Hart would go in the 6th, or that some guy named Branden Albert would go 15th overall?  Amazing how guys rise and fall with intense scrutiny and lots of testing. 

Matt and I will be doing a review and giving out draft grades in the next couple of days.  We want to have time to really study the picks and not rush in to who did what.  I think you have to let the dust clear, then step back and evaluate what happened.  Some picks may seem questionable initially, but will make sense the more you think about them. 


___________________________________

4-26-08

630pm EST UPDATE

We now have 2/3 of the 1st round in the books. There have been quite a few surprising picks.

* The Pats finally took a LB, ILB to be specific. We knew it had to happen one day. I think Jerod Mayo is enough of a versatile, athletic guy that Belichick can move him around and be creative.

* Glenn Dorsey to KC makes perfect sense. They lose an impact DL and then draft an impact DL.

* The run on RBs was interesting. I didn't see that coming.

* No WR has gone as of pick 29. That was somewhat predicted by coaches, scouts, and GMs.

* Gosder Cherilus to the Lions...in the top 20? That really surprised me. He can step right in at RT and will fit their desire for a physical running game. I just don't think he was good value.

* There were a couple of OL reaches. I didn't like the Falcons pick of Sam Baker. That just feels like a major reach. I did like the pick of Duane Brown for the Texans. He is a great fit for the Texans. They have needed OL for years. I don't think Duane is great value there, but he is an instant answer.


As for the Eagles...

The trade back is not a sign of "giving up for 2008" or any of that nonsense. Tom Heckert and Andy Reid didn't like the choices on the board compared to the option of adding the 1st round pick for the future. They obviously felt they could move back into the 2nd and pick up similar players to the ones available at 19, but with additional ammo.

The Eagles made a trade for Miami RB Lorenzo Booker. This was a smart move by the Eagles. Here are my notes on him from last year:

Tommy's Notes on Lorenzo Booker Elite RB coming out of HS. Never developed into that kind of player at FSU. Doesn't seem to have the size/durability to be a workhorse RB. Only had 20 or more carries 4 times in his career. Lorenzo is a talented RB. He is fast. Explosive runner. Skinny build. Cuts quickly. Can make cuts at or near full speed. Excellent feet. Good receiver. Great on screen passes, but can also catch the ball downfield. Routes could use a little work. Good on cutback runs. Doesn’t have great hips. Makes moves with his feet. Good I-formation RB. Hits the hole hard. Needs to improve at blitz pickup, but will stick his head in there and try to take on rushers. Has potential as a Return Specialist, but only had one PR and 4 KORs in his career at FSU. Ran for 2,389 yds and caught 114 passes.

SUMMARY

Lorenzo doesn't project as a starting RB in the NFL. He is such a good receiver that he could be an outstanding backup/role player. I see him going in the 3rd Rd. If a team feels he could really help at RS, could sneak into the 2nd Rd.


Booker gives Philly a 3rd down type RB. He also has RS potential. You may ask why they'd want a smaller RB like that, but they needed one in case anything happens to Brian Westbrook. Booker is only 24. He has a bright future. As poor as the Dolphins were last year, Booker averaged 4.5 ypc. He also caught 28 passes. That means he can be effective with limited touches, something he's likely to get with Westbrook as the feature back. The upside to getting him is that the Eagles don't have to worry about him adjusting to the NFL. He's ready for Freddie.

With the 2nd round picks...expect the Eagles to look for a CB and a WR. How about Antwaun Molden and Jordy Nelson? Stay tuned for some 2nd round fun.


* Now the reports have:

2 - STL - Chris Long
3 - ATL - Matt Ryan
4 - OAK - Darren McFadden

Interesting. I'm not sure I completely buy all the reports. They all make sense, but you wonder why teams would leak their picks unless they had an agenda. The thought is that they'd be trying to create trade interest.

It certainly worked with the reporters. We now hear all kinds of speculation about the Ravens moving up to #2 to get Matt Ryan. Unfortunately, the Ravens have no 3rd round pick. Their 2nd rounder isn't enough to move up. Would they dip into next year's picks? It doesn't seem likely.


* If the Falcons do take Matt Ryan, which I don't totally buy, the pick will have a heavy Arthur Blank influence. Mr. Blank made his money in business. He understands marketing and PR as well as anyone (not Bill Hicks favorite owner). Blank knows the Falcons need a face for the franchise. Matt Ryan could be that guy. I think taking a DT high and QB in the early 2nd would be safer, but Ryan could end up being the smartest pick. I do believe in him as a franchise QB.


* For Eagles fans...things are getting interesting. OT Chris Williams has reportedly been taken off some boards because of a neck/shoulder "potential problem". He never missed time at Vandy, but NFL teams are scared of medical risks. Maybe Williams does in fact fall to 19.

If the Eagles want to go elsewhere...Felix Jones of Arkansas would be a sleeper pick. Jones was the backup at Arkansas. He isn't a workhorse runner. That works in his favor with the Eagles. He could get 8-12 touches in a game and have an impact. Those touches could come on runs, catches, and kick returns. The Eagles haven't been linked with Felix to this point. This is pure speculation on my part.

Dave Spadaro of PhiladelphiaEagles.com mentioned DE Phillip Merling as a potential target in a radio interview on Friday. I heard from someone else that Merling is a potential target. Merling doesn't seem like an Eagles kind of target. I have to wonder if this isn't a smokescreen that the team is leaking.

___________________________________

4-25-08

* Couple of Eagles related bits today. First, Lito Sheppard reportedly visited the Bucs. He says he just happened to be in Tampa. Maybe. Jay Glazer of Fox reports he was there in relation to being traded. Do I believe the player or network inside information man?

Sheppard to the Bucs is interesting. They lost Brian Kelly in FA, but still have Ronde Barber and Philip Buchanon. They added Eugene Wilson as a FA and are projecting him to CB. Why not just draft a CB somewhere in rounds 2-4? That would make the most sense, but Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen love to acquire veteran players when they can.

The compensation would be a 2nd round pick and possibly WR Michael Clayton. The pick makes sense, but I'm not so sure about Clayton. He had a great rookie year, catching 80 passes and 7 TDs. In the 3 seasons since then, he has 87 catches and 1 TD. Ouch. That kind of production will get you killed in Philly. The man Eagles fan want upgraded, Reggie Brown, averages more catches and TDs per season and more yards per catch. Go figure that one.

Lito Sheppard is on his way out of Philly. The question is where he'll go and how much they'll get in return.


* Item #2 involves Gosder Cherilus. There has been a lot of talk about him in the last day or two. Various members of the mainstream media are picking him to go to the Eagles at 19. Pro Football Weekly ran an item mentioning that they were hearing Cherilus had passed Jeff Otah on several draft boards. Hmmm.

Anyone see the movie Midway? Hal Holbrook's character talks about how the Japanese flooded the airwaves with fake radio traffic prior to the Pearl Harbor attack. That's what this feels like...fake info to distract us/other teams. I bet you the Eagles had someone leak to a couple of media outlets that they are really high on Cherilus. In fact, a source has told us that the Eagles don't like Cherilus. This source has been on the money on other issues. I'll trust him, especially with the way all the Cherilus talk came to the forefront at the same time. That can't just be a coincidence. The earliest Cherilus comes off the board is to Pittbsurgh, and I'm not real sure of that. He's more of a late 20's/early 30's kind of prospect.

___________________________________

4-24-08 ... UPDATED 23:45

* Just heard again that the Rams will take Glenn Dorsey with the 2nd pick. Apparently they like Chris Long a lot, but feel Dorsey is just too good to pass up.

Also heard that Buffalo is hoping Derrick Harvey falls to 11, but if not they are prepared to take WR Devin Thomas. Nothing new in that info, but it was confirmed by a source with knowledge of the situation.

The proof will be in the pudding on Saturday. Chocolate pudding, hopefully.



* We heard from a source yesterday that the Rams are locked in to picking DT Glenn Dorsey at #2. Today Gil Brandt is saying he's been told by a source that the Rams will take DE Chris Long. I guess Vernon Gholston must be the real pick.

The Rams can't get this wrong, from the point of choosing one option or the other. The player may not pan out, but any of the 3 players makes sense from a value standpoint. They all fit what the Rams are looking for. It really comes down to a question of which player you are most comfortable with.

I'm sticking with my Dorsey prediction. He would offer them a disruptive force up the middle. Clifton Ryan can be the NT. Adam Carriker can slide out to LDE. That group can play the run as well as get to the QB. The Rams were 20th vs the run and 21st vs the pass. Both areas need work. My thinking is that they will focus on stopping the run, which will allow them to blitz and attack more in known passing situations.

Plus, the Rams can add a good DE in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. The DT class thins out in a hurry. You better strike early if you want a good DT.

The other factor that has me lean toward Glenn is pure upside. If he pans out, you are looking at a Warren Sapp type of player. If Long pans out...? He could be a Aaron Kampman kind of LDE. That is good, but it isn't Warren Sapp.

The argument for Long is that he probably is the safer of the two picks. Worst case for him would be a Tamba Hali type of LDE...lots of hustle and effort, but not a difference maker.


* Believe it or not, I'm still watching some tape. There are always small school guys to check out. Here are some thoughts on a couple:

Brian Witherspoon - CB/RS - Stillman --- This kid stood out in a big way. In the game I watched he picked off a pass and returned a punt for a TD. He looked fast, quick, and athletic. He can cover. Brian went to the Deion Sanders school of tackling, which could be an issue. He really impressed me as a RS. The PR TD was a thing of beauty. He caught the punt and had good blocking for the first 8-10 yards. At that point 3 defenders were about to converge on him. Brian hit the gas pedal and flew straight up the field and into the open. TD. That burst was impressive. Really good stuff. He's a late round kid at best, but has NFL athleticism.

Gary Butler - LB - California (PA) --- Gary plays OLB in a 3-4. They list him at 6'1, 235, which looks about right. He had 19 TFLs and 12 sacks this year. Fun player to watch. He is a downhill, attacking LB. Has good agility. Looks okay in space, but didn't drop back much. Has a few pass rush moves. Gary lacks the size to be a 3-4 LB in the NFL, most likely. He could play ILB. I think he'd be a good WLB type. Should stand out on STs. Likely a UDFA, but could be one of the small school guys who sticks around.

Brad Roach - QB - Catawba --- Big kid. They list him at 6'6, 245. I'm not sure he's that size, but he's in the ballpark. Brad has NFL potential. He's got a pretty good arm. He moves around well for a big guy. Think of him as the poor man's Joe Flacco. I could easily see a team taking him late.

Joe Mays - ILB - North Dakota State --- I'm not sure if he has the speed for the NFL, but he is a classic 2-down run stuffer. He will control the middle. Productive, experienced player. Loves to hit. He's a "thumper" at MLB. Could be a STs standout.

Rudie Hardie - DE - Howard --- Gets moved around a lot. Plays DE and DT. Very productive and disruptive player. Lacks the top burst for DE in the NFL. I think he should consider adding 10-15 pounds and moving to DT. He looked more effective inside.

___________________________________

4-23-08 ... UPDATED

* The rumors are swirling. Every team is talking to every other team about every player.

You are going to hear all kinds of rumors this week. Some are completely legit and make total sense. Some are planted stories by agents. Others are leaked by teams. Everyone has an agenda.

Agents are trying to get the best possible scenario for their clients. One of the NY papers had a report about the Jets moving up for Darren McFadden. To me, this reeks of agent nonsense. I bet Darren's agent is desperate to get him picked in the top 5. I can't imagine the Jets feel they have to move up for him. The only team that might take Darren is the Raiders. If Al Davis pulls the trigger on McFadden you just have to let him go. He has too many questions to be worth moving up from #6 to get.

I could see the agent leaking the story hoping to create some buzz that would cause the Jets to move up for him. This may sound crazy, but remember Rosenhaus getting on the phone with McGahee? Drew and Willis sat side by side and talked to each other on the phone. This gave the impression that teams were calling them and helped McGahee to get picked by Buffalo in the 1st round. The Bills might have been considering moving down to get him, but decided to play it safe and take him when they saw the phone calls on ESPN. Only later did we all learn that they had simply talked to each other.

Teams are doing a lot of talking to each other right now. This is done for a couple of reasons. First, teams want to know who is available and what the asking price is. Then they have a pre-Draft meeting and discuss their options and decide to make a trade or hold onto the pick. Secondly, teams want to know about players that they might not have interest in so that it might help them if they are working a deal with a team who is interested in a player on the market. If you know the Saints are shopping their 2nd round pick for Jeremy Shockey, you can keep it in the back of your mind that the Saints might be interested in your 2nd round pick. Information is power.

Smokescreens are part of the situation as well. The Eagles have been associated with a slew of possible trades. The Eagles were linked with both Jared Allen and Jason Taylor. Teams will figure out that the Eagles want a DE. When the Eagles start making calls about moving into the top ten, some teams will assume it is for DE Derrick Harvey. In reality, it could very well be OL Branden Albert. The interest in Allen and Taylor could have been a giant ruse to confuse everyone. Or it could be legit. That's the confusing part of Draft week. You don't really know anything for sure.

As for specific rumors...

* I do believe the Redskins and Eagles are both talking to teams about veteran WRs. Availablity is going to be tricky. It doesn't seem like ARZ, CIN, or DET want to move their receivers. The hard part for them would be replacing those players. They could use draft picks, but rookie receivers normally don't contribute much.

* I think the Dolphins are shopping Jason Taylor. Asking for a 1st Rd'er? That seems crazy. Yes, he's a special player, but he's entering his 12th season. No one will give up a 1st for him. No way.

* Shaun Alexander is a free man. I could see Jon Gruden calling him.


* Jared Allen is a Viking. In return, the Chiefs got pick #17 and a pair of 3rd round picks. To me, both sides won.

The Vikings have been a good pass rusher away from a top flight defense for a few years now. They've tried to find the player in the Draft, but things have just not worked out. Adding Allen gives them an instant solution.

Brad Childress might be on the hot seat this year. He needs to win. Owner Ziggy Wilf also has to be feeling pressure from the fans. The Vikings last made the playoffs in 2004. They last won more than 10 games in 2000. Fans get impatient. They want to win now.

Minnesota might have one of the best front sevens in the NFL. They have Adrian Peterson. They added Bernard Berrian and Madieu Williams this offseason. If Tarvaris Jackson can play at a reasonably high level, the Vikings can get good in a hurry. They did pay a steep price, but the reward might be worth it.

As for KC...that team is more than one player away. By adding 3 high picks, they could be looking at as many as 3 new starters. Jared Allen is a top flight DE, but the thought of 3 young starters was too much to pass up.

The Chiefs now have a lot of freedom in the 1st round. They can go DL, OL, or even QB with pick #5. They can turn around and address one of those spots at pick 17. I think the smart thing would be to plan on taking Sedrick Ellis, Chris Long, or Vernon Gholston at 5 and then to target the best OT at 17. They could even trade up from 17 to get the OT they prefer. Adding a 3rd round pick could get them up as high as #12 possibly.

Jimmy Johnson was a master at acquiring picks and going for big draft classes. It worked wonders at Dallas. He had less luck at Miami, but did net some good players with that style (Zack Thomas and Jason Taylor might be guys you've heard of).

The Chiefs got old in a hurry. This is a way for them to get young in a hurry. They now have 6 picks in the top 100. This will be a critical weekend for the future of Herm Edwards, Carl Peterson, and Kansas City.

___________________________________

4-22-08

* Michigan finally beat Ohio State!!!

Jake Long is a Miami Dolpin and your new #1 overall draft pick. Congratulations to Jake and the Dolphins.

I was wrong, wrong, and wrong on this one. I thought Long was a smokescreen to try for a trade or to get a good deal from Vern Gholston. Could be that Miami wanted Gholston, but couldn't get him to agree to a reasonable deal. Or maybe they simply wanted Jake more. We'll never really know.

The Dolphins get themselves a good OL who can be part of the foundation of a good line and offense. Don't expect a Joe Thomas effect. Cleveland already had some key pieces in place. Joe put them over the top. Long is part of the foundation. He needs some help up front as well as some talented skill players. Might not hurt to add a QB. That might take place with pick 32.


* So the Rams are on the clock. Since I whiffed on the Jake Long/Miami pick, I need to redeem myself. Right now I'm leaning toward the Rams going with Glenn Dorsey.

Glenn would be the under tackle of the future. He and Clifton Ryan (the NT of the future) would make a good duo. LaRoi Glover is getting up there. Use him as best you can. At his best, Glenn could be a Warren Sapp type of player that would wreak havoc up the middle. At his worst...he'd be like all the other Rams underachieving DTs.

Adam Carriker then shifts to LDE. He's got the size and athletic ability to be a good LDE. He can play the run, but is also athletic enough to rush the passer.

Would the Rams risk another high pick on a DT? I think so. This is a slightly different group than the ones who took and coached Damione Lewis, Jimmy Kennedy, and Ryan Pickett.

Should they pass on Glenn, the pick has to be Chris Long or Vern. I'd lean toward Chris because he feels like such a safe pick.


* Matt and I have talked about the top CB spot quite a few times. I decided to the smart thing and go back to the game tape. I watched some of McKelvin (should we call him McLovin?) and DRC. Leodis played at a very high level all year long. DRC had a so-so year. He doesn't stand out on tape nearly as much. There are some circumstances that hurt him, but he didn't shine until he got to Mobile and Indy. With that in mind, I've shifted McLovin back to #1.

___________________________________

4-21-08

* This is NOT draft week. Many would have you believe that, but it isn't the case. This is actually Misinformation Week. Do not trust anything you read or hear, except from me of course. As your humble narrator, I'd never lie to you or mislead you in any way.

I know for a fact that teams spread lies directly and indirectly. "Team sources" and "league sources" are often guys told to leak info for a certain reason. I could give you examples except that I'd be shoved in a car, driven to East Germany, and turned loose without my papers. I certainly don't want that to happen again.

This week is the time to question everything you read and hear. This is the week where Doubting Thomas is the most important disciple of them all (much to the chagrin of Peter and Paul).

What makes this so tough is that there will be a tremendous amount of NFL coverage this week. You will hear insider reports from 1.2 billion sources, all claiming to be at least 1% right. Good luck finding the handful of useful nuggets that leak out. In a way, this is like the draftnik version of an Easter Egg hunt.


* We have a few 1st round prospects with medical issues this year. The big ones are DE Quentin Groves, DE Phillip Merling, and RB Jonathan Stewart.

Teams will have different grades based on the medical conditions. Some teams won't be bothered by the problems, others will. The Steelers took TE Heath Miller a couple of years back when he had a sports hernia injury. Heath played as a rookie and was good. The Eagles have had starters miss time in 2 of the last 3 years due to sports hernias. I could see the Eagles downgrading Merling because of his sports hernia, but the Steelers being less concerned.

Groves had a procedure done to fix a problem with his heart. I have no idea what this will mean. I know that Michael Lewis had an irregular heartbeat that cause him to drop 15-30 spots in the 2002 Draft. It hasn't affected his career at all.

Another former Eagle comes to mind with Stewart and his foot injury. Keith Byars reportedly had some kind of foot problem that became a hot news item prior to his getting drafted. That slid him down a few picks. Buddy Ryan grabbed him and Keith had a quality career. I don't recall any foot issues hurting him.

These guys could slide or go right where expected. Teams are very funny when it comes to medical issues.


* Darren McFadden is one of the strangest prospects I can remember. Some people feel like he is a great player and no-brainer top 5 pick. Mike Mayock thinks he's good, but has concerns. Brian Baldinger thinks he'll be a colossal bust.

I popped in the tape last night to take another look at Darren. He is a special player, but he does have issues. He is fast and makes a lot of big plays. He can be physical. He's got a great stiff arm. Darren just looks natural on the field.

On the downside, I've seen him fumble several times. He doesn't show great vision or elusiveness. I am curious how he'll fit into a conventional offense at the NFL level.

I would not spend a top ten pick on him, but I would use 11-20 to get him. Very talented player, but he does need to be used creatively.


QUICK HITS

* Please keep Mario Manningham away from the microphone this week.

* Please keep DeSean Jackson near the dinner table.

* Is the world coming to an end? Boise State, Vanderbilt, Troy, and Tennessee State are all likely to have a player drafted before Miami. The list gets even crazier for Florida State. How the mighty have fallen...

___________________________________

4-19-08

* Did Miami GM Jeff Ireland slip up with his "pillar of defense" comment or was that a clever hoax? After consulting with Mulder and Scully, as well as the Lone Gunmen, I have come to the conclusion that it was a legitimate mistake. Had it been Tuna, I might have gone the other way. Ireland isn't a media guy. He largely worked in the shadows in Dallas. I think he slipped up. His reaction is either very sincere or he should go to Hollywood. I don't think Hayden Christensen has ever acted that well and look at his career.

Assuming that was a slip up, who is this so called "pillar"? I think the target is Vern Gholston. Mainstream media calls him Vernon, but we at SNB prefer Vern. It has more panache.

Why Vern? He would fill the critical pass rushing LB spot that has been the key to Parcells teams in the past (Lawrence Taylor, Willie McGinest, Demarcus Ware). Gholston has an excellent combination of size, speed, and ability. You can't coach or teach what he has.

While Chris Long would also fit that role, and certainly makes sense, he has less upside. Chris might be the safer pick, but he is less likely of the two to develop into a dominant force that a unit can be built around. Check out the Pitt game (where he battled Jeff Otah quite a bit). Chris had 3 tackles. He made no big plays. Against a mediocre Maryland team, he racked up 10 tackles and 2 sacks. In the bowl game against Texas Tech, Long had 4 tackles and no sacks (TT threw 69 passes). Coming into 2007, Long had 8 career sacks. He did have a great season, but he's not been a dominant player for his whole career.

Gholston had a sack in the Natl Championship game. He had 3 in the big win over Michigan that put them in the title game. He had 4 against Wisconsin's big OL. Vern had 8.5 sacks in 2006. He had the better Combine showing, out-lifting and out-running Long.

Parcells loves talent. People have this perception of him as being surrounded by overachievers, but that really isn't the case. Bill believes that he and his coaching staff can get the best out of players through teaching and motivation. Ireland is the GM and Tony Sparano is the coach, but you can bet they will be taking marching orders from Tuna.

Gholston is the bigger talent and that will get him selected with the top pick. I'd bet a bottle of Sex Panther cologne on it.


* Jerod Mayo vs Curtis Lofton

We've had Lofton ranked as the #1 ILB for quite a while now. He had a terrific season and looked good in his workouts. He really just looks the part.

Mayo had a solid year, but not much fanfare was made of his coming out. He played well, but wasn't so good that it became a big story. He sort of flew under the radar for a while.

That isn't true anymore. For some reason, there has been a buildup of hype or support or whatever you want to call it for Mayo. You now see him going in the top 20 in mock drafts. People are linking him with Detroit at pick 15. I like Jerod, but that is a bit much. I don't see anyway he's worth a pick that high.

Lofton has a thick build that makes him a perfect fit for MLB. He hits with natural power. He's the better hitter and tackler of the two. Curtis also had better stats:

Lofton -- 157 tackles (94 solo), 3 INTs, 4 FFs, 10.5 TFLs, 2 PDs

Mayo -- 140 tackles (80 solo), 1 INT, 1 FF, 8.5 TFLs, 3 PDs


So Curtis is the better player? Not so fast...with fast being the key word. Check out the workout numbers for each guy. Mayo is a very good athlete. He ran a 4.55 at the Combine. He had a 42 inch vertical at his Pro Day. Lofton ran a 4.81 at the Combine. He cut that down to about 4.7 at his Pro Day, but that still puts him behind Jerod by .15. They way about the same (240-ish).

You can make an argument for each player. Jerod Mayo is the athletic player who will appeal to Tampa 2 teams. He also could play WLB for some teams. Lofton is the better run stuffer and is a more instinctive player. Both players are quite good. It is simply a matter of which one fits your particular scheme the best. And who knows...Dan Connor, our #3 ILB, might end up being the best of them all.

___________________________________

4-18-08

* NFL teams love versatility. Would the Pats have won 3 SBs in 4 years without being able to move around guys like Mike Vrabel, Troy Brown, and Willie McGinest? Not likely.

Here are some versatile players in the upcoming Draft. They not only play multiple positions, but do so at a high level:

Jameel McClain - OLB/ILB/DE - Syracuse --- Jameel is not a great athlete or pass rusher, but he's good no matter where you play him or what you ask him to do. In '06 they had him focus on rushing the passer and he delivered 9.5 sacks. In '07 he played more LB. His tackle total went up and he picked off a pass. Put on tape of Syracuse and you'll see #52 making plays all over the field. I could see 3-4 teams being really interested in him in the 5th round area.

Kenny Moore - RB/WR/RS - Wake Forest --- Kenny is the only player in the Draft that I know of with 24 or more carries in 2 games and 11 or more catches in 4 games. Played RB at HS. Bounced between RB and WR prior to 2007. This year he caught 98 passes, a school record. Very good slot receiver. Good PR. A creative offensive team can line him up in the backfield, the slot, or out wide. Probably a 5th rounder.

Adam Bishop - TE/FB/H-back - Nevada --- Line this kid up wherever you want. Just give him someone to block. Adam lacks top size and athletic ability, but he's a terrific blocker. Some teams will want him at FB. Other teams will want him on the line. Should also be a good ST'er. Late rounder at best, but the kind of role player who can make a team.

Quintin Demps - S/CB/PR/KOR - UTEP --- Q made plays no matter where they put him. He spent most of his career at FS. Moved to CB due to injuries this year and still made plays. Ran back 2 INTs for 100 yd TDs. Ran back 3 INTs for TDs in his career. Also took back a fumble and KOR for TDs. One of those guys who just makes things happen.

Adam Kraus - C/G - Michigan
--- A lot of OL switch positions in their career. Kraus moved from LG to C midseason and didn't miss a beat. He played well at both spots. Late round type of prospect, but could be a good fit in a zone blocking offense.


___________________________________

4-17-08

* I popped in the Hampton/Morgan State game last night to take another look at some good I-AA prospects.

Kendall Langford is the key guy. He is a 3-4 DE for the Hampton Pirates. Kendall is a legit 6'5 1/2, 287. He was born to play 3-4 DE. He's talented, strong, and athletic enough to play LDE in a 4-3 or also DT in a 4-3.

Langford is an okay pass rusher, but he doesn't fly upfield and just terrorize QBs. He plays a lot of 2-gap style defense. He comes off the ball, reads the play, and then works to the ball. He's got a very good motor and runs well for a big guy. He chased down a RB and tackled him right at the sideline. Langford is a bit raw in terms of technique. He's so used to being the best player on the field that he's relied on his physical ability most of the time. With good coaching, he could become a very good starting DL. I think he's a 3rd round player, but a 3-4 team could covet him as a DE and take him as early as the bottom of round 2.

The RDE for Hampton is Marcus Dixon. Many of you will recall his personal story from his HS days in Georgia. I won't go into that here. I want to focus on him as a football player, as I'm sure Marcus would prefer. He's 6'4, 294. He led the team in TFLs and sacks in 2007. Marcus is an athletic guy. He has some burst off the ball. He'll use a spin move (not exactly Dwight Freeney, though). He looks natural when he drops back into coverage on zone blitzes.

I'm not sure what Dixon's ideal fit is in the NFL. I think 3-4 DE is the best bet. I don't see him as a starting caliber player at this point, but he does have upside. I'll be cheering for Marcus to make it in the league.


* The lone Morgan State player I checked out was RB Chad Simpson. He is a fun RB to watch. Chad has an interesting running style. He mainly runs from the I-formation, a rarity these days. He is strong, but slippery. Tacklers seem to slide off him. Chad is elusive enough to make guys miss, but even the ones who do hit him don't always faze him. He is deceptively strong. He has great balance. Chad isn't a dynamic player, but could be a good role player in the NFL. He's got pretty good vision. He cuts pretty well. I wish I had a better feel for his ability as a receiver. Chad only caught 9 passes this year. He did run for 1402 yards and he does have some KOR ability. Possible late rounder.


* I caught a bit of Delaware State WR Shaheer McBride the other night. He's a talented kid, but may lack the athleticism to get drafted. McBride is 6'2, 205. He's strong. He catches a lot of short throws and is then expected to produce RAC yards. He's a bit elusive, but usually had to rely on his strength and effort to fight for yards. The one thing I like about that is that McBride hasn't developed the bad habit of dancing around. He catches the ball and gets upfield. That will serve him well when he's in an NFL Training Camp. He has some PR ability as well, but isn't special.


* Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly ran again for scouts on Wednesday. He ran about a 4.65 on Astroturf. That translates to a 4.7, which is what he ran on Fieldturf. Malcolm...you are a 4.7 guy. Learn it, know it, live it.

The teams in attendance were CLE, GB, and NYG. Hmmm. I think the Browns are genuinely interested. The problem is that they traded away their early picks. They have to decide what value Malcolm has in a trade-up scenario. Or maybe that scout was just bored and wanted to go to Norman, OK.

As for the Packers and G-Men...smokescreen time. Think about it. Those are the final two picks in Round 1. The teams might genuinely be interested, but it reeks of them trying to send a signal to teams below them that they'll need to trade up for Malcolm if they really want him. It does tell you that teams are thinking Malcolm will still go in the late 1st/early 2nd area.

QUICK HITS

* Could Phillip Merling slide out of the 1st? He had the sports hernia surgery. We've also heard he tested positive for drugs a couple of times while at Clemson.

* There is now a lot of talk about Jerod Mayo going in the top 25. I'll be discussing him and Curtis Lofton in my next write-up.

* Teams that pass on RB Rashard Mendenhall are going to regret it.

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4-15-08

* Next week we'll start to hear a lot of talk about trades. Most of it will be mindless speculation, but you can bet NFL teams will be talking to each other about potential deals.

There generally isn't enough time on Draft day to pull off a complicated trade. Most of the groundwork is laid prior the actual event. Team A will call Team B and just talk about some possible scenarios. Teams do this to find out who wants to move up or down and who is willing to move up or down.

The two key teams in the top 20 are the Bills and Eagles. Most of the other teams have prospects that are likely to be on the board who fit what they are looking for. This assumes that there are no shocking picks.

The Bills would love a WR. There isn't one generally considered worth pick 11. They could reach for Devin Thomas. Heck, that might not be a bad idea. They could also move down 5-10 spots and take the best big receiver on the board. The Bills traded away some picks for Marcus Stroud and may want to get some extra choices back. Devin Thomas could easily still be on the board in the 15-20 range. Or Limas Sweed could be their target. They'd have options and the pick would be better value.

The Eagles are looking like a hard luck team right now. They seem to want an OT. It seems less and less likely that Chris Williams or Jeff Otah will make it to 19. The Eagles could move up to get them, but I'm not sure teams will want to deal without getting a substantial price. Any of the teams from 12-18 could teke an OT. Some flat out need one. That's a heck of a gauntlet to have to get through.

Andy Reid talked at the owners meetings about the Eagles need to improve at DT. They also went and had a workout with Kentwan Balmer, projected to go in the 20-30 range. The Eagles have had private visits with numerous top WRs. Yesterday on Sirius Radio GM Tom Heckert talked a lot about the Eagles possibly picking a WR.

I take that as the Eagles letting teams in the 20-30 range know that if you want Balmer or a top WR, you better be prepared to call Philly about a trade. There is a real good chance the board will not look good for the Eagles when pick 19 comes up. I think the Eagles will want to move back, but only if it is worth their while. Adding a 2nd rounder and dropping 8-10 spots is probably ideally what they'd like. At that point, they could grab a WR or CB. Who knows with the Eagles...they could go all over the place. The point is that they wouldn't be reaching at 19 and would have an additional pick to use.

Teams in the 12-20 range need to talk to Buffalo. Teams in the 20-30 range need to call Philadelphia.


* I watched tape of the Appalachian State Mountaineers to take another look at their 3 prospects.

WR Dexter Jackson is fast. Forget about 40 times. He plays the fastest of any player I've studied this year. Dexter absolutely "eats up the cushion" when he takes off. What I talking about is when you see DBs line up 10 yards away from him...Dexter gets to them so quickly they struggle to turn and get in position to run with him. He is the only guy I've seen all year with another gear. He can be running with a DB downfield and just separate when he wants. This is rare stuff.

Dexter isn't the most polished receiver. He does need some work. He's not just a burner, though. He'll work the middle on crossing routes. He'll block on run plays (okay for a little guy). A team would use him mostly in the slot, but would throw a deep ball or two to him every game. He has big play potential.

He is also a PR. This skill needs work. Dexter has a habit of trying to turn every punt into a TD. He circles back and reverses field and tries all kinds of crazy things. He must be more disciplined and run N-S. All that elaborate stuff he tries blows up on him anyway. Just get up the field. He might be a 3rd round pick, but I could also see him slip to the 4th if teams feel like he needs a lot of work.

FS Corey Lynch is a very good college player. He picked off 24 passes in his career and was a major leader on a team that won 3-straight I-AA titles. Corey tested better than I expected at his Pro Day. He showed how quick and agile he can be. His speed is still only okay.

Lynch has great instincts and anticipation. He reads plays well and gets a good break on the ball. I think he can make it in the NFL as a pass defender. My concern is his hitting/tackling. He's not a powerful guy. He doesn't put guys down with ease. Can he tackle Brandon Jacobs or Plaxico Burress out in space?

I think of Corey as a late round prospect. He's the kind of kid that some coaching staff could fall in love with and take as early as the 5th round.

The other prospect is LG Kerry Brown. He isn't a road grader. Don't look at him if you want a Larry Allen type. Kerry is meant to be on a running team that likes their OG's to block LBs a lot. He's good on the second level. I could see Denver or Indy very much liking him. Late round target.


* So Mario Manningham went on Sirius the other day and made a complete fool of himself. Hmmm...what do we make of this? It isn't the end of the world for Mario, but it doesn't help his case. What is the old quote..."better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." Mario would have done wisely to heed that advice or to at least be prepared for some tough questions. I can't imagine he thought people would only ask him about good stuff with the offseason he's had. How will he handle any rookie hazing? How will he handle adverse press? How will he handle nasty fans?


* I posted the profile for Mario Urrutia yesterday. He's the huge Louisville WR who came out early. Mario at his best is very intriguing. I watched him vs MTSU early in the year. He caught a slant and took it about 70 yards for a TD. Ran hard, but wasn't super fast. It was impressive to see a 6'5, 232 lb WR outrun the small DBs. He caught another slant later when the ball was thrown behind him. Compare that to the end of the year when he played as though he didn't care what happened. The ultimate sin in football is not giving full effort. I'm not talking about going 70% on a run play to the other side. I'm talking about jogging on a pass route where the ball came your way. It was picked off and Mario didn't hustle in pursuit. That is as bad as it gets.

I tend to think I wouldn't spend a pick on the kid. Could you ever really rely on him? Still, that size and skill could be too good to pass up in the 6th or 7th round. Make sure he has good coaching and veteran leaders to work with him.


___________________________________

4-13-08

* One of the more interesting subplots of the top ten will be to see who goes first...Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis.

Dorsey has the bigger reputation. He's the star DT. At his best, Glenn could be a Warren Sapp type of player. He is an upfield, disruptive force when healthy. He's quick, powerful, and has a great motor.

The problem with Glenn is that he's had some injury issues. If a guy is getting banged up playing 12 college games, what is he going to do in 16 pro games + preseason and training camp. Also, there are no Tulanes or Louisiana Techs where he can sit and watch the young guys play the whole 4th quarter. Durability is a hugely underrated part of NFL evaluations.

Sedrick Ellis doesn't have as much potential as Glenn, but he's the safer pick. He's been very productive throughout his career. He went to the Senior Bowl and dominated. He has no injury concerns. Some teams will also value him more becuase he's the stronger and more physical of the two.

I won't be the least bit surprised to see the Falcons take Ellis at pick 3. Sedrick would seem to fit better what I think Mike Smith is looking for in a DT. Ellis could be a very good 4-3 NT. Both guys are terrific prospects and should be very good pros.


* We hear all the time about "workout warriors". This term has a negative connotation. Sometimes that isn't fair. There are some very good prospects who also happen to be really good athletes. Let's talk about some guys who could go earlier than expected because of really good workouts:

TE Dustin Keller - Could be sneak into the late 1st round? Even though he's only 6'2, 240, that is possible. Keller is a gifted receiver and top notch athlete. I think he'll go early 2nd, but some team that is looking for an offensive weapon could easily pick him in the 27-31 range.

RB Chris Johnson - Anytime you run the fastest 40 in the history of the Combine, you are going to be a coveted player. Chris needs work as a RB, but he is an above average receiver and explosive kick returner. Trung Canidate was a late 1st round pick when he came out, largely due to his speed. Johnson could also be a surprise pick from some team.

LB Tavares Gooden - I don't see Tavares as having a shot to get into the 1st. He's not a great player or great athlete. I do think he could go in the first half of Round 2. Tampa 2 teams really love athletic MLBs. Other teams could value him as a WLB.

CB Antwaun Molden - CB's that are 6'1 and almost 200 lbs and run under 4.4 are always highly sought after. Molden looks good on game tape and in workouts. The problem is trying to figure out his value. If he went to Kentucky, he might be a top 15 pick. He went to Eastern Kentucky and that is a problem. He faced lesser competition. Unlike DRC, he didn't play in the Senior Bowl, so teams haven't had a chance to see him facing top flight receivers. Do you take a chance on Molden with a late 1st? Is he more of a safe pick in the 2nd? Does he last to the 3rd round? I hate unknowns. As much as I value his ability I don't know that I'd be comfortable spending a top 40 pick on him. A lot of teams are bringing him in for visits. He might just sneak into the top 40.

S Tyrell Johnson - There is no clear-cut top Safety this year. Kenny Phillips has the biggest rep. I like DaJuan Morgan the best. Tyrell could be the #1 target for some teams. He was very productive this year. He played his best games against Texas and Tennessee. Johnson had a great showing at the Combine. Predicting where Safeties will be picked is hard. Teams value them oddly every year. I was surprised to see Roman Harper go as early as he did in 2006. I was caught off guard by Gerald Alexander last year. Johnson could be a top 40 pick and the #1 Safety off the board.

LB Marcus Howard - Talk about confusing prospects...Marcus might take the cake. He had 10.5 sacks this year as a DE at Georgia. He then went to the Combine and measured in at 6'0 1/2, 239. That is LB size. Marcus ran a blazing 40 and had a very good workout. There are a couple of problems with Marcus. He only really got on the field for one year at UGA. He was a backup in the past. He doesn't have a ton of experience. His size is awkward. He isn't a good fit for OLB in a 3-4. Thos teams generally like big OLBs. They prefer guys to be 6'3, 255...something in that range. Moving him to ILB is a big change from DE. Does he have the instincts to play inside? I don't know what his ideal fit is or where teams will value him. I don't think of him as a top 75 prospect, but some team may value his speed and athletic ability and reach for him.

QUICK HITS

* Sam Baker is being looked at by teams as a G and C, as well as OT. He might be a very good C.

* Tyvon Branch might be better suited to play S. I haven't seen any specific mention of teams looking at him there.

* I watched tape of Steve Slaton the other day. He has his issues, but Slaton is really flying under the radar. He could be a great pick in the late 3rd or early 4th.

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4-11-08

* So what the heck do we make of Malcolm Kelly and Reggie Smith's Pro Day, aka pro daze?

I didn't write about this yesterday because I wanted some time to dwell on the issue (i.e. hold a rock, paper, scissors tournament). After thinking about it and talking to Matt, I've come to the conclusion that I still think of Malcolm as worthy of a late 1st / early 2nd round grade.

What did we expect from him? If he ran a 4.55, I'd have thought he was in play to be a top 20 pick. He ran about a 4.7 (the number varies based on who reports it). One thing in his favor is that Malcolm weighed in at 227.

Most guys who are worried about running a good 40 will come in as light as possible. That gives you a bogus read. If a player times at 215, but plays at 225, you are getting false information. Malcolm is a 220+ receiver. He didn't try to hide that. He ran at his normal weight. That 4.7 is legit in that sense.

I never thought of Malcolm as a speed receiver. He's always been a big guy with great hands...a workhorse receiver who will move the chains and make the occasional big play. His workout did not change that at all. Malcolm can still be a possession receiver that catches 60-80 passes. He's still a good redzone target. He has great hands. This kid makes some incredible catches. A slow 40 didn't change any of that.

Also, Malcolm had a 3-cone time of 7.00. That shows you he's quick, agile, and has good change-of-direction ability. Those are key elements for a WR. That allows him to make a sudden move and get free from a DB for a step or two. That is the kind of "being open" that translates well to the NFL.

Compare that to Dwayne Jarrett from USC last year. He ran a 4.57 at 219 lbs. That's good enough speed. He only had a 3-cone time of 7.28. Dwayne struggled to adjust to the NFL because he couldn't shake DBs in a tight area and get free for a step or two.

NFL teams still have the question of Malcolm's knees. If they are a major concern, he could be in for a major slide on draft day. If his knees check out okay, I think he'll be off the board by pick 45. Consider this about Malcolm...he's 60 pounds heavier than DeSean Jackson. He's 40 pounds heavier than Mario Manningham. Teams love speedy receivers, but don't always like them as smaller guys. The NFL is a 3rd down league. Who would you want on a key 3rd down, Kelly or Jackson or Manningham? Get the "little" guys when you want big play potential, but get the big guy to move the chains.

Let's compare Malcolm to a couple of big receivers. Limas Sweed has size and speed. Shouldn't that make him a better prospect? I'm sure some will feel that way. I don't. Limas is a sloppy route runner. He knows he's bigger than DBs and runs as if he wants the QB to just put the ball up high, knowing he can go over the DB to get the ball. That can work in college, but not the NFL. You have to outmuscle guys in the NFL. You have to battle for the ball. Limas' best days came against poor or mediocre competition. He caught 4 passes vs Oklahoma in the last two years combined. He was a non-factor. Kelly had 5 catches for 105 yards and a TD this year. Limas catches a lot of short or deep stuff when I watch him. Malcolm works pro routes. You see him run a lot of slants. WR screens and go routes are great against Rice, but don't translate to the NFL. Sweed has more natural athletic ability, but I think he could have a tough transition to the pro game.

What about Adarius Bowman? He's big and ran a 4.7. Why is he ranked so low? Malcolm runs like a possession receiver, but also plays like one. He has great hands. He can make incredible catches. He runs good routes. He's used to working to get open. He is quick and can shake defenders. Bowman has inconsistent hands. That is a terrible thing to say about a guy without speed. Bowman catches a lot of WR screens. He's not a great route runner. Getting open is something he would have to really work on. Also, he has character concerns.

Even with the slow 40 time, we're keeping Malcolm as our #2 WR. That may be crazy (i.e. dumb), but we're sticking with what we saw on tape. Ask Ernest Wilford or Keyshawn Johnson if a big receiver can be good in the NFL without ideal speed. Just make sure you have a free month in case Keyshawn actually answers you.


* On to Reggie Smith. He ran a 4.61. That absolutely shocked me. We're talking about a 192 pound DB with good athletic ability. I figured Reggie for a sub 4.5 guy. Oops.

His 40 definitely hurts his value. Big time. Bill Polian's theory is that CBs have to run 4.55 or less. Ummm...how does Safety sound, Reggie?

The good thing for Reggie is that he's played both S and CB. He has potential at both spots. Still, 4.61 isn't ideal for either spot. We had Reggie pegged as an early 2nd round player. That will change now. He's got to fall. His quickness and agility is ideal for CB. His 40 says Safety. He's not an impact hitter, though.

The one thing that bothers me is that Reggie looked sorta fast on game tape. Was this just a sloppy 40? Do I kill this kid's value? I'm comfortable with my thoughts on Malcolm Kelly, but not Reggie Smith. I need to go back and review more tape on him before I make any final judgements.


* So the Dolphins are negotiating with Jake Long...interesting. I'm not sure what to make of this. I don't think Jake is worth the #1 pick. He's not as good a player as Joe Thomas from last year, who went #3. Jake isn't a sure-fire LT. That bothers me.

On the flip side, the Dolphins OL has been a problem since the departure of Richmond Webb and Keith Sims. Long might be able to play LT, but even if you only put him at RT, he would be a major building block. You'd feel like that spot is safe for years to come.

The LT question has to be taken in context. Parcells and Sparano are not going to have some kind of crazy passing attack. Their offense will be based on a power running game. Long might be good enough to play LT in that kind of an offense. Go back and look at the guys Parcells had play LT for him. You won't find any Orlando Pace types. He had good players, but not elite pass blockers. Flozell Adams and Bruce Armstrong are the best LTs he had. Both were good to very good players, but neither was a Pace or Walter Jones kind of player.

I still think Jake Long is questionable at #1, but you certainly can make an argument for him.


* Adam Schefter reported that LB/DE Quentin Groves recently had heart surgery. It wasn't a critical procedure, but rather preventative. I won't pretend to be a doctor and know what this means. I know that I'd be nervous about considering Groves as a top 20 pick after knowing that doctors were just working on his ticker. NFL teams will have their doctors research the heck out of this, but you could see him slide a bit.


* Matt and I are putting up player notes on a daily basis as we start to wrap things up. Let us know if you have any questions.

scoutsnotebook@gmail.com

We should have a new mock draft posted on Sunday.

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Around the NFL

by Tommy Lawlor


Instant Analysis: Asante Samuel to the Eagles

The book on Samuel: Very productive. Has 16 INTs over the last two seasons. Has also been credited with 42 passes defensed and 102 solo tackles. He is at his best playing off the ball and reacting to the receiver. Asante gets a very quick break on the ball. Excellent first step. Has good situational awareness. Plays the chains, so to speak. Very good hands. Plays the ball well. Has his eyes in the backfield a lot. Will take chances and can get burned. Doesn't play the run aggressively, but is okay at tackling receivers.

Not the biggest, fastest, or most athletic CB, but has an uncanny knack for playing the ball and making plays.



Why would the Eagles add a starting CB when they already have Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown? There are two main possibilities:

1. The Eagles keep Lito and have the best trio of CBs in the NFL. They can shift Lito to RCB and move Sheldon to the slot. That gives them an outstanding pair of starting CBs and Sheldon Brown to work the middle. Brown is the best hitter, tackler, and blitzer of the group and could be a real force in the slot. Lito and Asante are both excellent cover guys and playmakers.

Philly's defense is predicated on turnovers. Last year the Eagles were one of the worst teams in the NFL at taking the ball away. This is the area where Samuel excels. The Eagles may have felt like he was just too good to pass up. Also, Sheppard has missed games each of the last three seasons (14 total).

2. The Eagles could also shop Lito in a trade, maybe trying to land a WR or DE. They could then add a #3 CB in the Draft. The CB class looks very talented and deep. When healthy, Sheppard is an outstanding corner. Teams could really value him. There have been reports that he isn't happy with his contract.


The Eagles added arguably the most prized player in the whole FA class. The last time that happened, they went to the Super Bowl. I'm sure Samuel hopes things work out better for him than they did for the recently released Jevon Kearse.



Free Agency Report

A couple of notes. This is a very weak class. You may look at the lists and be surprised by some of the rankings. That is due to teams re-signing or tagging the best players.

I really take a couple of factors into account. Injury history and age are overlooked by many fans and media analysts. What's past is prologue. You don't just go for a player because of what he did. You're guessing what he will do in the upcoming season and the future.

These lists aren't about reputation. They were compiled through research and film study. I don't want to mislead you as if I've studied each player for 5 games. Most of my time has been dedicated to the Draft. I have taken the time to watch the players I had questions about.


Blue Chip Players (Pro Bowl type players)

WR Randy Moss

OG Alan Faneca

LB Lance Briggs

CB Asante Samuel

OT Flozell Adams



Red Chip Players (Good starters or players with excellent potential)


RB Michael Turner

WR Donte Stallworth

WR DJ Hackett

WR Bernard Berrian

TE Alge Crumpler


DT Rod Coleman

DE Justin Smith

DE Antwan Odom

DE Bobby McCray

DE Marques Douglas

LB Calvin Pace

LB DeMorrio Williams

S Madieu Williams

S Gibril Wilson

CB Brian Kelly

CB Ty Law



Important Role Players

WR/KOR Andre Davis

RB/KOR Rock Cartwright

DE Travis Laboy

DE/LB Chris Clemons

DT Spencer Johnson

DT Randy Starks

RB/RS Mewelde Moore


TOP 5 BY POSITION

WR
1. Randy Moss
2. Donte Stallworth
3. Bernard Berrian
4. Bryant Johnson
5. Ernest Wilford


TE
1. Alge Crumpler
2. Ben Troupe
3. Eric Johnson
4. Bubba Franks
5. Michael Gaines

RB
1. Michael Turner
2. Julius Jones
3. DeShaun Foster
4. Tatum Bell
5. Chris Brown

FB
1. Tony Richardson
2. Thomas Tapeh
3. Brad Hoover
4. Cecil Sapp
5. Dan Kreider

QB
1. Daunte Culpepper
2. Byron Leftwich
3. Todd Collins
4. Josh McCown
5. Billy Volek

OT
1. Flozell Adams
2. Maurice Williams
3. LJ Shelton
4. Fred Miller
5. Kwame Harris

OG
1. Alan Faneca
2. Damien Woody
3. Jake Scott
4. Justin Smiley
5. Jacob Bell

OC
1. Jeff Faine
2. Alex Stepanovich
3. John Wade
4. Casey Wiegmann
5. Jeremy Newberry


DE
1. Justin Smith
2. Antwan Odom
3. Travis Laboy
4. Bobby McCray
5. Marques Douglas

DT
1. Rod Coleman
2. Brian Young
3. Randy Starks
4. Darwin Walker
5. Chartric Darby

LB
1. Lance Briggs
2. Calvin Pace
3. DeMorrio Williams
4. Clark Haggans
5. Boss Bailey

ILB
1. Kawika Mitchell
2. Mark Simoneau
3. Dontarrious Thomas
4. Tedy Bruschi
5. Rob Morris

S
1. Madieu Williams
2. Gibril Wilson
3. Eugene Wilson
4. Chris Crocker
5. Will Demps

CB
1. Asante Samuel
2. Brian Kelly
3. Ty Law
4. Drayton Florence
5. Travis Fisher

RS
1. Andre Davis
2. Rock Cartwright
3. Mewelde Moore
4. Dexter Wynn
5. Maurice Hicks


There are quite a few guys who are injured. I didn't rank them because health will make or break them.

* ILB Dan Morgan
* DT Booger McFarland
* DE Jevon Kearse
* LB/DE Roosevelt Colvin


Players with big reputations, but issues:

* Tommy Kelly - is he a DE or DT?
* Kendrell Bell - is there anything left?
* Kevin Carter - worth bringing in?
* Eddie Kennison - old and injured
* Justin McCareins - descending numbers each of the last several years
* Brandon Lloyd - turd with good hands that I would not touch
* Jerry Porter - I love the size and talent, but there are character issues. Is that simply due to a highly dysfunctional environment in Oakland? Could be a player of value, but teams will have to do homework. Will turn 30 this summer.


Players possibly available in trade:

* WR Larry Fitzgerald - I truly doubt this, but the rumors persist
* WR Roy Williams - Rod Marinelli's lips say no, but his body says yes (only to the trade, you perverts)
* DT Shaun Rogers - very talented, but will take the occasional month off
* DT Marcus Stroud - very talented, but has some injury and character issues
* WR Chad Johnson - Marvin Lewis emphatically says no, but the right offer might change that
* ILB Jonathan Vilma - Sounds as if he's almost a Lion already
* DT Dwayne Robertson - good player, but doesn't fit the 3-4
* WR Javon Walker - might also get cut...injury issues


BEST VALUES

* S Gibril Wilson
* DE Travis Laboy
* LB DeMorrio Williams


Random Notes

* RB Michael Turner makes me nervous. He's talented, but a career backup. He has 228 career carries, 6 TDs, and 11 receptions. I'd be careful about giving him a huge deal as the "go-to" guy.

* The pickings at FB and ILB are terrible. I put Kawika Mitchell inside because he played there at KC.

* Damien Woody played RT for the Lions down the stretch last year. Some teams may want him there instead of OG.

* Antwan Odom is either a one-year wonder or a player on the rise. Depends on if you ask me or his agent. He had 4.5 sacks in 36 games, then 8 in 2007. I just can't count on that guy to put up huge numbers based on one good season. He is talented and worthy of a starting spot, but he isn't anything special from what I've seen. It could be that he took a couple of years to put it all together and is only going to improve, but I simply wouldn't give him a huge deal.


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